By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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WELCOME TO CHINA WATCHER. This is Stuart Lau reporting from snow-covered Estonia, where an investigation is still going on to see how a Chinese ship was involved in damaging its undersea cables connecting Finland. We’ll have more below. Phelim Kine will report from the U.S. on Thursday.
EU-CHINA SUMMIT DEBRIEFING
DIPLOMATIC YET DIVERGENT: The EU-China summit last week ended with little in terms of substance, though the atmosphere came with less confrontation and more “adult-like conversation” than once feared, according to officials and diplomats briefed about the details of the Thursday meeting in Beijing. While Xi Jinping made no direct commitment to the EU’s two main concerns — Chinese companies’ circumvention of EU sanctions against Russia as well as the trade imbalance — the Chinese leader made sure that the EU duo left the room feeling no contempt on Beijing’s part.
Wine and dine: Xi spent a longer-than-scheduled three hours, including a summit meeting and a lunch, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her European Council counterpart, Charles Michel, according to EU officials. In the evening it was Premier Li Qiang‘s turn to host the two for a dinner on a long table with the EU pair down the sides.
Xi’s exuding confidence: While the economy was not in good shape — with rating agency Moody’s cutting China’s credit outlook to negative 48 hours before the EU-China summit — Xi went full throttle in defending China’s economic prospects, according to the officials. The Chinese leader also boasted of the country’s social development, including the quality of its education. The message is clear: that Beijing sees it as necessary to woo Europe despite the bad press…
But but but: On those two issues deemed critical to the EU — sanctions circumvention and trade imbalances — China would only agree to keep engaging Europe, without offering any fresh concessions.
TIME IS RUNNING OUT? Michel indicated that, absent Chinese action, EU countries will have to take action. "We will … debrief our member states because the member states will have to decide what further action to be done," he told the media. The EU is considering a plan to put 13 Chinese firms on the next package of sanctions.
UK acted already: Britain last week sanctioned three Chinese companies involved in aiding Russia. “This signals the U.K.'s no tolerance approach to those enabling Russia's illegal war, wherever they may be,” a government statement read.
Even more interestingly: Xi told von der Leyen to align Belt and Road with her Global Gateway initiative, Chinese state media reported. That’s despite the European Commission chief and EU officials already making clear that the EU scheme is supposed to counter Belt and Road’s influence in developing countries.
HOW CHINA SEES IT: China is concerned about the result of the EU's ongoing probe into state subsidies behind the electric vehicles made in China — which may be heading to Europe's shores in greater quantities given weak domestic consumer power in the Chinese market.
Without referring directly to the probe, Chinese Premier Li voiced his concern, saying: "China is opposed to … the politicization and securitization of economic and trade issues [and] hopes that Europe would be cautious in rolling out restrictive trade policies and using trade remedies."
Strong aftertaste: Chinese foreign ministry Director-General for European Affairs Wang Lutong said in a debriefing after the summit that China’s surplus with the EU was already falling — taking a swipe at von der Leyen’s top concern. “Both sides discussed about what Brussels has been calling imbalance about bilateral trade — we don't think China could be held accountable for this," Wang told reporters, adding that Beijing did not believe there was overcapacity in its electric vehicles sector. The Financial Times has the report.
BALTIC PROBE
IS BEIJING DRIVING A WEDGE BETWEEN FINLAND AND ESTONIA? As the two Baltic Sea nations investigate gas pipeline damage suspected to have been carried out by a Chinese ship, diplomats say Beijing seems to be working with the two countries with a varying degree of cooperation.
Here in Tallinn, the officials’ tone is significantly less positive than in Helsinki, saying that the investigation remains ongoing and there’s no update on whether China has replied to their requests for information. That contrasts with Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, who told POLITICO that “China has promised their assistance for the investigation and we trust them to help us out in this, that we have a thorough and transparent investigation.”
Joint probe in Tianjin? The Baltic Times reported earlier last week that the two EU and NATO countries have asked to send representatives to Beijing to investigate the vessel, which reached the Chinese port city of Tianjin this week. Valtonen said Friday the investigation into the vessel "has not taken place yet," but she expects that "there will be more information within a few days."
Michel also told Xi to cooperate with the two member countries’ demand, according to an official briefed about the EU-China summit.
Why did the Chinese ship do it? Authorities have yet to determine whether the incident was accidental or intentional, but Finnish and Estonian public officials and military personnel have largely speculated that it might be an intentional act of sabotage, Claudia Chiappa reports.
Implication — China vs NATO: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance has been “sharing information” and “stands ready to support Allies concerned” two months ago. Last month, Stoltenberg said NATO had significantly stepped up naval patrols with more aircraft and drones. China has for years rejected NATO’s role in Asia — but any finding of Chinese involvement in damaging critical infrastructure belonging to NATO countries would be a “powerful” counterargument to that, a Baltic official said.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
NO DRY THREAT: The South China Sea disputes escalated over the weekend, with China firing water cannons and ramming the Philippines’ resupply vessels and a coast guard ship near Second Thomas Shoal, about 124 miles from the western Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 600 miles from China’s Hainan island. The Philippines’ President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. responded by directing his services to “conduct their missions with the utmost regard for the safety of our personnel, yet proceed with a mission-oriented mindset,” he said on X.
