Trump knocks over Florida’s dominoes

Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Nov 12, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Kimberly Leonard and Gary Fineout

President-elect Donald Trump greets Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) during a campaign rally.

President-elect Donald Trump greets Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) during a campaign rally. | Evan Vucci/AP

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday. 

Let the game of dominoes begin.

President-elect Donald Trump is quickly filling top roles in his administration. And, as expected, prominent positions are going to Floridians. Trump is expected to nominate Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) for secretary of state and has tapped Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser. Secretary of state must be confirmed by the Senate, whereas NSA doesn't require confirmation.

Rubio, who had been in the mix to be Trump’s running mate, was integral to shaping Trump’s policy on Latin America during his first term and is co-chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Waltz is a Green Beret veteran who was a key surrogate for Trump during his 2024 White House bid. In both cases, the selections mean some serious moving parts are about to take place in Florida politics.

Most immediately, the responsibility for ensuring the seats aren’t vacant for too long will fall to Gov. RON DESANTIS, Trump’s former GOP rival in the primaries. DeSantis would need to set a date for the House vacancy to hold a special election. There are a lot of deadlines and requirements for special elections, but the bottom line is that it would likely take a few months before an election could be held.

Even if DeSantis moves quickly to schedule that election, Waltz’s absence in the lower chamber could complicate governance. The House has yet to be called. And even though Republicans are favored to hold the chamber, it will likely be a small majority — and the last two years in Washington have shown how challenging that environment is.

For the Senate seat, DeSantis would have the power to appoint someone who could remain in the role until at least 2026, which is when a special election to finish the final two years of Rubio’s term would be held. There would then be a regularly scheduled election in 2028 for a full term. Two people close to the governor have told POLITICO that he would likely look to Lt. Gov. JEANETTE NUÑEZ, Florida Attorney General ASHLEY MOODY, former Florida House Speaker JOSE OLIVA or chief of staff JAMES UTHMEIER as possible replacements.

POLITICO reported when Rubio was on the shortlist for VP that DeSantis didn’t intend to appoint himself or Florida first lady CASEY DESANTIS to the role, as is often the topic of speculation in Tallahassee. (And, for those wondering, IVANKA TRUMP still has no intention of rejoining politics.)

It’s possible that Trump will continue to choose leaders from Florida to fill his administration, particularly given that incoming chief of staff SUSIE WILES has deep roots in the state. The House and Senate seat alone are already upending Florida’s future political landscape, as both Waltz and Rubio were considered possible candidates for the 2026 governor’s race. Presumably, anyone Trump decides to endorse in that race would have a huge leg up in the contest, just as DeSantis did in 2018.

And, depending on who DeSantis picks to be Florida’s next senator, the race for that seat and the state attorney general’s race could also get shuffled around, especially if Moody were to be appointed senator. Outgoing Florida House Speaker PAUL RENNER has been floated as a possible contender for attorney general, though he also lives in the same district as Waltz’s soon-to-be vacated seat. Moody and Nuñez were considering running for governor, but may go in a different direction depending on the Senate appointment.

— Kimberly Leonard and Gary Fineout

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.

 

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SENATE MAJORITY LATEST — Support for Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) for majority leader keeps pouring in, including from Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee and Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

But the public jockeying for Scott appears to be rubbing some Republican senators the wrong way, with a few bristling at the thought of being strong-armed, POLITICO's Washington Playbook reported.

As NBC News reports, the contest “is turning into an early test of how much power President-elect Donald Trump's ‘MAGA’ movement will exert in his second term,” reports Sahil Kapur, Matt Dixon and Julie Tsirkin.

“The battle will gauge the staying power of long-serving senior Republicans grounded in an institutionalist view of the Senate, like [Sens. John] Thune and [John] Cornyn, against an emboldened pro-Trump wing looking to smash any vestiges of the old GOP as he returns to power. Scott's seeking to claim the latter mantle and told NBC News in an interview Monday that he'll push ‘the Trump agenda’ if elected.”

Trump apparently has told confidants that Scott's his favorite , but he’s concerned he can’t win, the Bulwark’s Marc Caputo reported.

Rep Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) attends the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15, 2024.

Rep Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) attends the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15, 2024. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

OVER IN THE HOUSE — Rep. KAT CAMMACK (R-Fla.) is running for House Republican Conference chair, the chamber's No. 4 leadership slot. The post opened up after Trump said he would nominate Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) to be ambassador to the United Nations. Cammack’s letter to House colleagues is here

ALSO IN THE HOUSE — Members are expected to consider a slew of new rules this week, including those tied to how leadership is determined, reports POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers.

“Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) put forward a rules amendment that would require someone running for any leadership spot to have to resign from their present leadership post to seek another.”

And “while the majority of Republicans despise the tool that allowed Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) to lead a small cadre of Republicans in ousting [then-House Speaker Kevin] McCarthy against the wishes of most in the GOP conference last October, there are some conservatives in the party who are expected to fiercely fight to keep the threshold.”

