Walkouts, climb downs and insults

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Nov 24, 2024 View in browser
 
Global Playbook x COP29 header

By Suzanne Lynch

BACK FROM THE BRINK: It may have been more than 30 hours beyond the official finish time, but shortly after 2:30 a.m. Sunday morning, the gavel finally came down on COP29 in Azerbaijan.

A close thing: Negotiators reached a deal after days of chaotic diplomacy that saw representatives of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) stage a walkout and some furious mud-slinging between delegates, as developing countries accused richer U.N. members of “shameful” behavior.

“Lots of shouting”: Things came to a head hours after the official end time of 6 p.m. on Friday. Negotiators held a meeting at 1 a.m., continuing until just before dawn, in a bid to end the stalemate. There was, according to a European diplomat briefed on the discussions, “lots of shouting,” — and no breakthrough. Read the full story of what went on in the room from the POLITICO energy and climate team here.

Over the line: But with delegates desperate not to let the COP process fail — and itching to leave Baku Stadium in a mad dash to get on their scheduled flights — negotiators continued working all through Saturday, ultimately landing a deal in the early hours of Sunday morning.

The details: Developed countries will pay $300 billion per year to help poorer ones combat the impact of climate change. The figure was lower than what developing countries wanted but higher than the figure of $250 billion touted in an earlier draft. But negotiators hope this public money will leverage billions more in private investment. “We are confident that we will reach the $1.3 trillion objective,” European Union Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said, referring to the larger 2035 goal also referenced in the final text.

Beijing fudge: Developed countries had been pushing for China to be brought into the donor class of countries, given its huge economic expansion in recent years. In the end, all sides could claim victory. Technically, Beijing's status remains unchanged, but the deal encourages developing countries like China to make contributions, and includes money delivered through multilateral development banks from countries including China.

Fossil fuel language: One of the contentious issues throughout the past two weeks was a push by petrostates like Saudi Arabia to backtrack on language relating to the transition away from fossil fuel in last year’s COP28 communiqué. In the end, it was a partial victory for the oil-guzzling nations. As Sara Schonhardt, Zia Weise, Zack Colman and Karl Mathiesen write, the final text nodded to last year’s agreement, but this time did it without referring directly to the energy sources that cause climate change. Nor did it lay out actions to accelerate toward the goal of phasing out fossil fuels, which European and U.S. negotiators had pushed for.

TALK IS CHEAP: There were plenty of voices quick to jump on the agreement as a sign of their own climate credentials. U.S. President Joe Biden and European Commission PresidentUrsula von der Leyen were swift in issuing statements, despite neither showing up at the COP leaders’ summit.

FURTHER LISTENING: Carbon Brief will hold an online briefing today at 7 p.m. Baku time to discuss the key outcomes of COP.

 

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REACTIONS

BOTTOM LINE: In the end, many expressed a mix of relief tinged with resignation given serious risks the deal could fall apart. But there was a mix of views, as the climate community braces for COP30 next year in Brazil.

Glass half full: Britain’s Energy Secretary Ed Miliband dubbed it “a critical 11th hour deal at the 11th hour for the climate.” U.N. Climate Change boss Simon Stiell said it had been “a difficult journey, but we’ve delivered a deal,” adding: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country."

Glass half empty: “We came in good faith, with the safety of our communities and the wellbeing of the world at heart. Yet we have seen the very worst of political opportunism here at this COP,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, a country at the front line of climate change. Indian negotiator Chandni Raina slammed the $300 billion as a “paltry sum.”

3 QUICK TAKES ...

Michael Bloss, climate and industrial policy spokesperson for the Greens in the European Parliament, said the figures in the deal were “insufficient to combat the climate crisis.” He also hit out at the fossil fuel alliance for “blocking agreement wherever they could.” He said a tax on oil and gas would contribute to achieving the overall climate finance target of $1.3 trillion.

John Denton, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce, said that “from a business perspective there is no time to lose in putting this agreement into action." He noted there’s a “major price tag associated with any delay,” given that extreme weather events cost the global economy $2 trillion over the past decade. But he highlighted the “urgent effort needed to remove established barriers to investments in climate solutions by the business community.”

