The knives are out over Treasury

Presented by Novo Nordisk: The preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump's presidential transition.
Nov 18, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO'S West Wing Playbook: Transition of Power

By Gavin Bade, Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan, Megan Messerly and Ben Johansen

Presented by Novo Nordisk

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump’s transition. POLITICO Pro subscribers receive a version of this newsletter first.

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SCOTT BESSENT. KEVIN WARSH. HOWARD LUTNICK. MARC ROWAN. All the supposed frontrunners for Treasury secretary have something in common — they’re Wall Street finance guys.

That’s got the populist right freaking out.

Protectionists in and out of President-elect DONALD TRUMP’s inner circle are terrified that none of the Treasury frontrunners will deliver on Trump’s most consistent — and potentially disruptive — economic campaign promise: across-the-board tariffs not seen in nearly a century, according to a person with direct knowledge of internal conversations, as well as dozens of public statements from populists in the past week.

They’re pushing their own candidate: Trump’s former trade chief ROBERT LIGHTHIZER. And though he’s widely viewed as a long shot — if not out of contention for Treasury entirely — protectionists are going public with their campaign to get him named to the most powerful economic role in the Cabinet.

The campaign — and continuing uncertainty about such an essential Cabinet job — points to simmering discontent in Trump’s world about the ultimate direction of economic policy: whether to deliver on high, universal tariffs, or shy away for fear that the duties will spook the stock market. It’s an unwanted redux of the same issue that plagued Trump’s first Treasury secretary, STEVEN MNUCHIN, who was always skeptical of Trump’s tariffs, even in their more meager, first-term form.

In the past few days, populist figures in Trump’s orbit, like MICHAEL STUMO, the head of the protectionist nonprofit Coalition for a Prosperous America, have made explicit pleas for Trump to pick Lighthizer as Treasury secretary — and have trashed the finance frontrunners like Bessent.

“Brash Wall Street/Finance guys are doing the hard sell for themselves. But the obvious choice as a knife fighter for Trump’s correct version [of] American economic rebirth is Lighthizer, who apparently is not selling himself,” Stumo said in a 14-post thread boosting the former trade chief.

Others went after Warsh, whose name has risen in recent days. SKANDA AMARNATH , director of the think tank Employ America, noted that the former Federal Reserve governor wrote in 2010 that the “creep of trade protectionism is anathema to pro-growth policies” — a take that itself is anathema to populists in Trump world today.

Other prominent figures like LAURA INGRAHAM have chimed in to say that the ultimate test for the Treasury secretary would be whether they agree with Trump on tariffs — a not-so-subtle dig at Bessent, who had downplayed tariff plans in multiple media appearances before the election, only to try to change his tune last week. The tariff discourse has even featured some of Lighthizer’s allies on the left, like his longtime friend LORI WALLACH, head of the left-leaning Rethink Trade group, who trashed Bessent and Lutnick as free traders. 

And New Right luminary SOHRAB AHMARI penned a full column in Compact Magazine — itself a fount of populist economic thought — about why Lighthizer is the best choice for Treasury.

It’s not a spontaneous outpouring of goodwill for Lighthizer. The Bob-posting is coming at the direction of populist figures who are in “very, very high positions” among Trump’s inner circle, said one person with knowledge of the communications who was granted anonymity to talk about them.

It’s clear that some of the Wall Street-affiliated candidates are trying to quell discontent about their tariff positions. Bessent last week penned an entire Fox op-ed about tariffs after West Wing Playbook noted mounting protectionist opposition to his bid for Treasury. And Lutnick has also fallen over himself to boost tariffs in cable news appearances — to the point of misstating some simple facts about global tariff rates, like what duties U.S. automakers face in other countries.

But those comments ring hollow to the hard-core protectionists. Even in his pro-tariff op-ed, Bessent pushes for tariffs “used strategically.” To protectionists, that’s Washington code for opposition to the universal tariffs Trump has pledged.

Still, even if Trump shies away from the current financier frontrunners for Treasury, he is unlikely to pick Lighthizer – a figure so well-known as a protectionist true believer and a Wall Street antagonist.

