Trump gatecrashes the Davos party

Jan 16, 2024

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GREETINGS FROM THE ALPS! This is Suzanne Lynch reporting from Davos, where the World Economic Forum is well and truly underway with a packed agenda. Today’s top headliners: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Chinese Premier Li Qiang are both delivering speeches at the Congress Center (full agenda below).

IT’S NOT WEF WITHOUT WILL.I.AM: Meanwhile, the partying kicked off in earnest Monday night. The hot tickets: TIME’s reception and POLITICO’s night-cap at Goals House (not that we’re biased), where big names including recording artists will.i.am and Wyclef Jean, footballer Jérôme Boateng and wrap-dress icon Diane von Fürstenberg brought a bit of celeb glamor to proceedings.

BUT FIRST: There’s only one thing anyone will be talking about today …

TRUMP’S RETURN

THE RESULTS ARE IN: Donald Trump was almost immediately declared the winner of the Republican caucuses in Iowa overnight, further securing the former U.S. president’s path toward the Republican presidential nomination and cementing his grip on the party. Trump resoundly beat his two closest rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

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It’s happening: After months of speculation about whether Trump could really return to the White House, things just got real. The former U.S. president is now the runaway favorite to become the Republican nominee, setting up a Biden vs. Trump rematch in November.

The ghost of Davos: While Trump isn’t here in person, his ghost is stalking the WEF halls and back rooms, as I break down in this piece, with colleague Zach Warmbrodt. Last week, ECB chief Christine Lagarde (who is in Davos) said publicly what most people are thinking privately, warning that a second Trump presidency would be a “threat.” And as my colleague Nahal Toosi writes in her latest column, foreign diplomats are only too happy to unload on what they really think of Trump.

Business as usual: Still, Trump has plenty of current and former acolytes at Davos this week — his son-in-law Jared Kushner, former National Economic Council chief Gary Cohn and former comms chief Anthony Scaramucci. That’s not counting the Trump-leaning Gulf countries which have a presence here. And, as we report, corporate America is already making peace with a second Trump presidency.

Reassurance game: While heavy-hitters U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are due in town today, there’s an unusually small delegation from the U.S. Congress. Those who are coming to Davos will get tough questions in bilateral meetings — not just on Ukraine, as the U.S. struggles to greenlight more aid, but also on the crisis in the Middle East.

Tough crowd: “I expect those meetings to be sharper, more difficult, more angry this time, because Israel-Gaza is seen so profoundly differently,” Senator Chris Coons, a close Biden ally, told my colleague Alex Ward on the WEF sidelines. “If you’re in South Africa, if you’re India, if you’re Saudi, you have a very different sense of what we’re doing and how long it’s gonna go on and why and where.”

Message to Bibi: Coons also told Alex he’s open to conditioning future military aid to Israel over the conduct of its war against Hamas in Gaza.

NOW HEAR THIS: For more on how Trump’s run for the White House is playing at WEF, check out our daily Power Play podcast with Anne McElvoy and the POLITICO team on the ground.

BACK TO UKRAINE — FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Zach Warmbrodt has this scoop: Bank of America chief Brian Moynihan will meet with President Zelenskyy this week in Davos, as the Ukrainian leader tries to shore up support for his war-struck country.

Get it going: Moynihan told POLITICO that BofA is providing advice to Ukraine related to capital markets. “We didn’t have a lot of operations in the country but you’re trying to give them the benefit of your advice about how to think about it,” he said. “It’s a pretty good-sized economy. You’ve gotta get it going again.”

Kyiv on their mind: BofA President of International Bernard Mensah was in Kyiv last Friday as part of a small delegation with Penny Pritzker, Biden’s point-person for Ukraine’s economic recovery. Pics here.

AI FRENZY

MOVE OVER CRYPTO: Last year, Playbook witnessed the bewildered faces of many a WEF delegate as they basked in the wonders of ChatGPT. Now, artificial intelligence is dominating discussion in and around Davos — displacing crypto as the hottest topic.

On the bandwagon: Everyone who is anyone is hosting an AI-related event this year at Davos. (Obvs POLITICO’s Great AI Debate, moderated by yours truly today, is one you don’t want to miss.) There’s even a special AI House on the promenade, which can be rented out for AI-related affairs.