Watch here for the dramatic footage via WSJ.
STATE: "RECKLESS" CHINESE SHIPS HARASSING PHILIPPINES: The State Department accused Chinese Coast Guard vessels of "reckless maneuvers" Saturday and Sunday that threatened the safety of Philippine seamen sailing in the country's territorial waters in the South China Sea. Chinese Coast Guard units "employed water cannons and reckless maneuvers, including forcing a collision" against Philippine ships operating in Philippine waters near the Scarborough Shoal and the Second Thomas Shoal (also known as the Ayungin Shoal)," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on Sunday.
Chinese vessels involved in the Scarborough Shoal incident on Saturday also used "acoustic devices, incapacitating the Filipino crew members" Miller said, warning that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treat obligates the U.S. to respond to armed attacks on Philippine forces "anywhere in the South China Sea." That statement followed the U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson's post on the X social media platform on Saturday "vehemently condemning the PRC's repeated illegal and dangerous actions against Philippine vessels."
Beijing shot back by saying that "the U.S. out of selfish geopolitical calculations, has for some time been conniving at, emboldening and supporting the Philippines' infringement and provocation in the South China Sea," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Monday.
Background: The two shoals have become a flashpoint of increasingly aggressive activities by Chinese vessels in waters that a United Nations arbitration panel ruled in 2016 belong to the Philippines, not China. Beijing responded by warning that it "opposes and will never accept" that ruling and has significantly ramped up naval manoeuvres in the area over the past year.
EU ALSO CRITICIZES BEIJING: “The European Union is increasingly concerned by the provocative and dangerous behaviour of the Chinese Coast Guard and Maritime Militia against Philippine vessels in the South China Sea on 9 and 10 December,” an EU spokesperson said in a statement, decrying Beijing’s action as “unjustified” and “threatening.”
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
TREASURY SANCTIONS MORE CHINESE OFFICIALS: The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has placed two Chinese officials —including a central government representative —on a sanctions list for their links to human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Gao Qi, leader of the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau and Hu Lianhe, deputy office director for the CCP Central Committee's Xinjiang Work Coordination Small Group were complicit in "ongoing serious human rights abuse in Xinjiang," Treasury said in a statement published Friday. The sanctions "grossly interfere in China’s internal affairs … and seriously undermine China-U.S.relations," said Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.
GOP LAWMAKERS TARGET CHINESE STUDENT ASSOCIATIONS: A group of Republican lawmakers are urging the Biden administration to probe whether the dozens of Chinese Students and Scholars Associations on U.S. university and college campuses are flying under the radar as potential agents of Beijing. "There is clear evidence that CSSAs act as an arm of the PRC for the purpose of shaping U.S. policy and public opinion, and the United States should therefore evaluate whether they are required to register as foreign agents," 11 lawmakers including Senators Jim Risch (R-S.C.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.). said in a letter to the Department of Justice on Friday. That initiative reflects how "some people in the U.S. have been fabricating groundless pretexts to accuse Chinese students, scholars and researchers in the US with zero-sum game mindset and ill intentions to contain China," Liu, the spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement.
CHINA COMMITTEE DEMANDS FBI TIKTOK BRIEFING: The House Select Committee on China wants the FBI to brief them on the potential national security threat posed by Chinese ownership of the TikTok social media platform. Those Chinese ties creates the threat of American TikTok users "unwittingly compromising themselves to Chinese Communist Party surveillance and influence," the committee said in a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray released on Friday. "The U.S. government has so far provided no evidence that TikTok is spying on U.S. users or threatening U.S. national security, but has repeatedly treated the company under the presumption of guilt," said Liu at the Chinese embassy.
LAWMAKERS SEEK BLOCK ON CHINESE VAPES: Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.) want the Food and Drug Administration and Customs and Border Protection to team up to halt the illegal import of Chinese-produced vaping products. They constitute more than 50 percent of all such products on the U.S. market and are "contributing significantly to underage vaping rates," the two lawmakers said in a letter to the FDA released on Friday. "We do not accept the groundless accusations, let alone the behavior of shifting the blame by the US.," the Chinese embassy's Liu told China Watcher.
U.S. BARRED HK LEADER FROM APEC: The U.S. government has confirmed that it barred U.S.-sanctioned Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee from attending last month's APEC meeting in San Francisco. "We made clear to both China and Hong Kong authorities that he would not be welcome in San Francisco and … that we never intended for him to participate," President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday.
Lee's implementation of the National Security Law introduced in June 2020, which conflated peaceful protest with treason, prompted the U.S. Treasury Department to place him on a sanctions list. Campbell's statement contradicted the Hong Kong government's assertion last month that Lee "personally received the invitation from the United States to attend … due to scheduling issues, the Chief Executive would not be able to attend." The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
MORE HEADLINES
BBC: The young Chinese who stood up against Xi’s Covid rules.
The Diplomat: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy.
Financial Times: Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepens.
TIME: Whistleblower doctor Gao Yaojie, who exposed China's rural AIDS epidemic, dies at 95.
Reuters: Hong Kong ‘patriots only’ election falls flat with record low turnout.
MANY THANKS: To editor Christian Oliver and producer Lola Boom.
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