We're onto New Hampshire

Jan 16, 2024

By Lisa Kashinsky, Kelly Garrity and Mia McCarthy

PROGRAMMING NOTE: The nation’s political axis is shifting to New Hampshire for the next eight days — and we’re shifting with it. Lisa's heading to our neighbor to the north, and Mia McCarthy is joining Kelly in helming Playbook.

So with that: Send your Massachusetts tips and scoops to mmccarthy@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com and send your New Hampshire tidbits to lkashinsky@politico.com.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at his caucus night victory event.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to a roomful of people with his family and other political leaders by his side on stage at his caucus night victory event at HyVee Hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

PRIMARY SPRINT — There were three tickets out of Iowa Monday night. Only one looks like it’s not in steerage.

Donald Trump pulled off a commanding victory in the caucuses — and told his rivals it was time to get out. One of them listened: Vivek Ramaswamy ended his campaign and endorsed Trump. He’ll appear with the former president this evening in New Hampshire.

But Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who finished a distant second and third, respectively, are carrying on. And their campaigns both argued Monday night that the caucus results made this a two-person race — and not against each other.

That was the spin room. Here are the real takeaways:

WHAT HAPPENS IN IOWA STAYS IN IOWA — Let’s get this one out of the way: Iowa’s results will ripple into New Hampshire. But there’s a limit to their impact.

Past Iowa caucus winners don’t have a great track record in New Hampshire or in earning the GOP presidential nomination. Recall how Iowans picked former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012 and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, and none of them went on to secure the nomination. New Hampshire, meanwhile, picked Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

“Iowa has never had much of an influence on a New Hampshire primary campaign,” veteran GOP strategist Mike Dennehy, who worked on McCain’s campaigns, told Playbook. “Ted Cruz won Iowa, and he bombed in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum won in Iowa and bombed in New Hampshire.”

TRUMP TRAIN — Trump will return to New Hampshire this evening — on the heels of a New York court appearance — riding high: He won all but one of Iowa’s 99 counties, based on unofficial tallies, and will likely pick up Ramaswamy’s supporters in the Granite State.

Dennehy says those extra voters "will likely seal the deal for him.” But Matthew Bartlett, another GOP strategist, argues that Trump is still “on definitely shakier footing” in the first primary state, where polling averages show him under the 50-percent support he surpassed in Iowa.

HALEY AIMS HIGH — Haley has been waiting for the race to turn to New Hampshire, where she’s long been ascendant and where she has the backing of the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu. She didn’t have a stellar night in Iowa — Sununu predicted at the beginning of this month that she’d finish a “strong second." (He later tempered that.) But her supporters are spinning it as a solid performance given that she’s put more effort into New Hampshire.

Dennehy’s advice, which we wouldn’t be surprised if Haley takes: “Just forget that [Iowa] even happened and just keep doing what she's doing.” That starts today with a string of media hits and a North Country rally with Sununu.

DESANTIS DESPOILER — A year ago, DeSantis beat Trump in a New Hampshire poll. Now, he’s poised to play spoiler in the state where support for his campaign has tumbled into the single digits in surveys.

THE VIEW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE — A muted Democratic primary contest is also kicking into higher gear — just without President Joe Biden, whose allies are waging a write-in campaign on his behalf (and calling in the Massachusetts cavalry to help). Those behind the write-in effort are using Trump’s victory to encourage independents who want to block him from returning to the White House to scribble down Biden’s name instead of pulling a GOP ballot. Biden’s long-shot rivals, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and Marianne Williamson, would disagree.

THE MASSACHUSETTS CONNECTION — Pack your bags, it’s time to go knock doors in New Hampshire. At least that’s the plan for Haley supporters in Massachusetts, former MassGOP Chair Jennifer Nassour, who co-chairs Massachusetts Women for Nikki, told Playbook. Those who can’t make it will be working the phones, she said.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Lest you think all the action is to the north, Gov. Maura Healey’s State of the Commonwealth address is Wednesday.

TODAY — Healey, Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark make a “major new child care affordability announcement” at 10 a.m. in Malden. Healey and Driscoll swear in Elizabeth Dewar to the SJC at noon at the State House. Clark addresses The New England Council at 9 a.m. at the Park Plaza. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at 11 a.m.

JOIN 1/31 FOR A TALK ON THE RACE TO SOLVE ALZHEIMER’S: Breakthrough drugs and treatments are giving new hope for slowing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s disease and ALS. But if that progress slows, the societal and economic cost to the U.S. could be high. Join POLITICO, alongside lawmakers, official and experts, on Jan. 31 to discuss a path forward for better collaboration among health systems, industry and government. REGISTER HERE.

MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

TRAIL MARKERS — Nikki Haley flew to New Hampshire last night. Ron DeSantis is making a pit stop in Haley's home of South Carolina. And now-former candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is rallying with Donald Trump. Here's where to find the GOP candidates in New Hampshire today:

— Trump rallies at the Atkinson Country Club at 5 p.m. with Ramaswamy.

— DeSantis is due at a meet-and-greet at the Claremont Senior Center at 5:30 p.m., hosted by his allied super PAC, Never Back Down, and is slated for a CNN town hall at 9 p.m.

— Haley holds a rally at 6 p.m. at the Omni Mount Washington Resort with Gov. Chris Sununu.

