Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at how President-elect Donald Trump may upend U.S. policy toward Taiwan and examine Chinese state media's take on the presidential election. And we profile a book that argues that collateral damage of the Covid pandemic included "the collapse of U.S. soft power in China."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
Trump's win creates a crisis for Taiwan
Pool photo by Thomas Peter/Getty Images |
Beijing may reap a silver lining in President-elect Donald Trump's electoral victory — a United States less willing to spend money and military might to defend Taiwan.
While Trump is likely to enact hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, he seems much less inclined to punish China for its ongoing threats toward the self-governing island. Trump has argued that Taiwan stole the U.S. semiconductor industry and suggested the island should pay for U.S. protection. And he isn't alone in his party in deprioritizing Taiwan. The Republican National Committee's 2024 party platform doesn't mention Taiwan (the first time it's been absent since 1980).
Policy-flip fears. That means Trump could upend decades of bipartisan commitment to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. President Joe Biden bolstered that policy with pledges of direct U.S. military intervention to fend off any possible Chinese invasion attempt. He also aided Taiwan through billions of dollars in weapon sales and moves to deepen unofficial diplomatic ties with the island through a U.S-Taiwan trade pact. Harris had pledged to continue that support.
Enter the dealmaker. If Trump considers that Taiwan policy less sacrosanct, he could decide to take China's territorial claim to the island more seriously than previous U.S. presidents. "He would be willing to negotiate [Taiwan's] return to China if they gave him something that mattered to him personally," said Stephen Young, career U.S. diplomat and former director of the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taipei.
What to expect. Taipei should brace for the same kind of pressure to boost its spending on defense that Trump has demanded of NATO member countries.
"He's transactional," said former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "He will say … you have to invest more in defense." The island currently allocates 2.45 percent of its gross domestic product to defense spending.
Balancing act. A less robust defense of Taiwan could help ease the pain in Beijing from expected across the board tariffs of at least 60 percent on all Chinese imports. Trump has shown a desire to play both sides with China, having repeatedly described Chinese leader Xi Jinping as “brilliant."
Taipei's brave face. Taiwan's government is publicly upbeat about Trump's victory. "The longstanding #Taiwan–#US partnership, built on shared values & interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability," Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te said in a post on X Wednesday.
That optimism isn't universal. "If he does a favor, he will ask for something even bigger in return," said Jason Hsu, former legislator-at-large for Taiwan's opposition KMT party. "We had guidelines in dealing with a Harris presidency as a continuation of Biden, but with Trump we don't have a playbook."
Beijing tight-lipped. The Chinese government won't say how Trump's election might affect ties. Beijing will continue to engage "under the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday.
Concern on Capitol Hill. Any signal from the Trump administration of a softening in U.S. support for Taiwan will be a test of Trump's influence on Republicans on Capitol Hill. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have included two Taiwan-specific bills — the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act and the Taiwan Non-Discrimination Act — in a package of legislation they are seeking to pass as part of the National Defense Authorization Act.
Support for Taiwan has been a pillar of the House Select Committee on China's efforts to counter Beijing's perceived national security threats. Trump's criticisms of Taiwan "is exactly what the Chinese would want. They want our friends, partners and allies to feel like they couldn’t rely on us," said committee ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). Many GOP lawmakers say their support for Taiwan is rock-solid despite its absence from the party platform. A failure to deter potential Chinese aggression would be "a catastrophic mistake we cannot afford to repeat when it comes to Taiwan," said committee chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.).
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS PUSH CHINA BILL PACKAGE: House Speaker Johnson's "China week" of Beijing-targeted legislation in September was just a warm-up. Johnson and Senate majority leader Schumer are pushing to attach a raft of China-related bills and artificial intelligence measures to the NDAA that's expected to pass when lawmakers return for the lame-duck session.
More than 70 China and AI-related bills are now in the mix for a potential package to be grafted onto the NDAA according to a list viewed by POLITICO. Lawmakers are scrambling to finalize the Pentagon policy bill and ensure other priorities are enacted before a new Congress and president take office. POLITICO'S Connor O'Brien and Joe Gould have the story here (for U.S. Pros!).
— ENVOY FRETS HONG KONG'S 'POLITICAL PRISONERS': Hong Kong authorities need to improve their treatment of those the U.S. dubs "political prisoners" in order to improve strained ties with the United States, U.S. Consul General Gregory May told reporters Wednesday.
