We still don't have a House call yet

Nov 06, 2024

Will Rollins shakes hands at a campaign rally.

Democrat Will Rollins is locked in a tight race against GOP. Rep. Ken Calvert that could help decide which party controls the House. | Francis Specker/AP Content Services for Human Rights Campaign

WHAT’S NEXT: Whether you’re celebrating or processing the reality of a second Donald Trump administration, California is central to one big remaining question: Which party will control the House?

Republicans are set to run the Senate and the Oval Office, but Democrats still have a narrow shot at taking over the House. Those hopes hinge on dozens of tight races across the country that have yet to be called, including 13 in the Golden State, as our own Melanie Mason and Steven Shepard report today . Some may not see final outcomes before the end of the week as elections offices tally late-arriving mail-in ballots.

“The potential next speaker, and potentially the only guardrail against Trump having the trifecta in D.C. of executive and both houses of Congress will come down, potentially, to one of these competitive congressional districts,” said Paul Mitchell, a California elections data expert. “Where, as of right now, a Democratic candidate is already behind and has to make up ground in the late votes.”

But as our colleague Anthony Adragna reported today, that window may be closing for Democrats, who would need victories nearly across the board to win the chamber.

“The path to take back the majority now runs through too-close-to-call pick-up opportunities in Arizona, Oregon and Iowa — along with several Democratic-leaning districts in Southern California and the Central Valley,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said today in a statement.

Here’s where things stand as of this afternoon in the most competitive California House contests — as well as a few sleeper races that have come into play. It’s hard to say which party will benefit more from the late vote since the “red/blue shift” has varied so much from cycle to cycle. But the 2022 vote patterns could offer some clues.

The closest of the battleground races

District 13: GOP Rep. John Duarte vs. Democrat Adam Gray

We’ll kick things off with this Central Valley rematch, which took until Dec. 2 to decide in 2022. Duarte is leading with about 51 percent of the vote, but only about 3,200 votes separate him from Gray. Two years ago, late mail-in votes slightly favored Republicans, which may help the congressmember hold on.

District 41: GOP Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Democrat Will Rollins

Shifting downstate to Riverside County, Calvert has a slight edge over Rollins in their rematch. Historically, late mail has skewed GOP in this district, so that gives Calvert an advantage as votes continue to roll in.

District 47: Democratic state Sen. Dave Min vs. Republican Scott Baugh

In the Orange County race to succeed Rep. Katie Porter, Baugh enjoys a small lead over Min. Trailing mail-in ballots have previously trended blue in this district, which includes UC Irvine, so Min may be able to squeak through.

District 27: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia vs. Democrat George Whitesides

Whitesides is trailing Garcia by nearly 5,400 votes in his northern Los Angeles County district, but he is banking on blue mail-in votes that may continue to trickle in.

Less-close battlegrounds

District 45: GOP Rep. Michelle Steel vs. Democrat Derek Tran

Steel is ahead by about 5 points in this pricey Orange County race. There are likely more blue mail-in votes to come, but it may not be enough to overcome Steel’s current margins.

District 22: GOP Rep. David Valadao vs. Democrat Rudy Salas

Valadao is leading Salas in this Central Valley rematch by about 10 points. He’s been in Congress for longer than Duarte, and he’ll likely be more challenging to unseat.

Revenge of the sleepers

District 9: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder vs. Republican Kevin Lincoln

This race was on our list of “wobbler” contests , which race-watchers considered to be in play, even though they got less attention and fewer resources from parties.

Harder is narrowly ahead by just about 2,000 votes. But if historical voting patterns hold, late mail will trend his way.

District 49: Democratic Rep. Mike Levin vs. Republican Matt Gunderson

Levin has a lead of about 5,100 votes, giving him an advantage he should be able to maintain with mail-in votes to come.

— with help from Melanie Mason

IT’S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

Kamala Harris points and speaks behind a podium.

Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a concession speech and vowed to continue the battle she waged through her campaign. | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

FIGHTING WORDS: Vice President Kamala Harris delivered her concession speech this afternoon at Howard University in Washington, D.C., vowing to continue the battle she waged through her campaign, albeit not from the White House.