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

INSIDE THE TRANSITION ‘PAGEANT’ — President-elect Donald Trump is considering Cabinet candidates from his perch at Mar-a-Lago, write Axios’ Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei.

Trump is “surrounded by TV monitors displaying profiles of potential picks. The interactive array lets aides instantly summon a multimedia menu covering whatever position or person he wants to consider next. … Each digital dossier includes tightly edited clips of a prospect's TV appearances, so Trump can get a sense of how effective they'd be in delivering his message.”

Read more about the scenes from POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison.

LOOKING AHEAD — “Florida voters expect Trump to make life more affordable. But will his policies take us in that direction?” by David Lyons of the Orlando Sentinel . “From the Oval Office, Trump can implement a number of measures with the stroke of a pen. But he can’t unilaterally cut general borrowing costs, a job that belongs to the Federal Reserve. And although the Republican Party appears to be headed for a governing trifecta of controlling the House, Senate and White House, there’s no guarantee that lawmakers will march in lockstep with all of his ideas to help consumers whipsawed by higher prices and taxes.”

On education, Trump’s promises to overhaul schools look a lot like what’s been done in Florida, reports Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times.

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

NOT HAPPENING — The Florida Legislature isn’t expected to make any changes to current abortion laws, which make the procedure illegal in most cases after six weeks of pregnancy, reports Ana Goñi-Lessan of USA Today Network-Florida.

“Every senator has the right — and the responsibility — to file bills important to their constituents and advocate for their priorities,” Florida Senate President Designate BEN ALBRITTON told the publication. “Senators file bills related to marijuana and abortion every year, and I don’t expect that will change. But, to answer your question plainly — for my part, I’m a ‘no.’”

Gov. Ron DeSantis greets a member of the media.

Gov. Ron DeSantis greets a member of the media. | Wilfredo Lee/AP

BENVENUTI IN ROMA — Gov. RON DESANTIS, along with other state government and business leaders, spent his first day in Italy meeting with Italian chambers of commerce, per a post on social media . The group also met with ship-building company Fincantieri “to grow their investment in Florida’s port industry and infrastructure in Miami and Jacksonville.”

They entered new partnerships in higher education and aerospace, per a statement from the governor’s office, which’ll include sharing research with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Sapienza University of Rome and Space Florida.

Meanwhile, the governor chimed in publicly from abroad to indicate that he supports Trump’s pick for “border czar.”

— Florida SAT scores have declined for the third year in a row, continuing a post-Covid slip, reports Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel. A similar trend has been observed nationally.

 

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PENINSULA AND BEYOND

FACING DEVELOPMENT PRESSURES — “Seminole County looks at protecting rural enclaves within urban areas,” reports Martin E. Comas of the Orlando Sentinel. “The county recently kicked off a yearlong study of how to protect … rural pockets from new developments with densities of more than the current one house per acre or per 3 acres. The study could lead to county commissioners enacting tougher land-development regulations within rural enclaves by next fall.”

DESANTIS APPOINTEE — “Orange elections chief [Glen] Gilzean creates $2.1M scholarship fund named for himself,” reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Walker . The decision was “blasted by local leaders, including County Mayor Jerry Demings. Gilzean plans to give every graduating senior at Jones and Evans high schools the opportunity to use the ‘Glen Gilzean, Orange County Supervisor of Elections, Promise of the Future Scholarship’ to attend Valencia College or Orange Technical College, according to an agreement made with the colleges in September. The elections office also plans to host two pep-rally events at Jones and Evans High on Friday featuring bands, cheerleaders and free t-shirts, according to a memo sent to school board members Nov. 6.”

...HURRICANE HOLE...

WATCHING — “Meteorologists are tracking a new disturbance that could become a named storm in the Caribbean Sea — even as hurricane season is technically soon drawing to a close,” reports Matthew Cappucci of The Washington Post. “A broad low-pressure system is expected to materialize over the western Caribbean in the coming days.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

TALLYING DONATIONS — Hedge-fund billionaire and philanthropist KEN GRIFFIN (who moved his firm from Chicago to Miami) was the top individual donor to the Senate Leadership Fund this cycle, reported The Wall Street Journal’s Lindsay Wise and John McCormick. They write, “Griffin contributed $67 million — $30 million in primaries and $37 million in general elections — to help Republicans win the Senate, a person familiar with his donations said.”

Griffin also gave $10 million to the Perez Art Museum in Miami, Bloomberg has reported. The gift to the progressive art display stood in contrast to his donations to conservative candidates and causes in the 2024 election.

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— South Florida now reigns, per the New York Post.

— Walt Disney World has unveiled the 13 villains that’ll be featured as part of its expansion, per a report in Deadline.

BIRTHDAYS: State Sen. Nick DiCeglie … former Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp ... Linda Shelley, former chief of staff for Gov. Lawton Chiles ... Taylor Patrick Biehl of Capitol Alliance Group ... USA Today Network — Florida’s Gray Rohrer.

 

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Kimberly Leonard @leonardkl

 

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