The Rick Scott backlash builds

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Nov 11, 2024 View in browser
 
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DRIVING THE DAY

LATEST RACE CALLS — Rep. YADIRA CARAVEO (D-Colo.) conceded to Republican GABE EVANS. Rep. DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.) wins reelection.

SAME AS IT EVER WAS — If it didn’t sink in on Election Night, or on the five days following, maybe what happened last night will do the trick: DONALD TRUMP announced a major White House personnel decision by tweet (er, Truth) at 11:23 p.m.

Former acting ICE Director TOM HOMAN, he announced, will return to government as “border czar” in charge of “but not limited to, the Southern Border, the Northern Border, all Maritime, and Aviation Security,” as well as “all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.” His re-ascendance puts a longtime proponent and enforcer of immigration crackdowns in place to greatly expand them in the second Trump administration. More from Josh Gerstein

The spin room at the Pennsylvania Convention Center.

We have a news flash for Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) overzealous allies: Congratulations, your campaign appears to be backfiring, badly. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

MAGA’S SENATE MISCUE — Just days after celebrating Trump’s thundering presidential victory, top MAGA luminaries this weekend set their sights on swinging another election: winning the top Senate leadership post for RICK SCOTT.

ELON MUSK, TUCKER CARLSON, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., VIVEK RAMASWAMY, CHARLIE KIRK. One by one, each declared that Trump’s election romp necessitates a complete overhaul atop the Senate GOP, fingering the Floridian as the perfect man for the job — spurning JOHN CORNYN and JOHN THUNE , the more-establishment types considered the front-runners in the race

“Only Rick Scott understands the urgency of the moment,” tweeted CPAC honcho MATT SCHLAPP, capturing the tenor of the online campaign.

This morning, we have a news flash for Scott’s overzealous allies: Congratulations, your campaign appears to be backfiring, badly.

Things took a turn around 7 p.m. yesterday, when MAGA YouTube star BENNY JOHNSON posted a purported whip count to his 3-million-follower X account. You can decide for yourself just how credible a list that counted Thune as voting for Cornyn might be, but it had the intended effect: The rather sleepy Senate leadership race quickly went from zero to Mach 10 among the online right.

MAGA posters began targeting the GOP senators listed as backing Cornyn or Thune, with some (including Trump social media guru DAN SCAVINO) sharing old clips of the pair criticizing Trump, while others openly threatened primaries and called senators “traitors.”

If your Senator has not vocally supported Rick Scott, they’re likely voting Thune/Cornyn,” conservative activist ROBBY STARBUCK wrote in a widely shared X post. “This will become a major issue down the line if one of them wins. Grassroots won’t forget this.”

There’s just one problem: There’s probably no group of Republicans more insulated from an outside pressure campaign than the 53 senators and senators-elect who will be voting Wednesday on MITCH McCONNELL’s replacement.

Most of them don’t have to run until 2028 or later. Some won’t run again at all. And, crucially, the vote is by secret ballot , meaning there’s no public accountability for how they vote.

Yes, a small handful of GOP senators went public in support of Scott over the weekend. (It was not unnoticed that two of the more surprising endorsers — Sens. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) — are in line for potential Cabinet posts.)

But the bulk of the Republican rank-and-file is not pleased. At all. We spoke with one senator who was aghast at the effort, as well as a GOP aide who said the campaign is “pissing off senators whose votes Rick needs” to win.

“Senators do not take kindly to having an army of social media trolls attack them,” the aide texted us last night.

We’ve seen this movie before: A similar campaign sought to browbeat House members into backing hard-right Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) for speaker following KEVIN McCARTHY’s ouster last year. It ended up only emboldening a cadre of moderates to block Jordan, paving the way for MIKE JOHNSON’s dark-horse win (and that was a public ballot).

Expect to see something similar play out now. It might be one thing if Scott had a deep reservoir of his colleagues’ goodwill to draw on. But online mudslinging aside, Scott has never been Mr. Popular inside the Senate GOP. Some of that traces back to his unsuccessful stint as NRSC chair, where he was blamed for subpar candidates blowing winnable races in the 2022 cycle and putting out an unvetted policy agenda that put his colleagues on the defensive.