Coming for your jobs: Full marks to Penta Group for holding what is arguably the most relevant discussion at Davos: How AI will disrupt the roles of the C-suite executives who are attending the World Economic Forum. It’s on Wednesday at 4 p.m. at Promenade 74.

By the numbers: Forty percent of workers globally have jobs that will be affected by AI, according to a study by the International Monetary Fund. Write-up here.

ASSESSING THE IMPACT: The dangers posed by generative artificial intelligence was one of the top takeaways of this year’s WEF Global Risks Report. But a broad gamut of views on AI is present at Davos, from hungry start-up tech businesses, to cautious regulators, to nervous corporates worried about the impact on the world of work. Playbook chatted to a few Davos attendees about what the next big challenge/opportunity of the tech will be.

— Christy Hoffman, general secretary of the UNI Global Union: “We’re not standing in the way of generative AI,” says Hoffman, one of the leaders of the labor movement. “For some occupations it’s more threatening than others, but it can also make jobs easier, particularly when it comes to less desirable tasks. The question is who benefits. We need to make sure that this technology benefits more than the owners of companies.”

— Marietje Schaake, now with the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center, previously a member of the European Parliament: “2023 saw governments around the world taking quick steps to put up guardrails around AI. 2024 will have to see initiatives vital for public interest like transparency become meaningful,” she argues. Schaake says public institutions need to ditch the corporate readouts and engage in their own risk assessments. “Democratic governments must ensure enforcement mechanisms change corporate behavior where needed.”

— Věra Jourová, vice president of the European Commission: “The EU reached a milestone in 2023 with the AI Act. We’re now preparing for its implementation, including the establishment of an AI office.” But she also warns of the risks ahead for democracy. “Later this year we have elections to the European Parliament — we need to minimize the risks that voters are manipulated with AI content, such as deep fakes. AI companies have to act immediately to think about impact on elections and address these risks.”

— Maria Groß, managing director of GERMANTECH, which encourages digitally driven products and scaling start-ups: A key differentiator and success factor for companies going forward “will be how much they embrace this disruptive technology,” she says. Aligning top-down strategy and policies with bottom-up ways to use AI along the value chain will be “what sets resilient and non-resilient companies apart.”

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AROUND TOWN

FORECAST: Low of -11C/12F, high of -5C/23F.

Snow day? A logistics problem facing handlers this morning: Will some of the A-listers who were due to arrive by helicopter be forced to take a car instead? Perish the thought!

Nice touch: The much-loved Davos buggies that transport delegates and journalists between the media zone and the Congress Center have a new feature this year: stylish plastic curtains to keep the wind and snow at bay.

COMPUTER SAYS NO: Long lines formed outside the Belvedere Hotel Monday afternoon as the badge processing system broke down, leaving Davos attendees, including IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn, making small talk as they waited (patiently) in the cold.

A CUT ABOVE: White badges have all the fun. If you’re one of the chosen ones, check out the dainty smoked salmon and cheese displays and cutesy sandwiches on the third floor of the Strategic Partners Lounge of the Congress Center.

OVERHEARD 1: TIME CEO Jessica Sibley apologizing for her hoarse voice at the mag’s kick-off reception last night. We sympathize!

OVERHEARD 2: “I actually need to drink hard liquor to function,” said one tipple-lover at the Migros restaurant, as delegates pondered one of the great philosophical questions of Davos: Can you survive this week without alcohol (or with it)?

EURO-NETWORKING: Chinese Premier Li Qiang is making the most of his trip to Europe, flying to Dublin this evening. In Ireland, he’ll get the full VIP treatment, with meetings scheduled with Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and President Michael D. Higgins.

AGENDA

FULL PROGRAM.

Congress Center headliners (livestream)

— 10.50 a.m. Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

— 11.20 a.m. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

— 2.15 p.m. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

— 5 p.m. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

What else we’re watching

— 7 a.m. McKinsey CEO breakfast, AMERON Hotel.