“This is not a time to throw up our hands,” Harris said. “It is a time to roll up our sleeves.”

Her speech spurred similarly-themed messages from California leaders who have been preparing to lead a second Trump resistance.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement “our fight for freedom and opportunity endures.”

“California will seek to work with the incoming president,” Newsom said. “But let there be no mistake, we intend to stand with states across our nation to defend our Constitution and uphold the rule of law. Federalism is the cornerstone of our democracy. It’s the United STATES of America.”

Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire said in a statement Californians are “more determined than ever to pursue and protect the values that make this state great.”

“If there are efforts to try to undermine our state, our freedoms, or our democracy, the President-elect will quickly see how determined the people of California truly are,” he said.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said in an X post that Angelenos “will always protect each other.”

“No matter where you were born, how you came to this country, how you worship, or who you love, Los Angeles will stand with you,” she said. “This is not a time for despair, this is a time for action. I’ve spoken with leaders across the city, the state and the country. We are ready.”

Meanwhile a group of social justice nonprofits — many focused on serving the state’s immigrants — announced a coalition called “We are California.”

“Corporate billionaires, bigots, and authoritarian bullies see our vision for a California where everyone has the freedom to thrive as a threat,” the coalition’s website says. “They want to shut down progress toward a strong California for all. We can’t let them.”

CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao looks on during a press conference.

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has not yet conceded her recall election, even though early returns show her trailing by considerable margins. | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images

NOT GIVING IN: Neither Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao nor Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price are conceding their recall elections despite early returns showing both trailing by considerable margins. Sixty-five percent of voters were backing both recall bids, according to the latest results posted early this morning, but the Associated Press has yet to call either race.

Both progressive leaders are in danger of losing their jobs over rising public safety concerns, but they remained upbeat even after the dismal initial numbers were posted. Thao said outside a watch party last night that she was optimistic later tallies would swing her way, and Price released a statement this morning claiming that the remaining ballots come from areas where “I know we did well in getting our message out.”

If voter turnout in Alameda County remains on par with 2020, only a quarter of ballots county-wide would have been counted so far. The next vote drop is not expected until tomorrow evening, according to a representative with the Alameda County Registrar of Voters.

Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas has already begun working on a transition process despite the remaining votes, noting that “it appears the voters have spoken.”

“I am optimistic that when all the votes are counted, we will be able to continue the hard work of transforming our criminal justice system,” Price said. — Eric He

UNDER THE RADAR: A couple of up-for-grabs Southern California legislative seats have turned into tight races between Republicans and Democrats. We didn’t feature these contests in our reporting on top party targets, but they’re both blue seats that could flip red, based on current tallies.

In the race to succeed Assemblymember Sabrina Cervantes in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, her sister, Clarissa Cervantes, is trailing Republican Leticia Castillo by less than 1,000 votes.

At the same time, Sabrina Cervantes is winning her own state Senate contest by about 9,500 votes.

Farther south, Republican Jeff Gonzalez is leading Democrat Jose “Joey” Acuña Jr. by a very slim margin in the contest to succeed Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia, whose district includes parts of Riverside County and all of Imperial County.

WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

— California dealt criminal justice reform a punishing blow at the ballot box last night. (POLITICO)

— Here’s what to expect from a second Trump term. (POLITICO)

— Harris’ campaign late last summer rejected a $10 million proposal from the Congressional Black Caucus to reach undecided Black voters. (POLITICO)

— Why Gavin Newsom is poised to once again lead California’s resistance against Trump. (San Francisco Chronicle)

AROUND THE STATE

— Early voting returns show incumbent Democrat Todd Gloria leading independent Larry Turner in the San Diego mayoral race. (San Diego Union-Tribune)

— Ysabel Jurado leads LA City Councilmember Kevin de León after a bruising contest. (Los Angeles Times)

— A Los Angeles gynecologist surrendered his medical license after the Medical Board of California accused him of providing unwanted “religious counseling” to patients. (Los Angeles Times)

— The San Francisco 49ers spent $2.4 million on Santa Clara City Council races. Early returns suggest the team’s investments are paying off. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— A measure to permanently close the Great Highway in San Francisco leads in early returns . (San Francisco Standard)

— compiled by Tyler Katzenberger

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