| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Veronika Melkozerova and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | 
Ukraine may be comfortable with Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of State, but some vocal supporters of Ric Grenell are expressing outrage over the potential nomination. | Matt Slocum/AP | Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Ukraine’s strongest supporters are daring to hope: Kyiv might just be alright in the Trump era. The latest sighs of (still cautious) relief came after news that President-elect DONALD TRUMP selected Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser and will likely select Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) to be his secretary of state. Both lawmakers have hewed to the Trump-era America First foreign policy doctrine, but are still ardent hawks when it comes to the U.S. approach to adversaries like China, Iran and Russia — far from the isolationist wing of the Republican party that would seek to abandon Ukraine or NATO. Rubio and Waltz have questioned or voted against past U.S. aid packages for Ukraine — not for lack of support for Ukraine in its fight to defeat Russia but because the U.S. wasn’t spending a requisite amount on securing the U.S. southern border by comparison. Waltz has even suggested lifting U.S. restrictions on how Ukraine could use its long-range weapons to strike at Russia — something the Biden administration hasn’t done much to the frustration of war planners in Kyiv. “Kyiv is quite calm and quite comfortable with the national security officials announced so far,” said DANIEL VAJDICH, a Republican foreign policy expert and president of Yorktown Solutions, which advises Ukrainian state entities and engages with officials in Kyiv. “Those pushing a narrative of anxiety in Kyiv are doing this for their own purposes and are doing Ukraine a disservice in my view.” Ukrainian lawmakers and analysts agree that these appointments signal the incoming Trump administration is sympathetic to Ukraine’s cause, but say it will still be an uphill battle convincing the U.S. to shell out more military and economic aid. “For people who are concerned that Trump is going to sell Ukraine down the river, I think his main priority is going to try and find some kind of equitable peace,” said a former Trump administration official, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal transition matters. Trump’s latest cabinet picks have signaled they would back sharper crackdowns on Russia’s energy exports that bankroll its war machine and fund its deepening partnerships with other U.S. adversaries like Iran and China. Waltz has hammered the Biden administration for not doing enough to close loopholes in Russia’s oil and gas exports in recent interviews, which would align with the first Trump administration’s approach to tightening Russian energy sanctions to empower domestic U.S. energy exports. “I think they'll try to shut it down as much as they can,” JAMES CARAFANO, a foreign policy expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, said of the incoming Trump administration’s likely approach to Russia’s oil and gas sectors. Still, there’s a palpable sense of unease among senior European officials. Trump has vowed he could end the war in Ukraine in one day — without giving any details on how it would be done. If virtually everyone in NATO is skeptical of that claim, many also fear it could push Ukraine into a bad deal that empowers Russia. Influential conservative figures deeply skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine still have close access to the president-elect. His eldest son, DONALD TRUMP JR., taunted Ukraine on social media by sharing a clip referring to his father’s election as a time when Ukraine would be “losing your allowance.” Other figures in the Trump world are angry that Trump would tap Rubio for secretary of state over other MAGA acolytes like former U.S. Ambassador to Germany RICHARD GRENELL, who may be more skeptical of sending further aid to Ukraine. And Ukrainians and other NATO officials fear that any peace deal Trump could broker over Ukraine won’t end the war but only delay it to give Russia time to regroup for more fighting. “Many times in the past, we have seen partners ignoring Ukraine’s warnings. In the end, we have been proven right,” said HEORHII TYKHYI, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.