— 1 p.m. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, U.S. Senator Chris Coons and the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Germany Annalena Baerbock, Finland Elina Valtonen and Nigeria Yusuf Tuggar discuss “securing an insecure world.” Center for Regions, Trade and Geopolitics.

— 4.15 p.m. Panel on treating soil as a precious resource. Speakers include U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.N. World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain. Moderated by POLITICO’s founding editor John Harris. Center for Nature and Climate.

— 4.15 p.m. “Afternoon Tea & Conversations” with speakers including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Salesforce chief Marc Benioff. Bloomberg House.

— 5 p.m. Bearing witness to the October 7th massacre invitation-only event, featuring Eyal Waldman, the co-founder of Mellanox, whose 24-year-old daughter Danielle was killed in the Hamas attack at the Supernova dance festival, followed by a screening of footage from October 7. Walking distance to the Congress Center, but location undisclosed for security reasons.

— 5.15 p.m. Panel on the humanitarian system under pressure. Speakers include U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, CEO of International Rescue Committee David Miliband, UNICEF’s Kitty van der Heijden. Kurpark Village.

— Ukraine House highlights: 10.30 a.m. Ukraine’s strategic importance: From rare earth minerals to EU’s green energy partner … 3 p.m. Women at war: Redefining strength and resilience … 8.30 p.m. Invitation-only networking reception.

SPOTTED

— Anthony Scaramucci meeting with Prosek Partners founder Jennifer Prosek and others at the Hilton Garden Inn.

— U.S. Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and reps Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Juan Vargas (D-Calif.), Darin LaHood (R-Ill and Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) in the Public Figures lounge sipping lattes and discussing the day ahead. LaHood kindly passed Vargas some milk.

— At POLITICO’s opening night nap-cap at Goals House: Musician Wyclef Jean, fashionistas Diane von Fürstenberg and Daniella Helayel, footballer Jérôme Boateng, former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, Freuds’ Matthew Freud, Arlo Brady and Hannah Pawlby, Penta’s Andy Whitehouse and Conall McDevitt, POLITICO’s John Harris and Goli Sheikholeslami, WorldQuant’s Igor Tulchinsky, Jack Hidary of SandboxAQ, Togolese Minister of Digital Economy and Transformation Cina Lawson.

— At S&P Global Sustainable1 Look Ahead Reception on the promenade: President of S&P Global Ratings Martina Cheung, EY sustainability boss Amy Brachio, Amini founder and CEO Kate Kallot, TES CEO Marco Alverá, Andrew Kalish of Handshake.

— At TIME’s kick-off reception at the AlpenGold Hotel last night: will.i.am, Salesforce CEO (and TIME mag owner) Marc Benioff, Brett Loubert of Deloitte, João Rocha, Andrew Baird, Patrick Thomson, Laura Poppick, Brad Olsen.

— At the With Honor reception at the FileCoin Foundation last night: Former U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, Senator Chris Coons, U.S. reps Darrell Issa, Juan Vargas, Darin LaHood, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, Ukrainian MP Sasha Ustinova.

— At Project Everyone Dinner at Goals House: Wyclef Jean, Diane von Fürstenberg, Member of European Parliament Eva Maydell, Jasmine Greene, Google’s Stuart McLaughlin.

— KPMG chair and CEO Paul Knopp at — where else? — the KPMG lounge at the Belvedere Hotel. Also there: James Taylor, external affairs guru with Rio Tinto mining group.

— Tickling the ivories at the Piano Bar: Barry Colson, of course, who’s been entertaining the execs in Davos for three decades — here’s a flashback from 14 (!) years ago.

THANKS TO: Paul de Villepin, Nahal Toosi, Jamil Anderlini, Alex Ward, Zach Warmbrodt, and Cristina Gonzalez.

Global Playbook could not happen without Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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Before you can use AI to help get where you’re going, you need to trust what it’s doing. IBM’s watsonx.governance platform helps organizations manage their AI responsibly at enterprise scale and prepare for AI regulations coming worldwide.

Watsonx.governance lets IBM clients manage their AI models over their entire lifecycle. This end-to-end, automated governance solution helps mitigate AI risks and improves compliance so businesses can utilize responsible AI to its full potential.

See how it works at ibm.com/governance.