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By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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WELCOME TO CHINA WATCHER. This is Stuart Lau reporting from Taipei. The presidential election here is over, the winner’s declared, and no loser tried to hang on like a big baby. Phelim Kine will be with you on Thursday.
TAIWAN ELECTION ANALYSIS
DEMOCRACY IN ACTION: Taiwan has chosen a new president amid escalating Chinese pressure. William Lai, of the China-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party, won 40 percent of the vote in a three-way race. Eager to tone down the impression he’s (still) an advocate for Taiwanese independence, Lai extended an olive branch to Beijing in his acceptance speech on Saturday, saying he’d support dialogue and cooperation. Beijing, for now, is focusing on rhetorical threats and diplomatic pressure, and the missiles are staying where they are.
U.S President Joe Biden’s first reaction was an unambiguous rejection of Taiwanese sovereignty. “We do not support independence,” he said, when asked to comment on the election result.
XI’S MESSAGE: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for stronger “united front” efforts to win Taiwanese hearts, referring to the Communist strategy of using soft — sometimes financial — power to buy non-believers’ goodwill. In an article published Monday on Qiushi, a Communist Party magazine on its ideologies, Xi said: “The patriotic, unifying forces in Taiwan should be developed and empowered. Separatist acts for Taiwan independence should be rejected. The full reunification of the motherland should move forward.”
That message from Xi is one intended for the 60 percent of voters who didn’t support Lai, whom Beijing labels a staunch separatist and “troublemaker.”
DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE OVER PACIFIC: Less than 48 hours after Lai declared victory, China struck back, poaching the Pacific island nation of Nauru away from Taiwan. Nauru’s President David Adeang announced that the country would no longer recognize Taiwan as a nation in its own right, "but rather as an inalienable part of China's territory, and will sever 'diplomatic relations' with Taiwan as of this day." China immediately hailed his “right decision,” while Taiwan revealed Beijing’s efforts to court Nauru with offers of aid.
Down to a dozen: Only 12 countries now recognize the Republic of China, the official name of Taiwan, instead of its Communist neighbor. Taiwanese netizens say they would feel the biggest shock if the Vatican were to turn to Beijing one day.
‘Dead end’: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi called it “a dead-end road” for Taiwan to pursue independence, adding that the election result wouldn’t change the “basic fact” that Taiwan is part of China.
US DELEGATION IN TAIWAN: A delegation of former senior administration officials tasked by the State Department "to travel in their private capacity to Taiwan" is meeting with the island's post-election incoming senior officials. Landing in Taipei just a day after the election, former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg met with Lai, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, leaders of the Kuomintang opposition, and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je, who’s set to be a kingmaker in the race for the parliament speakership.
According to Laura Rosenberger, chairperson of the American Institute in Taiwan, the delegation stressed that the U.S. intends to work with all parties in Taiwan, adding there would be more meetings with senior Taiwanese officials on stronger cooperation, including in beefing up Taiwan’s self-defense. There’ll also be continued cooperation in trade and technology, Rosenberger added.
The concern — a parliament run by Lai’s rivals: Rosenberger’s remarks come as diplomats in Taipei are waiting to see how an opposition-led parliament could delay the DPP government’s policies, especially on defense. The Kuomintang, which stresses engagement with China, had a track record of criticizing military procurement on the grounds of corruption allegations.
But according to Fang-yu Chen, an assistant professor of political science at Soochow University, Lai’s foreign policy and defense approach in general is likely to be uncontroversial in the eyes of the two opposition parties. “After all, Tsai’s foreign policy has won wide support, and everyone is generally on board,” Chen said. “With Xi set to go for another term in 2027, his potential moves on Taiwan could even be used by Lai as a reason to mobilize domestic support on defense.”
EUROPE’S LOST IN WORDS: Yielding to Chinese pressure, EU countries have refused to refer to the election as a presidential one — or even to name Lai — in their congratulatory messages, contrary to Washington, London, Tokyo, Canberra, Singapore and Manila.
From Paris to Berlin to Brussels: France congratulated “those elected” this weekend, calling for the “resumption of dialogue and cooperation” between Taipei and Beijing. The German foreign office had a similar message: “We congratulate all voters, the candidates who took part in these elections and those elected.” The European External Action Service’s statement is the most timid of all, congratulating only the voters — and left out the candidates.