| | | | The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | ABOUT THAT DEADLINE: The U.S. government’s deadline for Israel to step up its humanitarian aid distribution is coming up fast, and the U.S. is officially acknowledging it’s talking to Israeli officials about it. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN met with Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs RON DERMER today, per a State Department release, where the two officials discussed “operational changes made by the Israeli Defense Forces and COGAT, as well as policy decisions taken by the Government of Israel to address the measures included in the letter.” The issue is also expected to be discussed in a meeting between President JOE BIDEN and Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG at the White House today. But an analysis from The Washington Post’s MIRIAM BERGER is calling into question how much Israel has addressed the three main targets in the October letter from Blinken and Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN : increasing humanitarian aid across the enclave, granting access for commercial trucks again and ending the isolation of northern Gaza. Specifically, Berger reports that humanitarian groups working on the ground are sharply disputing the Israeli government’s claims of progress. Scroll down to Broadsides for more on how outside groups are increasing pressure on the administration to take more action against Israel in the lame-duck period. BLINKEN’S BUSY WEEK: It may be the lame-duck period, but Blinken is still boasting a hefty travel schedule over the next seven days. The State Department said in a statement today that America’s chief diplomat is in Belgium today and Wednesday for meetings with NATO and EU counterparts to discuss continued Western support for Ukraine. The trip, AFP reports, is an emergency one as allies work to rally support for Kyiv before Trump takes office. After his visit to Brussels, the State Department says Blinken will head to Peru for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in Lima, where he’ll be joining Biden and U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI for meetings. And that’s not all — Blinken is staying in South America, hopping over to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit in Brazil. SUBIANTO IN WASHINGTON: Indonesian President PRABOWO SUBIANTO is in Washington today as the key ally in Southeast Asia courts increased U.S. investment and continued collaborations in the face of Chinese aggression. He’s scheduled to meet with Biden today at the White House. And Subianto is also making sure he has lines open to the incoming Trump administration, calling Trump shortly after arriving in Washington on Monday to congratulate him on his election victory. Per Reuters, in videos posted to social media, Subianto said "Wherever you are, I'm willing to fly to congratulate you personally, sir.” Trump replied: "We'll do that, anytime you want.” HAITI WOES CONTINUES: The Federal Aviation Administration is barring U.S. airlines from flying over Haitian airspace after two U.S. flights, including a Spirit Airlines flight to Port-au-Prince, were hit with gunfire from one of the country’s gangs earlier this week, injuring a flight attendant. The 30-day suspension from the FAA comes as Haiti’s gang crisis worsens despite the deployment of a Kenyan-led and U.S. and U.N.-backed multinational security support mission to help the country’s beleaguered police forces battle heavily armed gangs. But the country’s transitional government is mired in infighting. Haiti’s transitional government named ALIX DIDIER FILS-AIMÉ as the country’s prime minister, replacing GARRY CONILLE , who they fired by decree on Sunday. The gangs, meanwhile, launched more brazen attacks in October, striking in communities far from Port-au-Prince, where much of the early violence was concentrated. The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince and the State Department have also warned the gangs are looking to impede travel to Haiti. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | | | Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy. | | | | | | | WHO’S AFRAID OF MARCO RUBIO? Ukraine may be comfortable with Rubio as secretary of State, but some vocal supporters of Grenell are expressing outrage over the potential nomination. As our own NATALIE ALLISON and MERIDITH McGRAW report , Grenell’s active lobbying for the position of secretary of State and prickly personality had alienated some allies of Trump. But Rubio has been criticized by some Trump diehards as too hawkish and some allies, like ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., have publicly expressed their opposition to Rubio. Grenell, meanwhile, is described as a loyalist who will push an “America First” foreign policy. Grenell’s backers also insist no decision has been made (and to be fair, Trump hasn’t officially announced that Rubio received the nomination). “We are still waiting on the decision from President Trump and the campaign leadership on what their official decision is,” said one Grenell ally on Tuesday morning, granted anonymity to speak freely about the matter. “What we have been hearing is that no decision has been made.”
| | UKRAINE’S NEW JOINT VENTURES: Ukraine is setting up three new joint ventures with European arms manufacturers to boost its defense base as Russia’s invasion drags into its third year. As Reuters' OLENA HARMASH reports, the three new ventures are in the final stages and will join five existing collaborations with weapon producers, including German and Lithuanian companies. Economy Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister YULIA SVYRYDENKO did not add further details in her announcement about the next steps needed to complete the venture. But Svyrydenko’s announcement comes as Kyiv has sought to lure foreign funds and technology companies to invest in its domestic weapon production and boost ammunition and equipment supplies to the battlefield. And European companies are taking the offer — German weapons giant Rheinmetall opened its first factory in Ukraine to maintain combat vehicles and build infantry fighting vehicles by the year's end. And other firms such as Britain-based BAE Systems and Franco-German KDNS, have joined forces with Ukrainian producers and set up local offices.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Muti-Domain, Layered Defense From Surface to Space.