But even more of it has to do with the deeply personal nature of leadership elections — as in, what have you done for me personally? The Republican senator we spoke to had recently been wooed by Scott and shared blunt feedback: Scott hasn’t lifted a finger for most senators’ campaigns, and thus wasn’t considering supporting him. And that was before Sunday night’s MAGA massacre.

And while Scott has been careful to avoid direct attacks on Cornyn and Thune in recent interviews, focusing instead on his support for Trump and his record as Florida governor, it has not gone unnoticed that he appeared with MAGA-fringe figure LAURA LOOMER late last month. In that interview, she accused Thune of being in cahoots with Democrats and went after a top Cornyn ally.

All told, it’s why only 10 Republicans backed Scott when he ran against McConnell in 2022 and why many Republicans speculate that his ceiling this time is only around a dozen or so votes.

WHAT ABOUT TRUMP? — There is one big question still hanging over the race: Will Trump make an endorsement? We’ve spoken to two Trump insiders who say they don’t expect him to. His inner circle is well aware of the insular dynamics of Hill leadership elections, and they know there’s more risk than reward to wading in right now.

After all, what message would it send if his first big political move on Capitol Hill as president-elect was conspicuously ignored?

But even those close to Trump acknowledge that they can’t fully predict what he’ll do, especially since we’re told he has been asking people about the race recently and whether he should put his thumb on the scale. Notably, he spent the weekend golfing with Musk, who’s all in for Scott. And Scott is also close with Trump’s top adviser, SUSIE WILES , though one person we spoke to doubted that relationship would override her professional instincts for protecting Trump.

Trump for now seems to be content wielding his influence without actually making an endorsement. Yesterday he declared that any GOP leader must be willing to support recess appointments to ensure his nominees get confirmed in a timely manner.

The suggestion was somewhat curious — recess appointments are something that come into play when there aren’t 51 Senate votes for a nominee, not when your party is on track to hold 53 seats and the vice presidential tiebreaker.

Still, the power play immediately produced results: All three candidates quickly signaled they were open to the idea.

Good Monday morning, and to all the veterans reading today, thank you for your service and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.

 

A message from America’s Credit Unions and the Independent Community Bankers of America:

CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: America’s approximately 9,000 credit unions and community banks are united in opposition to the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill because credit card routing mandates harm local financial institutions and the communities they serve. Durbin-Marshall jeopardizes access to credit for 140 million credit union and community bank customers. Congress should make no mistake about our adamant opposition.

 

NO REST FOR THE AMBITIOUS — “‘The behind-the-scenes work starts today’: The 2028 shadow primary is underway,” by Adam Wren, Christopher Cadelago, Lisa Kashinsky, Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider: “JOSH SHAPIRO is already fielding calls from Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania urging him to run for president. GAVIN NEWSOM held a Friday call with about 50,000 people in his small-donor network and called a special legislative session designed to Trump-proof California. And PETE BUTTIGIEG is set to tout his Cabinet accomplishments in a series of events as he winds down his official role. Democrats are only a few days into recriminations over why they blew the presidential race. But conversations and moves by ambitious Democrats focused on 2028 have already begun.”

Also mentioned TIM WALZRO KHANNAGRETCHEN WHITMERANDY BESHEARWES MOOREJB PRITZKERKAMALA HARRIS

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Congress returns to session. Biden meets with Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG and holds a bilateral meeting with Indonesian President PRABOWO SUBIANTO at the White House. The UN Climate Change Conference, aka COP29, continues through Nov. 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. … Wednesday: Senate Republicans elect new leaders. Biden and Trump meet at the White House. October CPI inflation numbers released. House Oversight holds hearing on “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.” … Thursday: Biden travels to Lima, Peru. Fed Chairman JEROME POWELL speaks in Dallas.

