Hot mess summer (and the lessons learned)

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Sep 05, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Welcome back. Let's go.

In today's edition:

→ How summer politics will shape autumn on the Hill.

→ Three things we’re watching.

→ Plus, a conversation with Housing Minister SEAN FRASER.

DRIVING THE DAY


SUMMER OF DRAMA If you spent your days sipping West Coast IPA on your camp chairs or reading a book on the dock far, far away from political social media, lobster-gate and the don’t-believe-the-polls counter-hype, congrats! You won summer.

While you were away, a few big events shook up the federal political scene.

And there’s a thing or two to be learned, as we count down to the fall in Canadian politics:

13 days until the House returns.
7 days until the Liberal caucus retreat.
2 days until Conservative convention kickoff.
1 day to the next central bank rate decision.

— Three big things: From the spectacle of the madly-off-in-all-directions, pre-Cabinet shuffle speculation and subsequent post-shuffle spin, to backroom jostling over a foreign interference inquiry and political jousting over inflation and housing, it was a surprisingly busy summer. Three episodes stand out:

THE TRUDEAUS SPLIT

→ The event: It was intensely personal news for the family. Liberals don’t want to muse too publicly about what it might mean.

And it could shake out in a few different ways:

  • New responsibilities and arrangements in his personal life could weigh on JUSTIN TRUDEAU, making him think again about remaining on as leader. 
  • Getting it out there could lift a weight off of him, creating conditions in which he can  bounce back.
  • There could be little to no measurable effect on his performance.

The takeaways: This will leave a mark on the overall media narrative about Liberal leadership, adding fuel to the speculation fire — especially since the effect of it is almost entirely private, meaning no one really knows anything, leaving pundits free to fill that space with guesses and suggestions ad infinitum.

The media seems to be making up its mind that as the polls dip, Trudeau will have to take a walk in the snow — although that’s his choice, and there are no tangible indications he won’t stay on.

CABINET WAS SHUFFLED

The event: Most of it was rearranged, except for the key players. Seven are down and out. The revamped Cabinet huddled for its first retreat mid-summer, without any announceables.

The takeaways: The more players involved in a shuffle, the harder it is to keep news from leaking and spinning around the news cycle.

The government anchored its messaging around its economic team. And yet emphasizing that communication was the problem they were trying to solve set off a range of hot takes since keeping on those key players — some of whom are considered the worst communicators — sent out a conflicting message.

The appearance of housing experts at the retreat — following some politically awkward comments — raises expectations for what comes next, and also raises questions of whether housing will factor into the Fall Economic Statement.

The Liberals are ending summer with a shored up front bench, but a strong Conservative polling narrative taking shape.

WORST WILDFIRE SEASON EVER

→ The event: Tens of thousands of people evacuated from their homes in B.C. and Northwest Territories.

The takeaway: More people walk out of summer worrying about the new normal for climate in Canada.

Similar weather conditions that led to the fires only happen once every 25 years, but they’re becoming increasingly likely.

Northwest Territories is in a rough place, and the premier has shown frustration with the federal government ignoring infrastructure requests for help for years — which elicited a response.

And this is already changing the way the political class talks about climate change, carbon tax and beyond.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

Member of Presidential Guards' bomb squad unit lead a sniffer dogs as they patrol outside the venue of the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, Monday, Sept. 4, 2023. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations meetings will open Tuesday in the Indonesian capital Jakarta under tight security. (AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim)

A bomb squad unit leads sniffer dogs on patrol outside the venue of the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Monday. | AP

On the world stage: Trudeau will be in Jakarta, Indonesia, for the ASEAN Summit through Wednesday; he’ll then make a stop in Singapore en route to the G-20 in New Delhi (Sept. 9-10).

In the hot seat: Governor TIFF MACKLEM will share the latest decision from the Bank of Canada Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET.

Into the fray: The Conservative Party of Canada holds a policy convention through Saturday in Quebec City. The confab starts Thursday.

For your radar


SHORT-TERM NOTICE — Ontario Premier DOUG FORD replaced STEVE CLARK as provincial housing minister hours after Clark's high-profile resignation amid a punishing Greenbelt scandal.

The premier shuffled his Cabinet late on Labor Day Monday — one of the quieter moments on the political calendar.

Ford tapped PAUL CALANDRA to clean up the mess at municipal affairs and housing, where back-to-back watchdog reports have raised questions about the government's relationship with developers.