Ana Luiza Ferreira, environment secretary of the Brazilian state of Pernambuco, welcomed Brazil’s announcement of its Nationally Determined Contribution at COP. “We need ambitious goals, and this is what the federal government has presented. But the issue now will be how to get finance to executive these projects. We need to implement the actions now. We have to be faster in defining the implementation. Subnational governments have a role here.”

THE REAL AZERBAIJAN

GRIM REALITY: Hidden away in an old apartment building, at the top of seven flights of stairs in central Baku, an Azerbaijani woman and her children are waiting. Over tea and cake, a domestic scene that’s worlds away from the high-level diplomacy taking place at Baku Stadium over the past two weeks, Lamiye Çerpanova reveals a side of Azerbaijan that has been kept well away from the cameras.

Imprisoned: This week will mark the one-year anniversary of her husband Aziz Orujov's arrest. The founder of Kanal 13, an independent online TV channel, Orujov was arrested on Nov. 27, 2023 and put in pre-trial detention a day later. Like Yulia Navalnaya and Evgenia Kara-Murza, whose husbands were unlawfully imprisoned by Russia, Çerpanova is telling the story her husband can't.

Full force of the law: Çerpanova shows me a video on her phone of Orujov being arrested by two men, their daughter clinging to her father’s leg as he is taken away. Holding her daughter, now aged 4, in her arms, Çerpanova says the child was traumatized by the experience, leading to speech delays. "We told her that they were taking him to the doctor,” Çerpanova said. “Now, when we visit him in prison, I tell her that her father works there and feeds the cat, so we bring cat food. One time we visited, she took off her shoes and said she would stay there. The guards asked, 'where would you sleep then?' She said 'in the arms of my dad.'”

Quashing dissent: This is Orujov's second stint in prison. He was arrested in 2017 — his “crimes,” according to the authorities, were illegally building a house and money-laundering. He vehemently denies the charges, arguing he is actually being targeted for the crime of journalism.

Kanal 13 covers a range of issues, from Russia's war in Ukraine to rising cost-of-living, to an investigation into houses built beside oil wells, allegedly leading to their residents getting cyanide poisoning. “Whether the court finds him guilty or not, if the government orders them to do so, Aziz will be imprisoned for eight years," said Çerpanova. “I worry about his wellbeing, his health. The situation of political prisoners in Azerbaijan is dire. In prison, they pressure them a lot.”

The international community “needs to put full pressure on the government for the release of these political prisoners,” said Çerpanova. The EU, which recently signed a gas deal with Azerbaijan, also has a role. “Even if they hinted that they would not buy gas it would have an impact."

Keeping up the heat: Austrian Member of European Parliament Lena Schilling, who met with Çerpanova and government critic Gubad Ibadoghlu during COP, said she’s outraged by Azerbaijan’s repression of journalists and critics. “We are going to keep the pressure on post-COP. The most important lever that the EU has is to stop doing dirty gas deals with autocratic oil regimes,” she said.

 

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GLOBAL PEOPLE

SPOTTED ... a good proportion of the EU delegation on the plane from Baku to Istanbul Sunday afternoon, though many had managed to get out of town earlier. (Irish Climate Minister and negotiator Eamon Ryan did an interview from Baku airport just after the deal was sealed in the early hours of Sunday morning.) The only direct flight to London Sunday was also full of red-eyed COP-goers including Ed Miliband, Rachel Kyte and Alison Campbell, as well as a host of journalists (h/t Zia Weise and Karl Mathiesen).

DREAMING SPIRES: Catch up on the latest Power Play podcast, where host Anne McElvoy interviews former U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague, a frontrunner to become the next chancellor of Oxford University. Thousands of alumni have voted, with the results in this week.

SIR BILL: Best of luck to Bill Browder at his investiture as Knight Commander of the Most Distinguished order of St Michael and St George by King Charles III this week. Browder, who is being knighted for his work as a human rights advocate, has been a critical voice urging politicians to raise human rights abuses during their meetings in Azerbaijan.

NEW JOB: Matthew Swift, co-founder and CEO of Concordia, has launched a new company called Montfort Group, an advisory venture based in Palm Beach.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos? I'll be there, along with Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich. Get in touch!

THANKS TO: Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt, Zack Colman and Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

 

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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