 

A message from America’s Credit Unions and the Independent Community Bankers of America:

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CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL

 
WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

What we’re watching … The first partisan battle of the lame-duck session is all about … orientation? While the AP and other media outlets have already called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican DAVE McCORMICK, incumbent Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.) isn;t yet conceding, with provisional ballots yet to be tallied and a possible recount to follow. So Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER isn’t inviting McCormick to this week’s new-member gathering. That has incensed some Republicans, who want McCormick to show up anyway. Democrats note that Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), who is on track to win in Arizona, also isn’t invited. Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) chimed in yesterday to say McCormick and Gallego should both be welcomed. More from Greta Reich

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host veterans and military members at the White House at 9 a.m. Then they’ll head with VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF to Arlington National Cemetery, where they’ll take part in the wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at 11 a.m. Biden will speak at 11:15 a.m. Afterward, he’ll travel to Wilmington, Delaware, before returning to the White House in the afternoon.

 

REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Trump speaks at his rally at Madison Square Garden.

Donald Trump’s calls with foreign leaders are taking place outside the usual channels for a president-elect. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO

BIG ONE — Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) has been offered the post of U.S. ambassador to the U.N., CNN’s Kaitlan Collins scooped . If she goes for it, the House GOP Conference chair and Trump loyalist would become an outspoken pro-Israel voice in Turtle Bay. Her departure would also create a temporary vacancy for a potential House GOP majority with tight margins.

TRUMP HOLDS THE LINE — Trump and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN talked on the phone last week after he won the election, and the president-elect told Putin not to step up his invasion of Ukraine, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima, John Hudson and Josh Dawsey scooped. Trump also “briefly raised the issue of land” and talked about seeking peace, as speculation swirls about whether he’ll push Ukraine to strike a deal with Russia, but he also “reminded [Putin] of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe.”

This morning, a Kremlin spokesman denied the call, saying the reporting was “completely untrue,” and noting “there are no concrete plans” yet for Putin to have any contact with Trump, WaPo’s Mary Ilyushina reports.

Notably, Trump’s calls with foreign leaders are taking place outside the usual channels for a president-elect, sans State Department or government interpreter help, because the typical General Services Administration transition agreement hasn’t been signed.

The Ukrainian government denied WaPo’s reporting that it had been given a heads-up about the Trump-Putin call, per Reuters. Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY last week. Per the Post, Zelenskyy is considering replacing Ambassador OKSANA MARKAROVA after GOP criticism of her earlier this year.

On the ground, U.S. officials are warning that Russia has readied 50,000 troops to launch an attack in the Kursk area, NYT’s Julian Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Michael Schwirtz report. That includes reinforcements from North Korea, which has helped Moscow amass the strength to go ahead without yanking troops from eastern Ukraine. Pyongyang’s involvement constitutes a significant shift in the war as events have tilted in Russia’s favor lately.

More top reads:

  • On the chopping block: “State Department Division That Battles Foreign Disinformation Faces Closure,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Dustin Volz: “The office, known as the Global Engagement Center, has vocal backers including retired Army Gen. PAUL NAKASONE … But its most acerbic critics include ELON MUSK … Barring congressional action, the center will shut down after its current seven-year mandate lapses on Dec. 23.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

HAPPENING THIS WEEK — Justice JUAN MERCHAN is expected to rule by tomorrow on whether the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity opinion will trash the hush-money conviction against Trump in New York, Reuters’ Luc Cohen previews.

TRANSITION LENSES

File - In this Dec. 5, 2017 file photo, then Acting Director for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Thomas Homan takes a question from a reporter at a Department of Homeland Security news conference in Washington. A federal immigration official says about 800 people living in Northern California were able to avoid arrest because of a warning by Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf. Homan, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement   chief, told "Fox and Friends" Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018, that what Schaaf did was "no better than a gang lookout yelling 'police' when a police cruiser comes in the neighborhood." (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Former acting ICE Director Tom Homan will be Donald Trump’s “border czar.” | Andrew Harnik, File/AP Photo

IMMIGRATION FILES — Homan’s elevation yesterday as “border czar” — in charge of deportations, among other matters — retrains attention on a key policy question hanging over the new administration: How exactly will Trump pull off his mass deportations?