NEXT, INAUGURATION: Lai’s set to be inaugurated on May 20, and the Taiwanese foreign ministry is drawing up the guest list. When Tsai won her first term in 2016, then-former prime ministers from the Netherlands and Slovakia, Dries van Agt and Iveta Radičová, attended, alongside a group of sitting lawmakers across the continent.
Some say it’s now time for a higher-level presence. “The EU’s Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis should go — and that would be completely in line with the EU’s one China policy,” said Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.
Who will be the next Europe hand? “One thing to watch is whether a Europeanist is brought into the next Taiwan government at a high level,” said Ross Feingold, a political risk analyst in Taipei. “President-elect Lai is familiar with Japan, and Vice President-elect [Bi-khim] Hsiao is familiar with the United States. One name floated for Premier is former Culture Minister Cheng Li-chun, who studied in France and speaks French fluently.”
FURTHER READING:
— WAR OVER TAIWAN STRAIT: I talked to Taiwan’s former top commander Lee Hsi-ming, and here’s why he’s disappointed with the Taiwanese military’s current state.
— CHIP WAR: And here’s a piece from yours truly with Pieter Haeck on what the election means for the semiconductor industry — where 90 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips come from Taiwan.
— WAR OF INFORMATION: Taiwan has also been battered by China’s war of disinformation for years. This election marks a climax. Here’s my story.
LONDON SCANDAL
LIZ TRUSS LOBBIES FOR DEFENSE SALE TO CHINA : Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, who repeatedly called on the West to beef up Taiwan’s defense, secretly lobbied the British government to "expedite" the sale of military equipment to China, documents released to POLITICO show. Graham Lanktree has this scoop for us this morning…
Gen. Hawks vs. Private Doves: In a private letter dated August 2023, Truss — who casts herself as the most high-profile China hawk on the Tory backbenches — asked Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch to intervene on behalf of a British defense manufacturer hoping to sell military equipment to China.
"Dear Kemi," begins the letter from Truss, "I am writing on behalf of my constituent, whose application for a licence to supply goods to China was first submitted 03/01/2023 … I would be grateful can you [sic] expedite [the] licence."
Taiwan tangle: U.K. security officials had blocked Richmond Defence Systems — a defense firm based in Truss' Norfolk constituency — from exporting landmine disposal equipment to the People's Republic of China. Experts say the equipment could be used by Beijing in an invasion of Taiwan. "It would be naïve for any U.K. government official not to consider the risk that the equipment which ends up in China then ends up being used in an invasion scenario over Taiwan,” said Andrew Yeh, executive director of the China Strategic Risks Institute.
Read Graham’s full story here.
DEFENSE CHIEF SEES CHINA RISKS IN FIVE YEARS: “As Russia continues its illegal campaign in Ukraine, China is assessing whether the West loses its patience. Today, Russia and China have been joined by new nuclear, and soon to be nuclear, powers,” British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in a speech on Monday. “The era of the peace dividend is over. In five years' time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.”
DAVOS DIVIDE
U.S. SCRAMBLES OVER CHINA'S SWISS ONSLAUGHT: U.S. diplomats are panicking about the size and intent of a Chinese delegation in Switzerland this week and are trying to arrange a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken with a Swiss official while he's in the country for the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Influence battle: Beijing "will have 10 state ministers in attendance," according to a State Department document dated January 12 and obtained by Nahal, noting that China's No. 2 Li Qiang was to meet Swiss leaders. "Amb. Miller characterized it as a 'pseudo state visit,'" the document states. (That's apparently a reference to Scott Miller, the U.S. ambassador to Switzerland.)
Charm offensive: As a result, the U.S. State Department is trying to snag a meeting between Secretary Blinken and Switzerland's President Viola Amherd, to ensure Washington doesn't lose ground to Beijing when it comes to the notoriously neutral Swiss.
At least a handshake, please: "Amb Miller believes it would be bad optics if S doesn't at least have a handshake with new Pres of Swiss Confederation, Viola Amherd, who has made herself completely available for a meeting." (S is a reference to the secretary of state.)
Here’s the full story from Nahal Toosi. Sign up to Global Playbook so you won’t miss any of our updates from Davos.