Republican presidential candidate former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley arrives for a caucus night watch party in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley arrives for a caucus night watch party in West Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) | AP

Don't forget the Democrats:

— Rep. Dean Phillips is pouring coffee at the Littleton Diner at 12:30 p.m. and returns for a meet-and-greet there at 4 p.m. He’s also at a Plymouth Democrats meeting at 6:30 p.m.

— Marianne Williamson is at the Dover Public Library at 3:30 p.m.

Phillips spent the weekend ramping up his attacks on President Joe Biden for skipping the state’s primary, which he and Williamson are competing in even though the Democratic National Committee won’t count the results.

Phillips also lowered expectations in the state in which he’s staking his campaign, telling Lisa that finishing in the 20 percent range would be a show of strength. A campaign adviser previously told POLITICO the bar was set around 42 percent.

Dean Phillips speaks at a campaign stop in New Hampshire.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) campaigns in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, 10 days before the state's presidential primary. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

ICYMI — Phillips’ ire for the Biden-backing Democratic establishment also extends to Gov. Maura Healey, who’s campaigned on behalf of the Biden write-in effort.

“It is the sad culture of politics," Phillips said when asked last week about Healey's efforts. "When you have people whose focus is self-preservation and ascension to higher offices, they will stay in line … they will do anything necessary, forgo all their principles, even when they know they’re wrong.” A spokesperson for Healey's political arm declined comment.

BALLOT BATTLES

PRE-HEARING HEARING — The Massachusetts Ballot Law Commission will meet Thursday to discuss whether to hear two challenges seeking to bar Trump from the GOP presidential primary ballot. Marc Salinas is the attorney representing Trump. The Boston Globe’s Matt Stout has more.

— “Baker makes his exit from Mass. politics official,” by Bruce Mohl, Gintautas Dumcius and Jennifer Smith, CommonWealth Beacon: “Charlie Baker’s exit from Massachusetts politics is now complete. According to campaign finance records, his gubernatorial campaign account was dissolved on January 4 and so was the super PAC that he helped launch in 2019 to support largely centrist candidates across Massachusetts.”

DATELINE BEACON HILL

— “Proposal targets 'deep fake' political advertising,” by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: “A proposal filed by state Sen. Barry Finegold, D-Andover, would prohibit anyone running for elected office from distributing deceptive or fraudulent 'synthetic' ads within 90 days of an election in which the candidate or their political party will appear on state or local ballots.”

YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.

MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS

— “Migrants want to work. And employers want to hire them,” by Katie Johnston, The Boston Globe: “Migrants living in at-capacity emergency shelters are trickling into the workforce: packaging cooking oil in Ayer; caring for patients with developmental disabilities in Waltham; gearing up to clean hospital rooms in Salem. But getting to that point has required a massive undertaking.”

FROM THE HUB

WU SAYS NO TO HARVARD — Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has “absolutely no plans” to throw her hat in the ring for the top job at her alma mater after Claudine Gay’s abrupt departure from Harvard’s helm. Wu told WCVB’s “On the Record” that she’s “very saddened” to see the “quick and rapid series of missteps that [Gay] took accountability for that got wrapped into a much larger conversation about issues that were beyond what she could control.”

NOT A SILVER BULLET — Wu told WCVB that she’ll continue to advocate for legislation that would allow for rent control to move forward on Beacon Hill, where it’s long been stalled and shows no signs of budging. But she also said “rent control isn’t a silver bullet — it doesn’t fix the housing crisis. But it does play a really important role in helping people just hang onto their homes” while the city and state work to increase the number of affordable and public-housing units available.

— “Annual MLK breakfast rings with warnings about threats to democracy,” by Barbara Moran, WBUR: “Amid the music, accolades and awards, many speakers commented on ongoing cultural divisions and threats to voting rights as the presidential primaries are set to begin. ‘As we stare down this presidential election year, all signs are that it will take every ounce of our stamina to move forward and not backward,’ Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said.”

Rep. Ayanna Pressley also drew on King’s commitment to peace in joining nearly 100 faith leaders in signing a statement calling for a cease-fire in Gaza.

And Healey announced new efforts to increase diversity in the state’s contracts by reopening an unspecified number of contracts and swearing in the state’s first Diverse and Small Business Advisory Board for the Supplier Diversity Office.

DATELINE D.C.

— “John Kerry Bows Out as U.S. Climate Envoy,” by Lisa Friedman, The New York Times: “John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy for climate, plans to step down by spring, ending a three-year run in a major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and which will face an uncertain future with his departure. … He is widely expected to get involved in the 2024 presidential campaign to help raise awareness of Mr. Biden’s work on climate change.”

WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD BE READING

— “How Harvard Crimson journalists delivered ‘indispensable’ coverage of the university’s leadership crisis,” by Suevon Lee, WBUR.

— “Grubhub agrees to a $3.5 million settlement with Massachusetts for fees charged during the pandemic,” by Steve LeBlanc, The Associated Press.

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Shane Cardillo of Hamilton Lane.

HAPPY BELATED — to David O’Brien, who celebrated Saturday; and to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, who turned 39 on Sunday. We apologize for missing it again, after promising last year that we wouldn’t.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Follow us on Twitter