Fossil fuel COP out

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Dec 11, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Suzanne Lynch

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S&P GLOBAL COMMODITY INSIGHTS

WELCOME TO THE FINAL (OFFICIAL) DAY OF COP28. The U.N. climate talks that have taken over the glitzy city of Dubai for almost two weeks are meant to wrap up today — but it’s far from a done deal.

COP meltdown: Tempers frayed last night as negotiators were still trying to thrash out agreement on the Global Stocktake — a report card on the progress made on the Paris Climate Agreement signed eight years ago — with delegates clashing about the extent to which action on fossil fuel should feature in the final text.

IN FOR THE LONG HAUL: Looks like COP President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber‘s goal of finishing at 11 a.m. today is wishful thinking. Overheard in the Blue Zone: EU climate czar Wopke Hoekstra saying he flies out Friday.

WHO’S STILL HERE: Foreign, energy and environment ministers from across the globe, U.N. chief António Guterres, al-Jaber, thousands of delegates from NGOs.

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Who’s not: Most of the corporate types and lobbyists, who headed for the hills once the parties came to a halt.

DRAMA IN DUBAI

FOSSIL FUEL COP OUT: There were dramatic scenes late Monday, as the latest draft text was published — with a reference to a full “phaseout” of fossil fuels from previous versions scrapped.

Won’t anybody think of the children? Countries on both sides of the fossil divide lined up to rankle at the text at the fractious closed-door meeting Monday night, which Playbook tuned into via an unsanctioned feed. “I don’t know what will happens to my kids tomorrow if we stick to this text,” France’s Minister for Energy Transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher said.

Pick your put-down: More criticism came thick and fast, with some delegations including the EU vowing to walk away if the draft declaration isn’t changed. A sample of the reactions:

— “Deeply offensive,” said former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.

— A “death warrant,” said John Silk, minister of natural resources of the Marshall Islands.

— “A dog’s dinner,” according to Greenpeace.

— “Completely insufficient,” the Alliance of Small Island States said.

— “Not good enough,” said Mary Robinson, chair of The Elders.

— “Gravely fails to provide the step forward we desperately need,” according to Global Justice Now.

— “Who does this text actually serve?” asked Alok Sharma, the COP26 president.

ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE: But despite howls of outrage, the latest text does contain the first explicit mention of “fossil fuels” in any COP declaration (a pledge to reduce coal, but not oil or gas, was referenced at COP26). Specifically, the draft text calls on parties to take action that “could” include “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net zero by, before or around 2050, in keeping with the science.”

WHAT NEXT? Heads of delegations and ministers were locked in meetings overnight, with a new text expected this morning.

SAUDI SABOTAGE

THE NEW BAD BOY OF COP: Al-Jaber must be breathing a sigh of relief: While the UAE came in for a deluge of criticism for its oil-producing antics in the early days of COP28, now Saudi Arabia has become Public Enemy No. 1.

Riyadh digs in: In recent days, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, became the main block to a commitment to phase down or phase out fossil fuel — something that would be truly ground-breaking.

Lavish greenwashing: Unsurprisingly, the deep-pocketed kingdom had one of the most OTT pavilions at COP this year. The futuristic Saudi Green Initiative Forum which dominates the Green Zone skyline aimed to showcase Riyadh’s “green” credentials — such as its increase in renewable energy capacity.

Disney in the desert: The interactive exhibit takes visitors through a kaleidoscopic “experience,” which begins with 3D versions of Saudi’s historic sites like the Rajajil Columns, through to a giant Earth hologram, before finishing outside in a real-life arboretum.

Jamal Khashoggi whoImmerse yourself in the soothing music and you could almost forget that Saudi Arabia consistently ranks as one of the most repressive countries in the world, according to bodies like Freedom House and Amnesty International.

BIDEN CAN’T WIN: Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden‘s landmark green investment program known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains hundreds of billions in climate and green energy incentives, has been a big talking point here at COP. But while the rest of the world can’t get enough of it, Bidenomics is falling flat with American voters, report my colleagues Karl Mathiesen, Zack Colman and Charlie Cooper.

DISUNITED STATES: COP28 saw a big turnout of U.S. members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. But despite attempts to project unity, huge divisions between Democrats and Republicans were on show — particularly on fossil fuels, write Emma Dumain, Sara Schonhardt and Zack Colman.

Trump 2.0: Looming over it all? What it means for the world’s climate ambitions if the man who yanked the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement returns to the White House. But as Zack Colman writes, the Republican lawmakers who trekked to Dubai for the U.N. climate gathering made it clear they weren’t eager to discuss the former president.

 

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FINAL DAY TIPS

NO MORE FREE LATTES: Most of the pavilions are packing up their wares, so there are no more free coffees to be had. But some of the dining spots will remain open, including Gup & Shup, the Indian eatery which offers the best value lunch in the Blue Zone (65 AER for two courses).

COP LIKE A TOURIST: If you’re hanging around waiting for the final negotiation text to drop, or you have a few hours to kill before heading to the airport, here’s a sample of some of Dubai’s top attractions:

— Drop some cash in the Gold Souk (situated on the metro red line, and quite near the airport, if you want to pick up some bling for your loved ones before jetting home).

— Visit the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, preferably at night when it comes into its own.

— Let your hair down at one of Dubai’s famous “sparkling brunches” in the city’s five-star hotels, where the booze flows and inhibitions go out the window. What goes on tour, stays on tour?

— Get into the Christmas spirit at Ski Dubai at the Mall of the Emirates. Billed as the world’s largest indoor ski slope, it even has its own penguins (yes, you read that right). Just don’t think too hard about the climate cost or your head might explode.

PROGRAMMING NOTE

ONE LAST RODEO: Global Playbook will be back in your inbox one last time from COP28 in Dubai once negotiations finish. After that, keep an eye out for us ahead of the next big global event — the World Economic Forum in Davos, kicking off January 15.

THANKS to Zack Colman, Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt, Seb Starcevic.

Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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