Reuters’ Ted Hesson and Kristina Cooke report that Trump allies are eyeing “everyone from the U.S. military to diplomats overseas” to make it happen, along with “cooperation with Republican-led states and [using] federal funding as leverage against resistant jurisdictions.” State Department appointees could be crucial to getting other countries to accept deportees. Meanwhile, immigration lawyers are ready to mobilize in court against what’s expected to be even tougher anti-immigrant policy than in Trump’s first term, NYT’s Miriam Jordan and Jazmine Ulloa report. But many migrants are growing nervous, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez and Suvro Banerji report from Nogales, Mexico.

CONGRESS

ONE TO WATCH — “After McCarthy ouster, GOP to consider new requirement for House leadership elections,” by Olivia Beavers: “Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) put forward a rules amendment that would require someone running for any leadership spot to have to resign from their present leadership post to seek another … [C]entrists also filed an amendment setting internal repercussions for Republicans who oppose a procedural vote that allows the party to bring a GOP bill to the House floor for a vote.”

KNOWING THE NEW MEMBERS — “In a Trump-dominated Washington, new arrivals in the House try to emerge,” by CBS’ Scott MacFarlane: “[Rep.-elect LATEEFAH] SIMON and the dozens of others who were newly-elected to Congress on Tuesday face a more immediate hurdle: A tidal wave of life changes.”

RUN IT BACK — NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.) threw his hat in the ring for a second go-around after what looks likely to be a successful run leading House Republicans’ campaign arm, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke reports.

ALL POLITICS

NARRATIVE CORRECTIVE — For all the talk about a huge gender gap in this year’s election, early data indicates that it ended up being the same as in 2020, WSJ’s Rosie Ettenheim and James Benedict report . It did widen notably among 18- to 29-year-olds, though.

PARAGRAPH OF THE DAY — “Trump critics worry he’ll target them for retribution,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas: “A private attorney, MARK ZAID , said he has consulted with clients about how they can best protect themselves in a second Trump administration. He said he has advised some to leave the country before Trump is sworn in and live abroad until they have a clear sense of whether he is bent on retaliation.”

POLICY CORNER

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill June 23, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO via AP Images)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear he won’t resign. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

FIRE SAFETY — Could Trump fire Fed Chair JEROME POWELL or FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY before their terms are up?

The central bank chair has been clear lately that he won’t resign, emphasizing the importance of the norm that the Fed be independent from politics, despite Trump’s grumbling about interest rates. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reports that Powell and Fed leaders planned in 2018, when this prospect last arose, that they’d mount a court fight if Trump tried to fire him. Now that Trump’s returning, so may the emergency plan — which includes the prospect of Powell paying for the legal effort personally. Trump’s advisers are torn over how much he should go after the Fed.

Wray is primarily focused on ensuring a smooth presidential transition period, WaPo’s Perry Stein and Mark Berman report. But his schedule is stretching well into the new year, perhaps indicating that he has no plans to resign. His role, too, is meant to be protected from political interference, but Wray could find himself in a difficult position if Trump tries to weaponize federal law enforcement to go after domestic enemies (or gets mad at Wray specifically).

More top reads:

  • Climate files: At COP29 this week, Senate Budget Chair SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) intends to tell the world that a lot of the U.S. is still committed to fighting climate change, he tells Emma Dumain. And Trump might not be able to halt burgeoning offshore wind energy very easily, particularly for projects that are already running, AP’s Wayne Parry reports from Atlantic City, New Jersey. But when Trump likely pulls out from the Paris Agreement again, the global climate fight could be diminished — or see the U.S. increasingly sidelined, Sara Schonhardt reports.

THE ECONOMY

TALES FROM THE CRYPTO — Bitcoin surged above $81,000 for the first time early today, per Bloomberg. It’s part of a broader burst of optimism for cryptocurrencies, WSJ’s Vicky Ge Huang, Caitlin Ostroff and Dave Michaels report, as the industry expects favorable treatment from Washington that will act with a light regulatory hand and “treat it differently from Wall Street.”

 

A message from America’s Credit Unions and the Independent Community Bankers of America:

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CREDIT UNIONS, COMMUNITY BANKS UNITED AGAINST DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Michael Grimm is paralyzed from the chest down following a polo accident.