That could open a lane for a compromise pick — someone who could calm Wall Street but who is still seen as MAGA to his core. Someone, perhaps, like Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) who has long been a dark-horse candidate for the Treasury job and counts allies from Wall Street to Mar-a-Lago and even to Tokyo, where he served as Trump’s ambassador to Japan in the first term. Last month, both finance figures and MAGA die-hards like STEPHEN MILLER lauded Hagerty as a potential Cabinet pick, with Miller saying he is “MAGA as MAGA can get.”

The Tennessee senator told West Wing Playbook last week that he’s “not participating” in any speculation about a Cabinet post. But he did point out that he’s in a good place to advocate for tariffs and sell them to skeptical Republicans in Congress, given his role last time around.

“Certainly I can articulate the case very well because I served in the Trump administration when he did impose tariffs,” Hagerty said. “I’m acutely aware that we have an abundance of non-reciprocal trade relationships across the world. I have no doubt that we can come to a point as a conference that we can support President Trump’s efforts.”

MESSAGE US — Are you STEVEN MNUCHIN ? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.

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POTUS PUZZLER

How did Trump's first-term Cabinet turnover compare to his predecessors?

(Answer at bottom.)

Pro Exclusive

How Lee Zeldin went from Trump acolyte to EPA nominee, via our ALEX GUILLÉN, JOSH SIEGEL and RY RIVARD

Throwback: Trump 2.0 is boosting some old economic ideas, via our VICTORIA GUIDA, BENJAMIN GUGGENHEIM and KATY O’DONNELL

Head of HHS’ climate office hopes its work can survive Trump, via our ZACK COLMAN

Pipe dream? RFK Jr.’s fluoride push could take years, via our MIRANDA WILLSON

The reporting in this section is exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2024 transition and beyond, visit politicopro.com .

Heads up, we're all transition all the time over on our live blog: Inside Congress Live: Transition of Power. Bookmark politico.com/transition to keep up with us.`

 

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THE BUREAUCRATS

SINCE WE LAST TALKED: Trump gave us a relatively quiet weekend, but he did make three key personnel announcements.

Late Friday, he selected campaign press aide KAROLINE LEAVITT as his White House press secretary, the first Gen Zer and youngest person to helm the lectern in history.

On Saturday, Trump named oil industry CEO CHRIS WRIGHT to lead the Energy Department. If confirmed, Wright is likely to be one of the loudest voices in the administration against measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, as our Energy team reported.

And on Sunday, Trump tapped BRENDAN CARR as the chair of the Federal Communications Commission. Carr, currently the senior Republican among the FCC’s five commissioners, has laid out an aggressive agenda for the commission in Project 2025.

SUCCEEDING PETE: The Trump transition team is continuing to churn through potential picks to lead the Transportation Department, with the current crop of names including a former reality TV star, a former executive at Uber (no, not you, TONY WEST ) and a former Republican lawmaker from California, our CHRIS MARQUETTE, ORIANA PAWLYK and RACHAEL BADE report. Here are the contenders:

  • Former House lawmaker and Fox News contributor (and star of MTV’s “The Real World”) SEAN DUFFY
  • Former Uber executive EMIL MICHAEL
  • Former Rep. JEFF DENHAM (R-Calif.), who spearheaded efforts to ensure California’s troubled high speed rail project did not get federal money

BIG NEWS FOR TRUMP’S TAX CUT PLAN: Trump is expected to name a close JD VANCE ally as his congressional liaison, Bloomberg’s NANCY COOK and SKYLAR WOODHOUSE report. JAMES BRAID will serve as the White House director of legislative affairs — a role that will be central to tax cut talks next year — after having previously worked in Vance’s Senate office as deputy chief of staff. Braid also worked for the Office of Management and Budget during Trump’s first term.

WHAT IS THE TEA?? THE GIRLS ARE FIGHTING! As ELON MUSK quickly becomes one of the more influential members of Trump’s inner circle, tensions have arisen between the tech billionaire and a longtime Trump adviser over Cabinet appointments, Axios’ SOPHIA CAI reports.

