| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A month ago, the Biden administration sent a strongly worded letter to Israel warning it would consider restricting military aid in 30 days unless Israel improved the humanitarian situation in Gaza. That deadline is Wednesday. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Joe Gould, Jack Detsch and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Biden administration has in recent weeks stepped up criticism of Israel for not doing enough to expand humanitarian aid access in Gaza. But with the election of DONALD TRUMP, does criticism or pressure from the lame-duck Biden administration really matter? That’s the big question that U.S. officials and Middle East analysts are asking as the Biden administration attempts to defuse the Middle East crisis during its final weeks in office. A month ago, the Biden administration sent a strongly worded letter to Israel warning it would consider restricting military aid in 30 days unless Israel improved the humanitarian situation in Gaza. That deadline is Wednesday. If the deadline hits and the Biden administration says Israel hasn’t done enough, it could restrict weapons shipments to Israel — drawing outcry from Trump and likely members of his avowedly pro-Israel incoming administration that signal any pressure will be short-lived. Or President JOE BIDEN could declare Israel has made some progress and not halt weapons shipments — drawing outcry from aid organizations and some Democratic lawmakers. If the U.S. doesn’t take action, “preventable suffering and deaths will escalate and erode the United States' moral and legal credibility,” said KATY CROSBY of the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps. Dozens of human rights and progressive groups called on Biden to honor the deadline and end arms sales to Israel in a new letter first obtained by NatSec Daily. Whatever the Biden administration decides will be a litmus test for whether Biden’s foreign policy in the lame-duck period before Trump takes office has any teeth, and a sign of whether it can make any progress toward a Gaza cease-fire, hostage talks or defusing the crisis in Lebanon. “They're in a bind now,” said AARON DAVID MILLER , a former longtime U.S. Middle East peace negotiator for both Republican and Democratic administrations. He argues that any actions on Israel by Biden’s team now may be too little, too late. “What is the point of imposing a cost or consequence by delaying a shipment of weapons to Israel,” Miller said. “Is it going to fundamentally change Israel's calculations?” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is scheduled to meet Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs RON DERMER on Monday evening. The State Department last week has already signaled that Israel wasn’t doing enough. “As of today, the situation has not significantly turned around,” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters on Nov. 7. “We have seen an increase in some measurements. But if you look at the stipulated recommendations in the letter — those have not been met.” But it’s been tight-lipped since then. “This week, we will make our judgments about what kind of progress they have made,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CBS News on Sunday when asked about the looming deadline. “I'm not going to get ahead of that.” The White House National Security Council and State Department did not respond to requests for comment. Beyond Washington, top European leaders are ramping up criticisms of Israel’s operations in Gaza. The European Union’s outgoing foreign policy chief, JOSEP BORRELL, said on X : “The words ‘ethnic cleansing’ are increasingly used to describe what is going on in North Gaza. The daily reality of forced displacements violates international law.”
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Join Lockheed Martin and Face the Fight in breaking the stigma surrounding veteran suicide. By raising awareness and fostering conversations around support and hope, our heroes never have to face the fight alone. Learn more. | | | | | SMOTRICH’S WEST BANK PUSH: Israeli Finance Minister BEZALEL SMOTRICH is hungry for Israel to annex territory in the West Bank, in the latest sign that elements of the Israeli far-right feel emboldened in the wake of Trump’s election. Reuters reported today that Smotrich, who belongs to a pro-settler party, is initiating “professional and comprehensive staff work to prepare the necessary infrastructure" for extending sovereignty over the West Bank. Smotrich also wants to lobby the incoming Trump administration to get their backing for the decision. DEMOCRATS’ GAZA BLAME GAME: There’s a lot of finger-pointing going around in Democratic circles over how the party handled the war in the Gaza Strip, but it’s unclear whether that’ll translate into new policy. Our own LIZ CRAMPTON reports from Dearborn, Michigan that Trump made inroads with Arab American voters who wanted to punish the Biden administration over its support for Israel and were turned off by the Harris campaign’s lack of outreach to their communities. And recriminations are running strong within the administration. “I hope every vote Harris lost over Gaza in Michigan and Pennsylvania haunts JAKE SULLIVAN and BRETT McGURK for the rest of their days,” a Biden administration political appointee told our own NAHAL TOOSI. But former officials don’t expect it to translate into a reckoning over policy toward Israel any time soon. ANDREW MILLER, who served as deputy assistant secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian affairs during the Biden administration, argues that policy change will require a leader to emerge that pushes the party “in one direction or another.” Beyond that, he said both sides will have plenty of ammunition to keep debating the issue while in political exile. “There isn't going to be a natural consensus emerging on it overall,” he said. BEIJING’S MIFFED, MARITIME EDITION: Beijing is fighting back against the Philippines’ passage of two laws last week that reaffirmed Philippine sovereignty over areas of the South China Sea prey to aggressive China Coast Guard incursions, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. China released coordinates on Sunday for what it calls “the baselines of the territorial sea” around the disputed Scarborough Shoal (what Beijing calls Huangyan island). Beijing seized the island in 2012 and stationed Coast Guard and fishing vessels around it to fend off Philippine efforts to retake it. The release of the coordinates followed State Department spokesperson Miller calling those laws “a routine matter” that “further clarifies Philippine maritime law” in a statement Friday. That demarcation “is a natural step by the Chinese government” to push back against Manila’s violations of Beijing’s “territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea,” the Foreign Ministry said Sunday. The demarcation is China’s latest act of defiance against an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruling against Beijing’s territorial claims in 2016. IT’S MONDAY AND VETERANS DAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. We thank our readers who have served in the military for their sacrifice on this Veterans’ Day. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | STEFANIK GETS GOP LOVE: There’s lots of praise rolling in for Trump’s decision to appoint House Republican Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK of New York as his ambassador to the United Nations. As Eric and our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, JOE GOULD and MERIDITH McGRAW reported this morning, Stefanik will be trading in her northern New York district for Turtle Bay, in a move that will thrust a staunch ally of Israel into center-stage at the international body. The move garnered praise from across the Republican Party. House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said in a statement that “Stefanik is a fighter who will promote President Trump’s America First priorities and counter the malign influence of our adversaries at the U.N.” Meanwhile, House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) said he has “seen firsthand how she is an incredible leader on defense and national security issues with a deep understanding of U.S. foreign policy.” MORGAN ORTAGUS , another contender for the role, was not asked about Stefanik when she appeared on Fox News earlier today, but said that the second Trump administration had its eyes on peace in Ukraine by Feb. 24, 2025, the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, if not during the transition. “You should want that to be resolved — going three years by the time President Trump is inaugurated,” Ortagus said. “It’s bad for everybody. It’s bad for the Ukrainians and it’s bad for NATO, and it’s bad for us, ultimately.”
| | CYBERCRIME CONVENTION COMMITMENT: The Biden administration has decided to commit to a controversial U.N. cybercrime convention, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports. The decision is the culmination of months of internal deliberations over whether to join a new U.N. treaty that human rights groups and other officials have argued could be misused by countries like Russia, China and Iran to justify surveillance of their citizens and infringing on digital rights. The decision was undertaken in advance of the U.N.’s Third Committee adopting the treaty on Monday afternoon, a key step before the treaty can get a General Assembly vote. A senior administration official said Sunday night that the U.S. “decided to remain with consensus” and support the treaty moving forward.
| | RENEWED PUSH ON IRAN: Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) are touting their forthcoming bill to crack down on foreign adversaries directing violence on American soil in the wake of recent indictments exposing Iranian-directed assassination plots within the U.S., our own JOE GOULD writes in. “The threat of Iran’s regime has clearly reached our shores, and criminal penalties need to be enhanced in response," they said in a statement. Their bill proposes mandatory minimum sentences of 10 years for offenses such as murder-for-hire, assaulting U.S. officials, kidnapping and stalking when orchestrated by foreign governments. The idea is to deter foreign-directed violence by ensuring that perpetrators face substantial prison terms. The bipartisan bill has a strong likelihood of becoming law as Congress wraps up its work over the next month. Federal charges last week detailed alleged Iranian plots targeting Trump and other prominent figures, reportedly part of a broader strategy by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to retaliate for the 2020 U.S. drone strike on General QASEM SOLEIMANI.
| | | U.S.-CHINA COP CROSS-TALK: Biden’s senior adviser for international climate policy is getting in some last swipes at Beijing over its climate policy, our own KARL MATHIESEN and Phelim report. JOHN PODESTA told reporters today that China’s status as the world’s largest carbon emitter — constituting 30 percent of the world’s annual total — requires Beijing to adopt a “more ambitious” climate agenda. He urged Beijing to produce a national climate action plan for reduction of all greenhouse gasses in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. “They're the largest emitter in the world, they have an obligation,” Podesta said at the COP29 U.N. climate talks in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile China is worried about the upheaval Trump will bring to the fight against climate change, Beijing’s top climate envoy LIU ZHENMIN said today. “Everybody’s concerned about next steps … whether after the U.S. election, U.S. climate policy will or won’t change,” Liu told reporters on the sidelines at COP. Trump has promised to yet again withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change, which almost 200 countries signed in 2015. He has also pledged to further ramp up American oil and gas production.
| | | | — Haiti’s provisional government dismissed Prime Minister GARRY CONILLE on Sunday. The move is set to add to the political instability in the embattled Caribbean country as the island faces off against armed gangs.
| | | | — STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The Guardian: The Cheney-loving Democratic party needs a reckoning about war — AHMED NAJI, The New York Times: To understand Egypt, meet my friend, a political prisoner
| | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: America's foreign policy future: A post-election analysis — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Covering conflict with CNN’s CLARISSA WARD — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m. Discussion on the latest developments in North Korea with Secretary General YONGHO TAE — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "Why Can't America Retrench?" — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 1:30 p.m.: The next administration's Middle East policy — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Moldova's European future — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Assessing the halfway point of Colombia's 2016 peace accord implementation — Center for a New American Security, 2 p.m.: Russia and China in Central Asia: Compete, cooperate, or de-conflict? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never listens to our deadlines for change on this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is organizing a letter in protest of Heidi.
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