EU-CHINA
BELGIUM TO RESET CHINA TIES: After Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo met Xi in Beijing last week, there’s some movement. China lifted a five-year ban against Belgian pork, five years after an outbreak of African swine flu slashed the sector's access to the crucial Asian market. "This is very good news for our Belgian pig farmers," Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib told reporters in Beijing. She went as far as proclaiming a “reset” in Belgium’s relations with China, following her meeting with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. “We count on China … to foster security and stability,” Lahbib said.
Mutual feeling: As he addressed an audience of CEOs, diplomats and reporters who attended the inauguration of Belgium's embassy building in Beijing on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang had one message to the EU: Let's change the way we do things.
"In the Chinese culture, a new home opens up new prospects, marks a new beginning and sets one on a new journey," Wang said, referring to the new premises. "These are exactly our expectations for China-Belgium and China-Europe relations."
EU hat on: De Croo stressed the importance of China as his first visit as leader of the country presiding over the Council of the EU. "The priorities for the EU is to increase its strategic autonomy. This means increasing our energy security … diversifying our access to raw materials [and] building our military capabilities," he said. Beijing loves any expression of strategic autonomy, which they see as Europe’s lessening dependency on the U.S.
Xi resorts to metaphors: “Facing the turbulent international situation, more ‘bridges’ need to be built between China and Europe,” Xi told De Croo. Here’s the full story from Camille Gijs, reporting in Beijing.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
U.S., CHINA CLIMATE ENVOYS STEPPING DOWN: U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, are both stepping down from those roles. "Mr. Xie has retired from the post of China's climate envoy," China's ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, said in a post on X on Friday. Liu Zhenmin, former United Nations' Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs is China's new climate envoy. Xie paired that news with confirmation that a "China-U.S. climate action working group" had its first meeting on Friday. Kerry will resign from his post in the spring, per the New York Times on Saturday. His office didn't respond to a request for comment.
Those personnel changes raise questions about the future of U.S.-China climate cooperation. Kerry and Xie Zhenhua's personal friendship helped to maintain a degree of civility in U.S.-China climate talks that endured despite the rancor that has beset bilateral ties in recent years. Those days may be over. "At this stage of the U.S.-China climate relationship, the structural factors will play a larger role than the personal," Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute's China Climate Hub, said. The days of splashy Kerry-Xie joint announcements on bilateral climate progress are likely a thing of the past. "If climate change generates news on the U.S.-China front in 2024 it is more likely bad news than good," Li said.
BLINKEN ASKS BEIJING TO RELEASE JAILED AMERICANS: Secretary of State Antony Blinken pushed a visiting senior Chinese government official on Friday to release the three U.S. citizens behind bars in China that the State Department has declared are victims of arbitrary detention. In his meeting with Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Department, Blinken "emphasized the importance of resolving the cases of American citizens who are wrongfully detained or subject to exit bans in China," said a State Department statement.
Stuck in China: The State Department's office of the special presidential envoy on hostage affairs has designated U.S. citizens David Lin, Kai Li and Mark Swidan as "wrongful detainees" and urged their release for years. Beijing has consistently refused to do so. Data compiled by the nonprofit prisoner advocacy organization Dui Hua Foundation suggests that there are at least 30 to 40 U.S. citizens — 90 percent of whom are business executives or their relatives — stuck in China under exit bans that offer no appeal process.
TREASURY SANCTIONS HOUTHI-LINKED HONG KONG FIRM: The Treasury Department has placed Hong Kong-based shipping firm Cielo Maritime on a sanctions list for its links to Yemen's Houthi militant group "financial facilitator" Sa'id al-Jamal. One of the company's vessels "has shipped Iranian commodities to China in support of Sa'id al-Jamal," Treasury said in a statement on Friday. That follows a series of U.S. military strikes last week on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the group's ongoing drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office didn't respond to a request for comment.
MORE HEADLINES
BLOOMBERG: China unveils plan for massive 'silver economy' to serve elderly.
ECONOMIST: South-East Asia learns how to deal with China.
REUTERS: Houthi attacks expose China’s commercial stakes in Red Sea.
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Deflation worries deepen in China.
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST: Xi urges loyalty from China's courts and law enforcers.
MANY THANKS: To editor Christian Oliver, reporters Graham Lanktree, Camille Gijs, Nahal Toosi, and producer Seb Starcevic.
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