Musk has questioned whether BORIS EPSHTEYN has had too much influence in Trump's selections, especially his top Justice Department picks and the White House counsel. Epshteyn, meanwhile, has bristled at Musk’s suggestion that his favored candidates are not qualified, Cai writes.

Their rocky relationship came to a head last week during a heated discussion at a dinner table in front of other guests at Mar-a-Lago.

BEST TYPE OF PERSONNEL MOVES: Our very own DANIEL LIPPMAN — who has tirelessly carried this section in the past with all of your swanky job announcements — is taking on a new role: Father. He and his wife, artist SOPHIA NARRETT, recently welcomed a baby girl to the world. Join us in congratulating Daniel and Sophia! Or else.

THE CULEA EFFECT: We feel inclined to note the Cleveland Cavaliers have yet to lose since former White House travel office director ADRIAN CULEA joined KENNY ATKINSON’s staff. West Wing Playbook readers know there are no accidents. That streak most certainly will end tomorrow night.

 

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Agenda Setting

HITTING THE GROUND RUNNING: In his first 100 days, Trump is expected to begin the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of people, our BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and MYAH WARD report.

He is likely to undo a policy that significantly constrained deportations for people who weren’t deemed threats to public safety or national security. He’s expected to end parole for people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. And on Monday — at 4:03 a.m. Eastern — Trump confirmed he’s prepared to declare a national emergency and use military resources to accomplish his pledge.

But deporting that many people could face logistical hurdles. The largest number of yearly removals came in 2013 when the BARACK OBAMA administration removed more than 430,000 people from the country.

Trump’s advisers have said they would first focus on people with criminal convictions and final removal orders. Still, finding, detaining and removing them would be resource-intensive, with detention capacity alone posing a costly and immediate challenge.

ANYTHING FOR THOSE TAX CUTS ... Trump’s economic advisers and congressional Republicans have begun preliminary conversations about making significant changes to Medicaid, food stamps and other federal safety net programs to offset the cost of extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, WaPo’s JACOB BOGAGE, JEFF STEIN and DAN DIAMOND report. Among the options being discussed are new work requirements and spending caps for the programs.

But some Republicans are concerned about the political backlash these cuts could have: Safety net programs currently provide support for at least 70 million low-income Americans.

HEALTH GROUPS GO AFTER RFK JR. NOM: Democratic-aligned health care advocacy groups are putting together a strategy to fight RFK Jr.’s nomination to be HHS secretary.

During an organizing call on Monday, more than 200 people from several dozen of those groups, along with other advocacy organizations, discussed strategies to oppose Kennedy’s nomination, our MEGAN MESSERLY reports . Those strategies included which Republican senators to target and the most effective way to talk to them, according to BRAD WOODHOUSE, executive director of Protect Our Care. The group launched a new “Stop RFK War Room” effort focused on persuading not only GOP moderates like Sens. SUSAN COLLINS of Maine and LISA MURKOWSKI of Alaska, but others like Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL of Kentucky, who survived polio, or Sen. THOM TILLIS of North Carolina, who is up for reelection in 2026.

What We're Reading

Voters just didn’t care”: The abortion-rights movement grapples with Trump’s return (POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein)

We’re Just Going to Have to Deal With Him” (The Atlantic’s McKay Coppins)

This Lawyer Has Some Advice for Trump’s Would-Be Targets: Take A Vacation (POLITICO’s Ian Ward)

Some NFL players celebrate big plays by doing the Trump dance (WaPo’s Matt Bonesteel)

 

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POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

To the surprise of no one, Trump’s first-term Cabinet saw massive turnover compared to that of his predecessors, with a grand total of 14 Cabinet secretary resignations.

Coming in second place was GEORGE H.W. BUSH, who had eight Cabinet members resign. In their first terms, Obama saw three Cabinet resignations, GEORGE W. BUSH saw two, BILL CLINTON saw four and RONALD REAGAN saw six.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Jennifer Haberkorn and Rishika Dugyala.

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
 

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