CAROLINE MULRONEY is now president of the Treasury Board, where the chattering classes are debating where the move sits on the promotion/demotion scale. (Sound familiar, Ottawa?)

PRABMEET SARKARIA is transportation minister. STAN CHO is minister of long-term care. ROB FLACK is associate minister of housing with a focus on "attainable housing and modular homes." TODD MCCARTHY is associate minister of transportation. NINA TANGRI is associate minister of small business.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Jakarta, Indonesia.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with private meetings on her itinerary.

— Ontario Premier DOUG FORD will provide remarks at 10 a.m. and hold a media availability.

— At 11 a.m. local time, PC Leader HEATHER STEFANSON is expected to officially call Manitoba's Oct. 3 election.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Housing Minister Sean Fraser at the University of British Columbia on Aug. 16.

Housing Minister Sean Fraser at the University of British Columbia on Aug. 16. | Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press

GREAT EXPECTATIONS — SEAN FRASER spent the summer getting briefed up in his new role as minister of crisis management — aka minister of housing, infrastructure and communities. The Nova Scotia MP's job: Find a way to build more homes.

Fraser is open to options. During a summer Cabinet retreat, the former immigration minister made news when he told reporters his government might consider a cap on international students — the number of which has ballooned in recent years — in an effort to ease demand for housing.

But Fraser is getting into the housing weeds with cities. He urged the mayor of London, Ont., to approve four units on a single lot as part of its application for a piece of the federal Housing Accelerator Fund — a C$4 billion pool of money meant to help cities speed up homebuilding. The city council unanimously approved that change.

The minister isn't shy about contrasting his approach with PIERRE POILIEVRE, who has vowed that cities either meet housing targets or they'll “face big financial penalties and have portions of their federal funding withheld.

Playbook spoke with Fraser about his new portfolio.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

What housing issues aren't getting the attention they deserve?

A lot of people do not realize how hard done by some of their neighbors are. And for somebody who's never lived with homelessness as part of their life experience, it's very difficult to even imagine what your neighbors are going through and how it impacts every aspect of their lives and every moment of their day.

There needs to be a change in approach because even though we reentered the conversation around housing through the National Housing Strategy, the focus was disproportionately on low-income, affordable housing — which is important.

But increasingly, I'm hearing from students who cannot find a place they can afford within an hour commute of their campus. I'm hearing from seniors who are retiring into a very different economy than they had planned and saved to retire into, given the experience of post-Covid inflation. And perhaps most commonly, I'm hearing from working families, sometimes where there are two people working in the household, and they cannot afford a place to live in the community where they work.

International students have become a flashpoint for immigration and housing debates in Canada. How did that sneak up on policymakers?

What we've seen in the last couple of years, since the economy reopened from the pandemic, is an explosion in the number of study permits that are issued. And in particular, we've seen an enormous increase in the number of permits issued by colleges. That's not to say all of the colleges are bad actors. Many of them are phenomenal institutions that are providing education in exactly the areas the economy needs. But I'm convinced that there are others who are not interested in the well-being of the students who come, who do not provide a quality education, and who are using international students as a cash cow to further the private interests of the institution or the people who own them.

We need to root out those bad actors, which will create an opportunity to reduce any pressure on the pockets of Canada where we have a high concentration of new arrivals. But it will also provide an opportunity to respect the talent that international students bring to our communities.

Pierre Poilievre says he’d withhold federal funding from cities that don't build enough housing — sticks instead of carrots. You recently sent a letter to the mayor of London, Ont., that encouraged his city council to promise certain kinds of housing in an application for federal funding. Is that hands-on approach a carrot or a stick?

It's a more hands-on approach because I'm a more hands-on person. I can't stomach the idea of not squeezing every ounce of productivity out of the programs we put on the table. We have used taxpayers' money to incentivize the building of homes more quickly through the Housing Accelerator Fund. And I think to myself, what good am I doing if I am leaving extra homes on the table by cutting a check for somebody who's doing less than what they could do?

I identified a couple of areas where I thought the city could do more, and I sensed they would be willing to do more. They responded to my letter, and indicated that in two of the three areas they actually had plans in the works. They were doing those with or without the Housing Accelerator Fund. But on the other area — building four units as-of-right without requiring a zoning bylaw amendment — they said, "You've asked us to do four; we had been planning on three. But if you're telling us this is what will allow us to partner, then we won't just tell you we'll do it. We're going to present a motion to council and we're going to vote on it and have it passed unanimously."

Are you writing similar letters to other municipalities?

