| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE OZEMPIC WAR BEGINS — “Biden proposes Medicare and Medicaid cover costly weight-loss drugs for millions of obese Americans,” by AP’s Amanda Seitz: “The costly proposal from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sets the stage for a potential showdown between the powerful pharmaceutical industry and ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., an outspoken opponent of the weight-loss drugs [like Ozempic or Wegovy]. … [I]t would cost taxpayers as much as $35 billion over the next decade.” MAIL CALL — “One of Trump’s Alleged Attempted Assassins Sent Me a Letter,” by Ankush Khardori: “[RYAN] ROUTH’s new correspondence may shed some light on what drove him to make an attempt on Trump’s life — though we should also approach it with a measure of caution.”
|  Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 3, 2024. | Matt Rourke/AP | NEW TARIFFS IN TOWN — In a shocking-but-not-surprising announcement last night, President-elect DONALD TRUMP announced on Truth Social that he plans to slap hefty tariffs on America’s three top trading partners on his first day in office. Trump said he would sign “all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States” until the countries clamp down on drugs and migrants coming across the U.S. border. Furthermore, he wrote that China would be receiving “an additional 10% tariff” on top of any already in place unless the country implements a death penalty for drug dealers connected to the fentanyl trade. First, some facts. As WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Andrew Restuccia note, “Mexico, China and Canada are the nation’s top three suppliers of imported goods, accounting for about 42% of imports to the U.S. this year through September, according to census data.” Together, they account for nearly $1.5 trillion in yearly imports — ranging from high-value goods like cars and electrical equipment to commodities like oil to innumerable grocery items and household goods. “The tariffs would have dramatic implications for American industries, including auto manufacturers, farmers and food packagers, which busily ship parts, materials and finished goods across U.S. borders,” NYT’s Ana Swanson writes. “Adding 25 percent to the price of imported products could make many too costly, potentially crippling trade around the continent.” Wild stuff, to be sure. But here are some questions we’re keeping in mind this morning: — Is he serious? Trump made similar threats last time he was in the White House, but never quite followed through. At various points during the campaign he floated a 200 percent tariff on Mexican cars, an up-to-100 percent tariff on other Mexican products and levies of 60 percent or more on Chinese products. None of those ever came to pass. He did levy during his first term more targeted tariffs on China, and his threats against our North American neighbors made way for one of his bipartisan policy victories: the negotiation of NAFTA. So forgive XI JINPING and CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM for taking last night’s threats as the beginning of a negotiation — as Trump himself hinted in his posts. — Can he do it? The answer seems to be yes. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives a president sweeping authority to declare an emergency in response to a “unusual and extraordinary threat ... to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States” and proceed to do just what Trump is threatening. As former Commerce official BILL REINSCH told POLITICO recently: “I’d argue it’s a perversion of the statute, but I would also acknowledge that there’s pretty clear language in IEEPA that authorizes him to do that.” The only question is whether the courts could potentially intercede. — How are the markets reacting? So far, they aren’t exactly freaking out, suggesting that the risk of tariffs have already been largely priced in by investors and that they are counting on Treasury secretary-designate SCOTT BESSENT and others to prevent anything truly rash. The dollar ticked up overnight relative to key trading partners, while Dow and S&P 500 futures have shown little slippage (though global stock markets were more volatile). Treasury bond yields also ticked up only slightly, suggesting the markets aren’t seeing a major inflationary threat. As one expert in the Chinese markets told Bloomberg overnight, “At the moment, anything less than the 60% tariff rate [Trump had previously threatened] should be seen as a positive.” Indeed, initial statements out of the Chinese government have been measured. — How’s the Hill reacting? Again, the lack of reaction has been telling. A handful of Democrats — particularly from border states — are lamenting Trump’s tariff threats. But there have been even fewer on the Republican side volunteering to defend them. Only a couple of MAGA die-hards, like incoming Ohio Sen. BERNIE MORENO, gave unprompted praise: “We finally have a president who will fight back & let the CCP know that until they stop flooding our country with fentanyl, there will be consequences!” he posted on X last night. — What does this mean for the USMCA? As we mentioned, one of Trump’s clear first-term triumphs was negotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Now he says he’s hell-bent on violating it, with unpredictable consequences. Our colleague Victoria Guida told us that with any attempt to levy new tariffs, the questions of legal authority will be crucial, “as companies — including U.S. companies that import as part of their production process — could have grounds to sue” to challenge provisions that renege on prior trade agreements. — What does it mean for consumers? What’s clear is that if Trump goes through with it, average Americans could take it on the chin. Department stores are full of affordable Chinese-made goods, grocery stores are stocked with billions of dollars worth of Mexican produce, and gas pumps in many parts of the country are full of fuels refined from Canadian crude. The political risks are obvious. Trump owes his victory to folks who felt like they were paying too much for everything, and he promised to fix it. The MAGA faithful might forgive him for adding potentially hundreds of dollars a year in household costs, but those crossover voters who believed he’d make their grocery runs cheaper might not be so understanding. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Instagram Teen Accounts: a protected experience for teens, guided by parents
