Justin Trudeau calling

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mickey Djuric

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Trump 2.0 is on the horizon. What's the plan?

→ Ottawa quietly drops major TikTok news.

BRIAN JEAN pays a visit to the nation's capital.

DRIVING THE DAY

RORSCHACH TEST — DONALD TRUMP's resounding victory over KAMALA HARRIS means one of two things for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's political career. Probably.

→ Conventional wisdom says it's bad news — the latest example of a frustrated electorate punishing an incumbent government for a cost-of-living crisis that even the most positive economic indicators can't refute.

Or maybe it’s good. A couple of columnists were out early Wednesday to declare Trudeau the real winner in the aftermath of Trump’s stunning return to power. The Sun's WARREN KINSELLA, no fan of the PM, predicted a gradual improvement in polls. The Star's MARK MCQUEEN called the U.S. election result a "career-saving opportunity" for Trudeau.

Many will roundly mock the latter takes. But few whispers about the prime minister's leadership followed Liberals into their weekly caucus meeting on Wednesday.

For the moment, the Ottawa fishbowl is obsessed with a single question: How does Team Trudeau deal with Trump 2.0?

— Hints of a plan: Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND 's weekly press conference on economic policy was all Trump all the time. Freeland talked up people-to-people ties.

"We have really effective experience working together with a number of U.S. administrations and with this specific team, and have really built some enduring relationships, I would even say friendships," she said.

Later on: "We have been very, very conscientious, very systematic about maintaining our relationship, maintaining our lines of communication with the Trump team."

→ Case study: Freeland, who reportedly dined this year with former USTR ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, told reporters she spoke with her former trade friend/foe "a few times" on Election Day. They've recently found common cause confronting Chinese imports.

Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE said he was texting members of Trump's team, "and they’re responding."

— Phone call politics: It wasn't entirely clear for most of Wednesday if or when Trump and Trudeau, whose relationship status is best described as complicated, had renewed acquaintances.

Canada used to be first on the call list. It took until evening for word to spread that the pair had found each other via phone .

→ Point-form notes: When the PM congratulated Trump, a source familiar with the call said Trudeau mentioned his dad's comeback win after an election loss. Trump "loved that" and called PIERRE TRUDEAU “a fantastic guy.”

During the call, Trump had this to say about working with Trudeau when both were in office: "We had a great relationship and got a lot done together."

Also on their shared to-do list: Fentanyl.

— World leaders who also talked to the POTUS-elect: Indian PM NARENDRA MODI ("great conversation"), Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI ("willingness to work in close coordination"), British PM KEIR STARMER ("the relationship between the UK and US … will continue to thrive for many years to come"), Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY ("an excellent call"), Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBÁN ("big plans for the future!").

The exact order of phone calls isn't certain, but Canada wasn't top of the speed dial.

"In diplomacy, order is not random," a former diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, told Playbook. "There is protocol/tradition and there is prime importance. With the United States, Canada should be checking both boxes. Good that the call took place but we used to be higher on the list."

— Vancouver-bound: Trudeau is off to Vancouver at the end of the workweek for a pair of Friday evening fundraisers and the Liberal Party's British Columbia regional convention. A little distance from Ottawa as the PMO plans its next steps.

PAPER TRAIL

REPUBLICANS FOR TRUDEAU — A summertime Pollara surve y revealed a curious factoid about American voters.

Nearly half of GOP voters had a positive impression of Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU — better numbers than Trudeau draws from average Canadians.

What's driving the positive sentiment among Republicans? CHRIS SANDS of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute offers up a simple explanation: Most Americans kinda like Canada, and they don't know a whole lot about Trudeau.

Republicans might disagree with the PM's policy, Sands said, but most don't go that deep.

— Details, details: Still, we're fascinated by Pollara's unlikely findings. DAN ARNOLD, the pollster's chief strategy officer, sent us more survey data about those GOP voters.

→ 92 percent of pro-Trudeau Republicans had positive feelings about Canada — way higher than the broader Republican finding of 72 percent.

→ 13 percent liked JOE BIDEN.

→ 76 percent also liked French President EMMANUEL MACRON, compared to 47 percent of all Republicans.

→ 36 percent were seniors. Only 16 percent were in the 18-34 demo.