Barack and Michelle Obama watched the AU-Harvard basketball game.

Elon Musk was at Trump International Golf Club.

SPOTTED at the Mar-a-Lago patio Saturday night: President-elect Donald Trump chatting with Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Elon Musk, Howard Lutnick, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Tulsi Gabbard, Rudy Giuliani, Charlie Kirk, Steve Moore and Joe Lai.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a 45th-anniversary celebration for Sam Brown, a former ambassador, and writer/photographer Alison Teal, hosted by their children Nicholas and Willa Brown and Teal Zimring at Whittemore House: John and Mary Podesta, Taylor Branch, Bob Borosage, Robert Kuttner, Margaret Carlson, Roger Altman and Jurate Kasickas, Donna Shalala, Kitty Kelley, Chris and Kathy Matthews, Anne Peretz, Nancy Rubin, Sid and Jackie Blumenthal, Tony Podesta, Susan O’Sullivan, David Yarkin and Courtney Carlson, and Joe Klein.

TRANSITION — Jami LaRue is now comms director for Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). She previously was member services and outreach director for the Democratic Women’s Caucus under Chair Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), and is a Rosa DeLauro alum.

ENGAGED — Julian Yowell, counsel at the House Judiciary Committee, proposed to Maddie Crick, deputy chief digital officer at the RNC, yesterday on the terrace of the Kennedy Center. They were originally introduced by Sam Yntema at Maddie’s Halloween party in 2019. Pic

WEDDINGS — Ben Taub, a staff writer at The New Yorker, and Sophie Spiegelberger, a journalist at the FT, got married Oct. 30 at City Hall in NYC. They met in early June at one of Susan MacTavish Best’s salons in NYC. Three months later, they were reunited in Europe, and one night in Vienna, as they shared a small bowl of goulash, they decided to get married and bought rings the next day. Their witness and photographer was Tyler Foggatt, a senior editor at The New Yorker, who had persuaded him to come to Susan’s party with a prophetic line: “You might meet your wife!” PicAnother pic

— Michael Abboud, managing director at Targeted Victory, and Samantha Helton, senior director of federal advocacy at PhRMA, got married this weekend in his hometown of Omaha, Nebraska. Father William Gurnee III officiated. The couple met at happy hour in D.C. through mutual friends. PicAnother picSPOTTED: Meghan Abboud, Molly Abboud, Maggie Abboud, Bruce and Kirby Miller, Mitch and Alyssa Erdel, Ross and Samantha Breslin, Saat Alety, Ryan Eaton, James Farrell, Julie Philp, Cameron and Katherine Foster, Courtney Walsh, Meredith Allison and Jen Jett.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) (5-0) … Alec MacGillis (5-0) … HHS’ Sarah Esty … POLITICO’s Matt Kaminski, John HendelNorm Eisen of Brookings … Edgar EstradaDavid Leiter of Plurus Strategies … Taylor Holgate … NYT’s Ruth Igielnik Robert Raben of Raben … Elisabeth Conklin of the House Small Business Committee … Daniel Huey of Something Else Strategies … former Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) … Jen Brown of Targeted Victory … Jessica JenningsLinda Rozett … former Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) … Rebecca Sharer of Sunshine Sachs … Burson’s Jenna Sauber … New Height Communications’ Aurora MatthewsAustin Welch of DCI Group … Andrew BarnhillNathan Imperiale

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Matthew Kaminski’s name. It also misidentified Bill Johnson’s current title. He is a former representative.

 

A message from America’s Credit Unions and the Independent Community Bankers of America:

CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill would create harmful new routing mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that America’s approximately 9,000 credit unions and community banks across America are opposed to the bill. Credit unions and community banks also see through the so-called “carveout” for community financial institutions, an unworkable policy designed to disguise the negative impact of this legislation. Our message to Congress is simple: on behalf of 140 million credit union and community bank customers in all 50 states, commit to opposing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill. Lawmakers who choose not to support their local financial institutions can expect to hear from our 140 million customers this fall.

 
 

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