Teen Accounts are designed to address parents’ biggest concerns, with automatic protections for who can contact their teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
So parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
Learn more. | | | SMITH’S SWAN SONG — Yesterday, as expected, special counsel JACK SMITH moved to drop Trump’s election subversion indictment in Washington as well as the classified documents case in Florida. The Justice Department has a longstanding prohibition on prosecuting a sitting president, which Smith cited to the judges in both cases. Judge TANYA CHUTKAN, who has been overseeing the D.C. case, quickly granted Smith’s motion to dismiss. As our colleagues Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein note, the Florida request “is awaiting approval from a panel of appeals court judges.” The election case was dismissed “without prejudice,” meaning it could technically be brought back up after Trump leaves office. But some pretty obvious reasons why Trump critics should not be optimistic about that, including “the statutes of limitations, or [that] Trump might use his second term in office to further undermine the cases or pardon himself from the alleged crimes,” Kyle and Josh write. The big question now is whether or not Smith will take his remaining time on the job to finish reports on the two cases for submission to AG MERRICK GARLAND that could potentially be released publicly. We’ll note that Smith took pains in his filings yesterday to say that he stood by the merits of the indictments he secured. Those in and around Garland’s DOJ certainly hope he does. “Jack Smith should release his final report with as many details as possible,” former top DOJ spokesperson ANTHONY COLEY told us last night. “That’s important for historical purposes; to correct the false narrative that the DOJ wasn’t aggressively investigating Trump early on; and to further correct Trump’s lies that the prosecution was politically motivated.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Now that the Senate Republican leadership is set, attention turns to the Democrats. Elections have now been scheduled for Dec. 3, Ursula Perano reports, and while the top slots are not expected to be contested — Sens. CHUCK SCHUMER (N.Y.) and DICK DURBIN (Ill.) are expected to continue as Nos. 1 and 2 — there likely will be a race for the No. 3 slot soon to be vacated by the retiring Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (Mich.). Indications are that Sens. CORY BOOKER (N.J.) and AMY KLOBUCHAR (Minn.) will jump in, putting the winner in line to move up whenever Schumer, 74, and Durbin, 80, opt to step aside. At the White House President JOE BIDEN will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Later the president and First Lady JILL BIDEN will travel to Nantucket to celebrate Thanksgiving with family. VP KAMALA HARRIS and Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will depart San Francisco en route to Washington in the afternoon.
| | | | REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRANSITION LENSES
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Boris Epshteyn arrives with former President Donald Trump at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Aug. 3, 2023, in Arlington, Virginia. | Alex Brandon/AP | SELLING THE DRAMA — Trump’s legal team investigated one of his top aides, BORIS EPSHTEYN, over claims that he sought to sell his access to the president-elect during his transition process, CNN’s Sara Murray, Kristen Holmes and Kate Sullivan scooped. The internal investigation focused on multiple claims that Epshteyn had attempted to solicit aspiring staffers and would-be officials — including Trump’s Treasury pick, SCOTT BESSENT — for payment in exchange for promoting them for positions and connecting “individuals with people in the upcoming administration relevant to their industries. … In one instance, he requested as much as $100,000 per month in exchange for his services.” A longtime member of Trump’s inner circle, Epshteyn has been very involved in Trump’s transition process — reportedly backing then-Rep. MATT GAETZ for AG and clashing with ELON MUSK over candidates. “While Epshteyn has not been accused of illegal behavior, the decision to launch an internal investigation reflects the Trump team’s cautiousness around activity that could appear unsavory.” Though investigators reportedly recommended Epshteyn shouldn’t be employed by Trump entities, Trump spokesman STEVEN CHEUNG didn’t address his status in a statement: “As is standard practice, a broad review of the campaign’s consulting agreements has been conducted and completed, including as to Boris, among others,” Cheung said. Epshteyn has denied the allegations, per WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: “I am honored to work for President Trump and with his team,” he said in a statement. “These fake claims are false and defamatory and will not distract us from Making America Great Again.” FWIW … ERIC TRUMP responded to the reporting on Fox News with a veiled warning shot: “My father’s been incredibly clear: You do not do that under any circumstance. … I certainly hope the reporting’s false. I can also tell you if it’s true, that person will probably no longer be around.” More on Trump’s admin picks: - DNI: Former Hawaii Rep. TULSI GABBARD has assembled a network of PACs with a murky financial history, Mother Jones’ David Corn writes: “It’s uncommon for a politician to have three or four separate PACs. … Generally the more you have is because of obfuscation. It confuses people.”