→ 63 percent were men. 74 percent were white. 41 percent had college degrees.

— Poll methodology: "An online survey amongst a randomly selected, reliable sample of N=1,500 adult Americans conducted from June 24–25, 2024. As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ± 2.5%, 19 times out of 20."

 

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Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Toronto, with plans to meet the chairperson of the African Union Commission, MOUSSA FAKI MAHAMAT, and will later attend a reception in his honor.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is also in Toronto. At 11 a.m., Freeland will meet with leaders from the steel industry in response to the U.S. election. At 2 p.m., she'll meet with the automotive and auto parts manufacturing sector.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a 1:30 p.m. party fundraiser at the Courtyard Burlington in Burlington, Ontario.

— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released his public itinerary.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Toronto and will attend a Broadbent Institute event at 7 p.m.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will travel to British Columbia to attend an evening event in her riding, Saanich-Gulf Islands. She will attend Parliament virtually.

DULY NOTED

— Conservative MP ARNOLD VIERSEN has been ignoring requests to speak at the House justice committee about his private member’s bill, C-270, which aims to protect minors and non-consenting adults from appearing in porn.

As sponsor of the bill, he’s invited back today — though it’s so far unclear if he’ll show up.

For your radar

NOTABLE NEWS DROP — The Liberal government is ordering TikTok to shut down its Canadian offices following a national security review, though Ottawa won’t block Canadians from using the app.

TikTok Canada said it will legally challenge the decision, which the company claims will result in hundreds of job losses in its Toronto and Vancouver offices.

— Timing is everything: The news dropped in the middle of U.S. Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ concession speech — and as journalists were nearing daily print and broadcast deadlines.

— Mum's the word: Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE was heavily quoted in the departmental press release, though he offered no hint of the decision when he scrummed with media in West Block for seven minutes on Wednesday morning.

— Rewind to Tuesday: Oyster Group co-founder AMANDA GALBRAITH told Playbook readers that the aftermath of the U.S. election would be a good time to bury big news.

— Quote check: “I would do it late enough that it made it tough for folks to get any other sources on the story, but not so late that it made it impossible to get the news out,” she said.

PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE

GOOD COP — BRIAN JEAN is playing bridge-builder this week.

Alberta's energy minister is no stranger to Ottawa. He served a decade-long stint as an MP. On the heels of a controversial draft of a federal plan to force oil and gas producers to cap emissions, Jean was making the rounds in old haunts.

He stopped by the POLITICO/Earnscliffe presidential election watch party on Tuesday evening. He swung by the ag sector's watch party at the National Arts Centre. He took in Wednesday’s question period from the gallery across from the government benches.

And he ran into old colleagues — the current intergovernmental affairs minister, for instance.

"I always talk to as many people as I can. That's why I have my cell phone number on my business card," Jean told Playbook in an exclusive interview. "I saw DOMINIC LEBLANC this morning. And a Quebec Liberal minister. I think it's really important to have good communication."

— That's a vibe shift: Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH was "pissed" when she learned the details of the draft emissions cap — which aims to reduce emissions from the oil and gas sector to 35 percent below 2019 levels by 2030.

The province claims the cap could cost thousands of jobs in multiple sectors, ultimately reducing Canada's standard of living.

On the way to the interview, Playbook noticed the van advertising Alberta's "scrap the cap message" rolling down Wellington Street — a multi-million dollar campaign aimed squarely at Ottawa.

— Futureproofing: Both of Jean's Liberal run-ins were "just by chance," he said. He didn't mention any planned sit-downs during his Ottawa tour, but did acknowledge conversations with a Conservative caucus curious about Alberta's energy policy.

"The truth is a lot of times we direct our attention to the people who are going to need us the most," he said. "But also people who are going to direct policy in the future."

Like, say, PIERRE POILIEVRE's ascendant Tories.

— Call me, maybe: Jean looks forward to hearing from LeBlanc or any other federal politician who wants to bend his ear. "The cell phone number hasn't changed," he said.

— Eternal optimist: Jean offered only tempered criticism of JUSTIN TRUDEAU's Liberals.

"In the past, they haven't been great at listening," he said. "I'm hoping that they move forward with attention to the details of what people are saying in different parts of the country." If they're curious, Jean offered to tour any willing federal pol around the oilsands.