Lockheed Martin is delivering multi-domain, layered defense from surface to space so the U.S. and allies can stay ahead of accelerating threats. Our proven, integrated air and missile defense systems connect 360-degree sensors, command and control networks, interceptors, and directed energy systems to defend with speed and precision when seconds count. Learn more. | | | | | | LAME DUCK AGENDA: Congress is back after a whole month away, and as our friends at Morning Defense wrote this morning (for Pros!), there’s a lot on its to-do list. One of the main tasks is passing a defense spending bill. The House and Senate Armed Services Committees are working to reconcile their versions of the NDAA this week and send it to Biden’s desk before the end of the year. While committee aides spent the recess smoothing over the differences in the bills, there are still key differences between the chambers’ drafts, including a higher budget top line in the Senate version and House provisions that would roll back the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy and diversity and equity efforts. Meanwhile, there’s a spate of China and AI-related bills that could make their way into the NDAA. More than 70 China and artificial intelligence bills are pending, including legislation that cracks down on Chinese biotech firms and drone makers and heightens scrutiny of U.S. outbound investment. One point of uncertainty — will the U.S. give Ukraine one last supplemental spending package before the end of the Biden administration? The White House hasn’t made a request yet, but the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, ROGER WICKER of Mississippi, has been pushing the White House to speed up weapons transfers, ease restrictions on strikes within Russian territory and allow U.S. defense contractors to operate in Ukraine. That might keep hopes alive for another boost to Kyiv.
| | RESIGNEES’ OTHER CALLS: A group of former Biden administration officials who resigned over the war in Gaza are joining public calls for the White House to take more decisive action in response to Israel. In a video message, former administration officials, including JOSH PAUL, HALA RHARRIT and ANNELLE SHELINE urge the Biden administration to take action to enforce the deadline and stop what they describe as an “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians in Gaza. “You are still the president. It's not too late for you to do the right thing,” the former officials said. “For the Palestinian people, for the hostages, for humanitarian aid workers, for Muslim Americans, for Jewish Americans, for Arab Americans, for your legacy, for America.” It’s the latest push as advocacy groups step up their efforts to pressure the Biden administration to take more decisive action as a deadline looms for Israel to increase humanitarian aid and reduce the enclave’s isolation.
| | | |   | | | | | — Trump will appoint former Arkansas Gov. MIKE HUCKABEE to be the next U.S. ambassador to Israel, Eric and our own MIA McCARTHY report. — BRIAN VOLSKY has been promoted to policy director for Foreign Policy for America, where he will lead the organization’s advocacy efforts for the 119th Congress.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: With Trump, Netanyahu’s got his work cut out for him — LUKE COFFEY, Foreign Policy: Why Ukraine is ready to gamble on Trump — ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: Putin isn’t fighting for land in Ukraine
| | | | — Atlantic Council, 9:45 a.m.: Avoiding entanglement: G20 responses in a Taiwan crisis — Wilson Center's Africa Program, 10 a.m.: Trendlines and transformations in African democratic governance: Lessons for 21st century U.S.-Africa relations — Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Post-election assessment: U.S. election results and the future of U.S. foreign policy and the Gaza war — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Addressing threats to digital rights in Hong Kong — Defense One, 12 p.m.: The state of defense business — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Competing with China on critical minerals — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 2:30 p.m.: Countering China's military buildup — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 5 p.m.: Engaging America: Ambassadorial perspectives on public diplomacy Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who has never let us breathe sighs of relief. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always reassures us that he’ll have our backs.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: The Best Defense Has Layers.
Lockheed Martin Integrated Air and Missile Defense: The best defense has layers. Our systems provide multi-tier defenses that work in concert to defeat incoming threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