- HHS: Trump is reportedly considering billionaire investor JIM O’NEILL, a close adviser to PETER THIEL, as deputy HHS secretary, David Lim, Adam Cancryn and Lauren Gardner report: “The former acting CEO of The Thiel Foundation and former CEO of anti-aging nonprofit SENS Research Foundation, O’Neill has advocated for people to be able to take medicines once their safety, but not effectiveness, is reviewed by the FDA.”
- CDC: NBC News’ Berkeley Lovelace Jr. looks at how former Rep. DAVE WELDON (R-Fla.) could work in tandem with Kennedy to make major changes to vaccine regulation: “As HHS secretary, Kennedy could replace members of the [CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] with anti-vaccine advocates who make recommendations that the CDC approves. … Alternatively, Weldon, as the CDC director, could reject any ACIP recommendations that the administration disapproves of.”
- Labor: “House Republicans Celebrate Another One of Their Own Getting Nominated for Trump’s Cabinet,” by NOTUS’ Reese Gorman
- Next up: Controversial Trump loyalist KASH PATEL is under consideration for a (non-Senate-confirmed) top FBI or DOJ spot, Axios’ Zachary Basu and Mike Allen scoop.
TRUMP CARDS
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a Mom's for Liberty function during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention near the Fiserv Forum on July 16, 2024, in Milwaukee. | Joe Lamberti/AP | LET THE SUNSHINE IN — With Trump snatching up Florida politicians for his second administration, the president-elect is now weighing in on the makeup of the Sunshine State’s House delegation, Kimberly Leonard and Gary Fineout report from Miami. Trump has endorsed both Florida CFO JIMMY PATRONIS and state Sen. RANDY FINE for the House over the last few days, though neither have formally announced congressional runs. The picks put him in a tense spot with Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who’s already tasked with finding a replacement for Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) should he be confirmed as secretary of State. The rocky road ahead: “The moves by Trump have already led to a dizzying flurry of activity for Florida Republicans with predictions that more could possibly be in store. ‘There may be more pieces of this puzzle we don’t see yet,’ said one senior Florida Republican official.” More top reads:
- Lend me your ear: Little-known outside of the president-elect’s inner circle, Trump campaign aide NATALIE HARP is poised to have be a major player in the White House “acting as the conduit for a largely unsupervised flow of information to the president,” Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write in a buzzy profile. Eyebrow-raising detail … “In 2023, Ms. Harp sent a series of letters to Mr. Trump that unnerved people around him …‘You are all that matters to me,’ she wrote in one of the letters … ‘I don’t ever want to let you down,’ Ms. Harp wrote, thanking Mr. Trump for being her ‘Guardian and Protector in this Life.’”
- Check, please: “Even Republicans want a check on Trump,” by WaPo’s Aaron Blake: “A CBS News-YouGov poll this weekend, for instance, shows three-quarters of Americans disagree with Trump’s claim that he should be able to appoint leaders of government agencies without Senate hearings or approval.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | POLICY CORNER IMMIGRATION FILES — Farm industry leaders are urging the incoming Trump administration to spare the agricultural sector from his promised “mass deportation” of illegal immigrants, Reuters’ Leah Douglas and Ted Hesson report: “Nearly half of the nation's approximately 2 million farm workers lack legal status, according to the departments of Labor and Agriculture, as well as many dairy and meatpacking workers. …The risk of enforcement against farms is likely low because of the necessity of the workers … But for farmworkers, the fear of enforcement can create chronic stress.” Related read: “H-1B hopefuls say they’re bracing for the impact of a second Trump term,” by NBC News’ Sakshi Venkatraman WHAT JIGAR SHAH’S UP TO — “Biden Offers $4.9 Billion In Financing for Grain Belt Power Line,” by Bloomberg’s Ari Natter CONGRESS
|  Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) speaks with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol April 25, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | TO THE LEFT — As lawmakers grapple with how to best approach the incoming Trump administration, some progressives are embracing a new approach to the President-elect: “Take his populist, working-class proposals at his word — or at least pretend to,” Holly Otterbein, Brittany Gibson and Meredith Lee Hill report. “It’s a change in strategy, emerging in private conversations among some liberal elected officials and operatives, that comes after years of resisting Trump ended with him returning to the White House.” What they’re saying: “President Trump announced during his campaign that he intended to put a 10 percent interest rate cap on consumer credit,” said Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). “Bring it on.” But, she added, “if he refuses to follow through on the campaign promises that would help working people, then he should be held accountable.” More top reads:
- Reconciliation reconnaissance: GOP lawmakers huddled yesterday to begin working on their big expected economic policy bill, Eleanor Mueller reports. While Republican leaders have been strategizing about a reconciliation deal since earlier this year, there are still several outstanding questions about what to include: “Some GOP priorities recently outlined by [House Majority Leader STEVE] SCALISE — like funding the border wall, overhauling energy project permitting, and boosting immigration enforcement — could be a stretch” under reconciliation rules. Much, as ever, will be in the hands of the Senate parliamentarian.