We've got many drafts. Let's just say I'm going to be very busy over the next couple of months.

MEDIA ROOM


— The criminal trial of convoy organizers TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER gets under way in Ottawa. The Canadian Press sets the scene.

— POLITICO’s VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA says Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s choice for the country’s new defense minister sends two clear signals: “Kyiv is serious about cleaning up corruption, and steadfast about regaining Crimea from Russian control.”

— On The Decibel pod: Are small, family-run businesses dying in Canada?

— Former U.S. ambassador to Canada BRUCE HEYMAN tells MIKE LAPOINTE of The Hill Times that former U.S. president DONALD TRUMP’s run for the White House creates “an incredibly high-risk moment.”

— The government’s online news bill can’t overcome its own flawed assumptions, SEAN SPEER and RUDYARD GRIFFITHS argue on The Hub.

— Star columnist ALTHIA RAJ says NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is refreshing a list of demands, which he expects to present to the PM in mid-September.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM: An up-to-date roster of the Trudeau Cabinet chiefs of staff.

→ For Premium subscribers: A Pro Datapoint on the Trudeau Cabinet. 

In other news for POLITICO Pro subscribers:

G-7’s plan for AI rules expected as soon as November.

EU countries divided over increasing climate target ahead of COP28.

The coming Manchin-Biden feud over 'clean hydrogen'.

Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration suspends LNG-by-rail rule.

EU won’t ‘dilute’ ambition, says new climate chief.

Playbookers


Birthdays: HBD to broadcaster VALERIE PRINGLE, who is 70 today. Also celebrating: Enterprise Canada’s MITCH HEIMPEL and former MP JAMES LUNNEY. 

Spotted: Sen. DIANE BELLEMARE in Le Devoir urging the Bank of Canada to not raise its policy interest rate on Wednesday … Sooke Mayor MAJA TAIT, scooping the federal NDP nomination to run in Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, succeeding RANDALL GARRISON.

First lady JILL BIDEN, testing positive for Covid-19 Monday evening.

Movers and shakers: ZITA ASTRAVAS has bid adieu to federal politics after stints as chief of staff to BILL BLAIR and HARJIT SAJJAN as well as at PMO.

KATIE POIRIER has left her PMO post as KATIE TELFORD’s executive assistant … MONIQUE LUGLI is Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND’s chief of staff … CAROLINE CHARETTE has wrapped up her stint as Canada’s ambassador to Hungary, Slovenia and to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

NICHOLAS KANG recently joined the Prime Minister's Office as a senior policy adviser focused on economic issues. Kang previously served as policy director and deputy chief of staff to then-employment minister CARLA QUALTROUGH.

Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY has appointed PING KITNIKONE as Canada’s next ambassador to Thailand … JOSEPH DUNN has been tapped to be Canada’s honorary consul in New Orleans, Louisiana … EMILY MCLAUGHLIN takes over as Canada’s ambassador to the Czech Republic.

MARK LAMBERT is expected to become deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan at the U.S. State Department.CARMELA LAURIGNANO of Evanov Communications Group has been appointed as board chair for the Canadian Association of Broadcasters.

Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ reappointed ELIZABETH CATHERINE BARKER as vice-chair of the Canadian Transportation Agency and tapped Chief MARILYN MAY SLETT of the Heiltsuk Nation in B.C. as member of the Pacific Pilotage Authority.

Media mentions: ANDREW SAUNDERS has taken over from PHILLIP CRAWLEY as president and chief executive officer of the Globe. Chairman DAVID THOMSON called Crawley’s 25-year tenure “nothing short of exceptional.” 

Farewells: RAYMOND MORIYAMA, one of Canada's greatest architects and co-designer of the Canadian War Museum, has died.

TRIVIA


Aug. 25 answer: “The streets of the city as we entered were like a combined Mardi Gras, Fourth of July celebration, American Legion convention and New Year’s Eve in Times Square all packed into one,” DON WHITEHEAD of The Associated Press wrote after Allied troops entered Paris on Aug. 25, 1944 to liberate the French capital from Nazi occupation.

Props to SARA MAY, ALYSON FAIR, BOB GORDON, JOHN ECKER, JOHN MERRIMAN, JIM CAMPBELL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, KATHERINE FEENAN and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER.

Have a question that will stump Playbook readers? Send it our way.

Today’s question via Playbook reader JASON MARGOLIS: During her 70-year reign, Queen Elizabeth II met with 13 of 14 U.S. presidents. Which president did she not meet?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson.

 

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