RAISE A GLASS: We’re closing out 2024 by looking back to get a glimpse into the future. This year has been eventful, to say the least. From a Californian making a last-minute presidential bid to the ousters of three Bay Area leaders and Democrats flipping three House seats in drawn-out vote counts, we have not lacked for things to write about. And as we look into our crystal ball, it’s clear that many of the things that happened in Sacramento and around the state will continue to reverberate in 2025 and beyond. Here are some of 2024’s top political moments. MONEY TROUBLES: California began the year with a staggering budget deficit — and was able to lean heavily on budget maneuvers and reserve funds to close it. But the budget crunch isn’t over yet. The fiscal pressure will continue to build next year, thanks to a health-care spending ballot measure Gov. Gavin Newsom criticized, President-elect Donald Trump's threat to withhold disaster-relief funds and a flurry of Trump-proofing funding requests from immigration, health care and clean energy advocates. BALLOT MOOD: The narrow passage of Newsom’s mental health bond, Proposition 1, followed by Proposition 36’s convincing win, revealed the limitations of Newsom’s endorsement and the mood of the California electorate. Voters that traditionally have been quite willing to fund social services suddenly appeared hesitant to do so (in the case of Prop 1, which approved billions in bonds to fund new housing and mental health services). They also showed an eagerness to walk back programs by approving Prop 36, a crime measure led by prosecutors. Newsom made it his priority to pass Prop 1, which eventually squeaked over the finish line, and made his opposition to Prop 36 clear. But a more punitive electorate appeared less interested in Newsom’s opinion and more intent on seeing a change in approach in a state facing homelessness, housing and crime concerns — an outcome that will surely shape Democratic proposals next year. CAMPUS PROTESTS: The war in Gaza led to a flurry of anti-Israel protests on college campuses, with students setting up encampments and calling for schools to divest from funds supporting the country. In California, violence broke out at a UCLA encampment between protesters and counterprotesters. Jewish students and professors on campuses throughout the state felt targeted by antisemitic rhetoric, prompting leaders to to call for action. Newsom in September signed a bill requiring public universities to update their codes of conduct and require student anti-discrimination training and instruction on how to protest civilly, and the protests have since died down. But the campus movement could surge back if Trump fails to negotiate an end to the war or inflames tensions. KAMALA FOR PRESIDENT: One of California’s most prominent politicians, Kamala Harris, was suddenly launched to the top of the presidential ticket in July after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance. The shift left a lot of questions about Newsom’s own presidential ambitions and political future. When Harris lost, the lame-duck governor was suddenly back in the game. As for the vice president, the conversation has moved on to speculation about whether she’ll parlay her presidential run into a bid for California governor in 2026, or even take another shot at the top job in 2028. This Playbook writer would be fascinated by a gubernatorial primary featuring both Harris and soon-to-be former Rep. Katie Porter, who has also been hinting at joining the race. That seems unlikely, but a girl can always dream. BAY AREA UPHEAVAL: The Bay Area got big political shake-ups this year, with both Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price getting recalled and San Francisco Mayor London Breed losing her reelection bid. Thao had come under scrutiny for her ties to the powerful Duong family, and her house was searched by the FBI. Both Thao and Price were also targeted by voters frustrated with the area’s ongoing public safety and financial problems. A special election in April will decide who should serve out the remainder of Thao’s term, and there’s been talk of Rep. Barbara Lee jumping into the 2026 Oakland mayor’s race. Even former NFL star Marshawn Lynch has floated a run. And in San Francisco, a victorious Daniel Lurie has signaled he will likely focus on local issues rather than taking on Trump, as Breed did. FLIP IT: California Democrats set out to flip five House seats, but going 3-2 gave them cause for celebration in an otherwise grim election cycle for the party nationwide. Now that Dems have secured purple seats in Southern California and the Central Valley, they’ll be playing defense in 2026. — with help from Will McCarthy, Katy Murphy and Blake Jones IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
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