MEDIA ROOM


— Top of POLITICO this morning: Trump dodged the law. Here’s who to blame.

— From our European colleagues: Scholz sets stage for German snap election as government collapses

— From CBC's J.P. TASKER: Via Rail's performance has gone from bad to worse — and it's costing the company millions

LOUISE BLAIS in Policy : "We don’t need a Minister of American Relations."

— In a piece on The Walrus, MARK KINGWELL reflects on “doxaholism,” which he defines as “a harmful craving for and attachment to loud, divisive, and identity-conferring opinion.”

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: What Trump means for Canada.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records.

Climate world absorbs a reality they’d hoped to avoid: Trump is back.

White House win will test Trump’s ability to gut Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

Will Trump’s win be a pyrrhic victory for the oil industry?

How the new Trump administration might approach cyber and tech policy.

 

A message from Google Canada:

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PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to former Liberal Cabmin MARYAM MONSEF (40) and to former Conservative-turned-Liberal MP EVE ADAMS (50).

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way .

Spotted: Former Sen. ROMÉO DALLAIRE, in the Senate gallery on Tuesday.

— QP scenes: A standing-room-only crowd, taking in the first question period following the U.S. election … Fundy Royal MP ROB MOORE, sitting awkwardly in his seat as Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU noted his local advocacy for a housing program that PIERRE POILIEVRE has promised to cancel … Poilievre, referencing the Aussie folk group All Our Exes Live in Texas as he railed against investment flowing south of the border … Poilievre, peacocking as he exited the chamber to a CPC ovation in the middle of a Trudeau response … Trudeau, loudly impersonating a trained seal in response.

Billionaire MARK CUBAN, following billionaire ELON MUSK on X — and then blocking the bot account that alerted its followers to that fact.

Noted: The family of MURRAY SINCLAIR has posted his official obituary.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

8:15 a.m. The House industry committee continues its study of credit card practices.

8:15 a.m. Carleton’s PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ and retired lieutenant-general ANDREW LESLIE will be at the House national defense committee as it explores the defense policy update.

8:30 a.m. The House agriculture committee will study issues and opportunities related to the railways.

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture committee will continue its study of wildfires.

9 a.m. SIMON DONNER of the Net-Zero Advisory Body will be first up at the Senate energy and environment committee.

9 a.m. The Senate fisheries and oceans committee will explore ocean carbon sequestration.

11 a.m. The House official languages committee will resume debate on a motion from Angelo Iacono.

11 a.m. Foreign affairs officials will be in front of the House government operations committee as it continues to interrogate the decision to buy new diplomatic digs in New York City.

11 a.m. The House human resources committee will explore workers in seasonal industries.

11 a.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will be up first at the House procedure committee to talk about his mandate.

11 a.m. The House citizenship committee will study reforms to the International Student Program.

11 a.m. The House committee on veteran affairs will study the experience of Indigenous veterans.

11 a.m. The House justice committee will study Bill C-270.

11:30 a.m. The Senate banking committee will study Canada’s monetary policy framework.

11:30 a.m. The Senate legal affairs committee picks up review of Bill C-40.

11:30 a.m. The House social affairs committee will study Bill C-252.

3:30 p.m. The House transport committee will study recreational boating on Canada’s waterways.

3:30 p.m. The House science and research committee continues its study of capstone research funding.

3:30 p.m. The House health committee continues its study of Bill C-368.

3:30 p.m. The House foreign affairs committee will hear from experts as it studies a two-state solution.

3:30 p.m. The House public safety committee will hear from the Ottawa Citizen’s DAVID PUGLIESE and BRENT JOLLY of the Canadian Association of Journalists.

TRIVIA

Wednesday’s answer: ELSIE WAYNE, JEAN CHAREST, JACQUES MARTIN and ROGER NEILSON all attended the wedding of CATHERINE CLARK and CHAD SCHELLA.

Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, ELLA D’SILVA, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, PATRICK ST-JACQUES and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Today’s question: On this date in 1885, "the last spike" was driven into the Canadian Pacific Railway in Craigellachie, British Columbia. What was it made of?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. 

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Advertise in our Playbook. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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