May called for the Hong Kong government to end its "constant emphasis on national security at the expense of freedom of speech" and said the plight of detainees including former media tycoon Jimmy Lai was of "great concern" to the Biden administration. The nonprofit pro-democracy advocacy organization Hong Kong Democracy Council estimates there are more than 1,900 political prisoners in the territory. May's comments follow Secretary of State Antony Blinken's criticism in March of a Hong Kong government campaign of "intensifying repression" targeting the territories "civil society, media and dissenting voices." Beijing dismissed those concerns.
Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said the prisoners May referenced were "anti-China rioters" whose actions "gravely undermined national security and Hong Kong's fundamental interests."
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— TRADE WARS ON MULTIPLE FRONTS: European policymakers spent months preparing for Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. Now Brussels and Beijing may find common ground in battling the looming trade disputes of the next Trump administration.
Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs on both EU and Chinese imports, creating a possible opportunity for joint defensive actions. Brussels faces a dilemma — dial back its existing protective duties on Chinese electric vehicles to focus squarely on potential new Trump tariffs, or fight a two-front trade war with both Beijing and Washington.
POLITICO has brainstormed the angles on how the U.S.-EU relationship — and its spillover on their relations with Beijing — might change under the next administration in this handy guide.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— CHINESE HACKERS' MASSIVE CELL DATA HAUL: Chinese hackers accessed sensitive cellular logs on a vast number of Americans after penetrating inside a swathe of U.S. telecommunications providers earlier this year, two people involved in the response to the hacks told POLITICO's John Sakellariadis.
The two people said a China-backed hacking group dubbed Salt Typhoon gained access to a vast trove of so-called Call Detail Records. Those contain information on who Americans talk to, how often, and when, as well as detailed location data afforded by 5G networking services. Read the exclusive from John.
— XINHUA: 'POLITICAL TURMOIL' DEFINED U.S. ELECTION: China's state news agency Xinhua weighed in on the U.S. presidential election even before Trump was declared the winner. And its take wasn't pretty. The election reflected "political turmoil" that "revealed the state of American democracy," Xinhua said in a report Tuesday. Xinhua pointed to weaknesses including a "debt-reliant federal government," reproductive rights "splitting American society" and an economy that has "scapegoated newcomers" as some of the fault lines exposed in the election.
If that sounds familiar it’s because it echoes the themes in the book "America Against America" written by the political theorist Wang Huning who serves as Xi Jinping's ideological "brains behind the throne." You can read China Watcher's take on Wang's book here.
HEADLINES
South China Morning Post: In China, fear of regime change has shaped US policy. Here's why
Foreign Affairs: Xi Jinping's axis of losers
RFA: Inside the CIA's (largely) secret role in the Tibetan resistance
China Media Project: The crimes and punishments of China's 'Internet auditors'
HEADS UP
— 'WONKY CHINA' POST-ELECTION HOT TAKES: Attention readers in the DMV — join China Watcher co-author Phelim Kine TONIGHT for an informal discussion with local China hands and policy peeps at a special post-election convening of the fun and knowledge-loving folks at Wonky China. Event details here.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
Palgrave Macmillan |
One Book, Three Questions
The Book: Covid-19 and U.S.-China Relations (a compilation of essays by U.S. and Chinese academic writers)
The Editor: Zheng Wang is director of Seton Hall University's Center for Peace and Conflict Studies
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
The Covid-19 pandemic acted as a war-like experience between the U.S. and China, causing extensive and lasting damage to their relationship, far beyond what most people realize. It extends beyond politics and economics — deeply affecting perceptions, psychology, and mutual impressions.
The mutual mistrust generated during this period has created formidable obstacles to future cooperation.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while editing this book?
The collapse of U.S. soft power in China during the pandemic. This was driven in part by Chinese propaganda and media, which extensively covered the U.S.’s struggles and mishandling of Covid-19, portraying its suffering in a negative light. And it was further exacerbated by the rhetoric and verbal attacks from U.S. politicians, such as labeling Covid-19 the “Chinese virus,” which was widely reported in China and used as "vivid material for patriotic education."
What — if anything — might dispel the deep distrust in the U.S. regarding China's perceived role — and lack of accountability — for the origins of Covid-19?
Politicization of the pandemic's origins in both China and the U.S. has made a credible, transparent and joint investigation into the origins of Covid-19 nearly impossible. Many in China believe the virus originated in the U.S., and a comprehensive investigation might scientifically disprove the various rumors and disinformation.
But given the entrenched mutual suspicions and political stakes in both countries, it appears unlikely that the deep distrust regarding each other's perceived role in the origins of Covid-19— whether addressed through comprehensive investigation or dialogue — can be dispelled in the foreseeable future.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Connor O'Brien, Joe Gould, Eric Bazail-Eimil, John Sakellariadis and digital producers Emma Cordover and Giulia Poloni. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email me at pkine@politico.com
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