🪙 Bitcoin’s fun(d) week

…and layoff season is here

There's change at the exchange (Jonathan Raa/Getty Images)

Last Week's Market Moves
Dow Jones
37,593 (+0.34%)
S&P 500
4,784 (+1.84%)
Nasdaq
14,973 (+3.09%)
Bitcoin
$42,461 (-3.84%)
Dow Jones
37,593 (+0.34%)
S&P 500
4,784 (+1.84%)
Nasdaq
14,973 (+3.09%)
Bitcoin
$42,461 (-3.84%)

Hey Snackers,

The Peregrine lunar lander that blasted off last week was carrying a single bitcoin in a physical BTC wallet. After a fuel leak, the lander and its bitcoin cargo have been floating around space with "no chance" of making it to the moon. Ironic.

Banks kicked off Q4 earnings szn and stocks had a strong week, with the Nasdaq up 3%. The December jobs report came in surprisingly strong, and consumer inflation was hotter than forecast 🥵. Still, traders upped bets on March interest rate cuts after an unexpected dip in wholesale prices.

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ETFUN

Crypto faithfuls cheer bitcoin ETF approvals — and investing titans tussle for market share

Bitcoin's debutante ball… The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin exchange traded funds, which finally began trading last week after a decade-long push from the crypto industry (and a wild hack of the SEC's X account). The funds let investors get exposure to BTC's price without having to, you know, own crypto. It means less stressin' over hacks and lost keys. Also, since bitcoin ETFs can live at SIPC-insured registered broker-dealers, there's less potential loss if your exchange goes bankrupt (cough: FTX). As ETFs debuted on US stock exchanges, industry insiders predicted an influx of crypto-vestment.

  • More than a bit: $4.6B worth of bitcoin ETF shares changed hands on Thursday, with Grayscale's setting a record for the highest trading volume ever for an ETF's first day.

  • ShortPop: Bitcoin blipped past $49K on Thursday, a two-year high. But the SEC's approval had been anticipated, and BTC's price fell to $43K on Friday.

Don't want to market-share… The companies that had their BTC ETFs approved are a mix of legacy investment managers and crypto-focused players, and they've already started shoving elbows. BlackRock and Fidelity have slashed their ETF management fees to compete in what could be a winner-take-all business. Meanwhile, Bitwise, Ark Invest, and 21Shares — which also had spot bitcoin ETFs approved — are offering temporary promo fees of 0%. If crypto ETFs start getting included in retirement accounts, traditional finance heavyweights might want a bigger slice of crypto cake.

THE TAKEAWAY

Boring's good for business… but risks complacency. The SEC's approval suggests that finance's old guard is starting to embrace crypto as another cog in its machine, which might fuel more investment. It could be just the start, with traders already murmuring about a spot ethereum ETF. Still, seeking the approval of what many crypto heads derisively refer to as "TradFi" (traditional finance) is a far cry from crypto's rebellious roots that got so many excited in the first place.

Events

Coming up this week

Après-ski economics… World and biz leaders are meeting in the Swiss resort town of Davos this week — not to hit the slopes but to attend the 54th World Economic Forum. But what happens in Davos doesn't stay in Davos: decision-makers hobnobbing over Dom Pérignon can influence global policy. About 2.5K people show up, flying in on ~1K private jets. On this year's guest list: Argentina's new president, Milei, France's Macron, OpenAI CEO Altman, and Pfizer CEO Bourla. High on the agenda: AI, the climate crisis, and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

PAC it up…Yesterday's Iowa caucuses kickstarted voting in the GOP presidential primaries (FYI: Dems vote by mail, with results coming in March). Being up first, Iowa has outsized influence on the race, which is reflected in ad budgets: $110M+ has been spent carpeting Iowa with GOP commercials — that's 40% of total $$ spent on all GOP TV ads so far. Former Pres Trump is up in polls, while Nikki Haley's up in marketing: the ex-gov has spent a race-leading $50M+ on TV ads. Buckle up: this election's expected to be the costliest ever, with $10B+ in ad spend.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching

Layoff season… again. Job cuts tend to spike in January as corporate preps for the coming year. We hardly need more confirmation: in just the first two weeks of this year, companies including Amazon, Google, BlackRock, Citi, Discord, and NBC have cumulatively announced thousands of cuts. 38% of biz leaders said layoffs are likely at their companies this year, one survey said. "Recession concerns" are oft-cited. Newer thing: Google, Meta, and Dropbox have pointed to AI as a factor in their layoffs. Duolingo cut 10% of its staff as it uses ChatGPT to create language-learning content.

Droppin' digi-coins… for your fave TikTok streamer ("ice cream so good"). Social apps are earning big bucks as mobile-game spending cools. Last year, TikTok and Disney+ helped fuel an 11% jump in global in-app sales, which hit a record $64B. But gaming slipped as users spent less on extra lives and avatar fits. While ads make up the bulk of mobile sales, people are splurging more on digital goodies like creator tips and Hinge roses. Consumer spending on in-app purchases in social apps is expected to hit a record $1.3B this year.

What else we're Snackin'
  • Lottabots: OpenAI's new GPT Store lets paid subscribers use 3M+ customized versions of ChatGPT for things like book recs and houseplant help. OpenAI's been doubling down on monetization to offset big computing costs.

  • Chill: The Stanley cup, TikTok's fave tumbler, helped its 100-year-old+ parent co earn $750M in sales last year (shoutout: #watertok). Stanley stans say the pricey bottles keep drinks cold for hours (and survive car fires?).

  • OnHold: The IRS is struggling to fight identity theft and process returns, but it answered just 29% of calls in fiscal 2023, an agency watchdog said. An $80B investment to modernize the tax agency could be scaled back.

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Snack Fact Of the Day

Just 43% of boomers have enough saved for retirement

This Week
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Goldman Sachs, Interactive Brokers, Morgan Stanley, and PNC

  • Wednesday: Retail sales. Earnings expected from Alcoa, Charles Schwab, Discover Financial, and US Bank

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims and housing starts. Earnings expected from Birkenstock, J.B. Hunt, KeyBank, and Taiwan Semiconductor

  • Friday: Consumer sentiment and existing-home sales. Earnings expected from Ally Financial, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington Bank, and State Street

Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and ethereum and shares of: Alphabet, Amazon, Comcast, and Disney

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... See more

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