- Bathroom brouhaha: Though Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) continues to ramp up her anti-transgender rhetoric online, the South Carolina lawmaker described herself as “pro-transgender rights” in a 2023 interview with CBS News, CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski scoops: “Mace made the comments in the context of saying she opposed gender-affirming care for minors. ‘They may decide as an adult, ‘Hey, instead of being Johnny, I want to be Jill’ — that’s OK,’ she said. ‘But let them figure that out and make that decision when they can consent.’”
ALL POLITICS CAJUN SEASONING — Democratic strategist JAMES CARVILLE told The New Republic’s Greg Sargent he’s assembling a group of pollsters to conduct an extensive survey on media consumption, noting it’s a major knowledge gap for the Democratic party: “[W]e have to start asking ourselves, where do these people get their information? What do they trust? What do they not trust? … I think there's no question that the Democratic Party is far behind on this particular thing,” Carville said. DEMOGRAPHIC DIVE — “The women voters Democrats lost — and gained — offer clues for the next era of American elections,” by The 19th’s Mel Leonor Barclay and Jennifer Gerson MARK YOUR CALENDARS — “DNC announces candidate forums, sets chair election for Feb. 1,” by Elena Schneider AMERICA AND THE WORLD DEAL OR NO DEAL — Israel’s security cabinet is meeting today to vote on a possible cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah, WSJ’s Adam Chamseddine and Jared Malsin and Alex Ward report. This version of a deal includes a “60-day implementation period” allowing the Israeli military to withdraw and Lebanese forces to secure the border. “An international committee along with United Nations peacekeepers would monitor compliance.” While both Israeli and U.S. officials are hopeful this deal with pass, “National Security Council spokesman JOHN KIRBY cautioned reporters Monday, saying, ‘Nothing is done until it’s all done, and it’s not done right now.’” WHERE ISIS WENT — National Counterterrorism Center head BRETT HOLMGREN cautioned that the rise of Islamic State terror group in Africa “is potentially one of the greatest long-term threats to U.S. interests,” Robbie Gramer reports: “Holmgren and other Western security officials and analysts have drawn comparisons between how ISIS groups have amassed territory in the Sahel region of Africa with the group’s prominent rise in the Middle East around a decade ago.” UP IN THE AIR — “Unidentified drones spotted over bases used by U.S. Air Force in Britain,” by WaPo’s Kelsey Baker JUDICIARY SQUARE TAKING A BREATHER — “Supreme Court won’t hear challenge to graphic cigarette warning labels,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst
| | | | Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kyrsten Sinema is anticipating some Senate schadenfreude. Caitlyn Jenner thinks she could beat Kamala Harris in a governor race. Debbie Stabenow lost her mom. Donald Trump is facing a lawsuit over his Les Paul-style guitars. TRANSITIONS — Mohamed Fatah is now EVP for government affairs and global business development at Stryk Global Diplomacy. He is a former senior international affairs officer at the Pentagon advising the Office of the Secretary of Defense and J2 at the Joint Chiefs of Staff. … Alex Bolton will be SVP for government affairs at Atlas Crossing. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jennifer DiSiena, VP at Story Partners and Michael Aurrichio, regional sales manager at ExtraHop, recently welcomed Colin Michael Aurrichio. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) … Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) … Chris Hughes of the Economic Security Project … Marcia Coyle … U.S. Ambassador to Italy and San Marino Jack Markell … Lisa Vedernikova Khanna of Instacart … Webber Steinhoff of Prospect Strategic Communications … CBS’ Jenna Gibson … Sasha Borowsky of the Aspen Institute … Tyler Threadgill … Katie Gommel of RebuttalPR … Vicente Garcia … CNN’s Alicia Jennings … Valerie Holford … Dannia Hakki of MoKi Media … Ray Glendening of Firehouse Strategies … USAID's Brittany Heyer … Gabe Brotman … former CIA Director Porter Goss … Stuart Jolly … Dennis Ross … former Rep. Steve Buyer (R-Ind.) … Ethan Bronner … Marianna Pecora of Voters of Tomorrow … Dana Best-Mizsak … Husch Blackwell Strategies’ Cooper Ehrendreich… Liz Lawrence Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts: limits for teens, peace of mind for parents
Parents want their teens to grow and thrive - and to make sure they’re staying safe.
That’s why Instagram is launching Teen Accounts, with automatic protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Putting built-in limits in place for teens, so parents can have more peace of mind.
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