A PBO jam sandwich

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May 31, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan

Presented by MOWI

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ The fallout from the PBO’s flub this week.

DONALD TRUMP will campaign with the dubious distinction of being a convicted felon.

→ Who’s up, who’s down.

DRIVING THE DAY

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux adjusts his translation aid before a Senate committee.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux adjusts his translation aid before appearing at a Senate committee. | Adrian Wyld, The Canadian Press

WATCHDOG UNDER FIRE, STILL — The timing almost couldn’t have been worse for YVES GIROUX.

Parliament’s independent spending watchdog posted a major error notice, quietly … on April 17 — a day after the federal budget came out.

The chattering class only thundered to life about it this week — right in the middle of silly season, the lead-up to the summer break that inevitably escalates into partisan games, where everyone’s riled up and ready to sound off with fierce takes.

The notice revealed that the PBO’s key study about the hottest policy debate in Ottawa — carbon pricing, aka the tax that PIERRE POILIEVRE wants to ax — accidentally factored in the industrial carbon price, and the projection won’t be fixed until fall.

— Critics activated: Former Liberal MP ADAM VAUGHAN, now at Navigator, who publicly fought Giroux over housing data, tells Playbook he’s “shocked that he hasn't offered his resignation” or a proper apology.

“He is unnecessarily politicizing his office, which is going to have consequences. I guarantee the next government's going to come in and dismiss him entirely.”

Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT thinks it will vindicate his policy against the frequent Conservative attacks citing the report as evidence. He did a victory lap in QP on Thursday, where he thanked the PBO — twice.

Playbook reached out for an interview, but Giroux’s office said he was unavailable, off in Montreal for a conference.

— The defensive line: Giroux has said the fix will not change the overall conclusion of the report: “If you impose carbon pricing on an economy as diverse but also as dependent on fossil fuels as Canada, it's bound to happen that there will be negative economic consequences,” he said in an interview on CBC’s “Power & Politics.”

— The firing line: A panel of pundits on the same show across the political spectrum — TIM POWERS, JORDAN LEICHNITZ, AMANDA ALVARO — all called on Giroux to resign, not so much for the mistake as how it was handled: seemingly swept under the rug, then shrug.

The interview and panel left a mark on the Ottawa fishbowl, even if the eventual revisions won’t change any hearts and minds on such a scorcher topic for the public.

— Likely fallout: Former NDP MP MATTHEW DUBÉ of Proof Strategies said the incident has “done a big disservice, unfortunately, to the office,” shaking confidence in an institution that MPs rely on for independent information.

“I suspect we won't see a renewal of this particular parliamentary budget officer, unless we see a change of government,” he said.

— Timestamp: The PBO is appointed on a seven-year term, which expires in 2025.

Dubé said he also expects lots of back-channel conversations about how to prevent this kind of upset from happening again, but that’ll all happen out of view.

— Rings a bell: It’s not the first time the office has come under fire. Toward the end of the STEPHEN HARPER era, the government had a frosty relationship with former PBO KEVIN PAGE, who worried his office would be wound down.

Playbook reached out to Page, who declined an interview, saying that as a former PBO he does not want to get into the middle of important debates between the government and the office. He said those are “healthy and inevitable.”

A message from MOWI:

MOWI and the coastal safe salmon farming sector drive economic and job growth across Canada and in First Nations communities, while honouring their commitments to responsible, sustainable, environmental stewardship. Currently, government is considering the terms of licences salmon farmers need to continue operations. Any further uncertainty in the sector will mean more declines in production, job losses, and less interest from global investors. We need certainty. That means a minimum of a 6-year licence.

 
Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the capital region with no public events on his schedule.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto for private meetings.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a 5 p.m. fundraiser at the Lakeview Village Discovery Centre in Mississauga, Ont.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Vancouver with MPs DON DAVIES, BONITA ZARRILLO and Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam candidate LAURA DUPONT for a presser at 10:45 a.m. local time (1:45 p.m. ET) touting dental care. He later speaks at the B.C. General Employees’ Union convention.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET did not make his itinerary public.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Vancouver to deliver a eulogy at the funeral for former House Speaker JOHN FRASER.

DULY NOTED


— Statistics Canada will release GDP figures for March and Q1 today.

— Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT hosts a 5 p.m. fundraiser for his Laurier—Sainte-Marie riding association at the DoubleTree by Hilton Montreal.

2024 WATCH

Donald Trump speaks from behind barricade.

Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30 in New York. | Pool photo by Seth Wenig

VERDICT IS IN — DONALD TRUMP will campaign with a criminal record.

He was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star STORMY DANIELS.

— Historic: He’s the first former president to become a convicted felon.

His sentencing is scheduled for July 11 — just four days before the GOP convention, KYLE CHENEY reports for POLITICO.

— Timeline: Trump is certain to appeal, but that could take months — years, even.

— The Politico read: ERICA ORDEN has a wrap of the six-week trial.

— One fewer vote: BEN FEUERHERD writes Trump might not be able to vote for himself, and that his time dealing with the New York criminal justice system is far from over.

But even though there are three criminal cases pending in Washington, D.C., Florida and Georgia, Trump is expected to face voters before trials on graver charges proceed. And if he wins (yes,he can still be president as a convicted felon), he might not have to face them.

— Limited impact: Trump’s pollsters argue they can spin the verdict in his favor. Biden has been silent on the trial — until now. His campaign’s take: a warning to Democrats that Trump still could win.

— Cover story: On The New Yorker: “A Man of Conviction”

 

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WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


UP: Speculation about an early Ontario election, granting Premier DOUG FORD a channel change as the conversation shifts away from the price of allowing convenience stores to sell booze.

DOWN: Ford ended the week on a sour note, after his seemingly off-the-cuff comments on immigrants.

WAY DOWN: Oakville, which entered the danger zone of becoming the first city in Canada to lose its Housing Accelerator funding (C$25 million) as Housing Minister SEAN FRASER plays hardball.

MEDIA ROOM


RACHEL AIELLO notes that the NDP stands against the date change in the Liberals’ election legislation that secures pensions for scores of MPs.

PETER ZIMONJIC of CBC News reports from the House procedure committee where Liberal MPs told the panel Conservatives are driving the harassment they face.

— Reuters’ DAVID LJUNGGREN, MICHEL ROSE, ALLISON LAMPERT and TIM HEPHER reveal French President EMMANUEL MACRON personally pressed Trudeau to grant aerospace firms relief from Russian sanctions.

ANJA KARADEGLIJA reports that Deputy Speaker CHRIS D'ENTREMONT says he did not approve an advertisement for a Conservative party event that has the NDP accusing him of partisanship.

LAWRENCE MARTINin the Globe: It’s time Liberals push Trudeau harder to get out the door.

MAX FAWCETT argues MARK CARNEY has natural advantages against PIERRE POILIEVRE.

MICHAEL GEIST writes for The Hub: The behind-the-scenes battle for Google’s media money is heating up.

— In Maclean’s, LEANNE CLEAVELEY writes on life in the age of drought.

— Finally this morning, a POLITICO exclusive: Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons.

PROZONE


Don’t miss the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM: USMCA review gets committee spotlight.

In other news for Pro readers:  

Industry urges Ottawa to go harder on Chinese steel

Rich countries were late on climate aid, and the price tag is getting higher.

Wartime emissions rage, but no one's counting.

Exxon CEO survives shareholder vote, rails against 'activist agenda.'

Northern Arctic oil resources look 'puny,' according to a U.S. Geological Survey assessment.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to ROSEMARY BARTON of CBC News, Speaker GREG FERGUS, Angus Reid President SHACHI KURL, businessman LEONARD ASPER (60!), former NDP MP PIERRE-LUC DUSSEAULT, former broadcaster VICKI GABEREAU and former B.C. Attorney General SUZANNE ANTON.

On Saturday: Housing Minister SEAN FRASER (40!) and Conservative MP LARRY MAGUIRE.

On Sunday: Journalist and author KEVIN NEWMAN.

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way.

Spotted: BRYAN ADAMS posting on Insta: "Hey JUSTIN TRUDEAU, music is global and the rules need to change with the times.”

Trudeau paying LESLIE CHURCH’s campaign office a visit.

Japan/Indo-Pacific envoy IAN MCKAY in a meeting with Okinawa Gov. DENNY TAMAKI.

U.S. Ambassador to Canada DAVID COHEN in Whitehorse.

NDP MP RICHARD CANNINGS stretching his legs during Liberal MP MONA FORTIER’s exchange with witnesses during a House international trade committee meeting to tell a staffer that DONALD TRUMP had just been found guilty on 34 charges in a NYC courtroom.

Movers and shakers: JEANNIE LEE announced she’s retiring from her storied career at CBC — a move-shake that started trending on X.

PSAC elected SHARON DESOUSA as its new national president; ALEX SILAS is the new national executive vice president.

Media mentions: TERESA WRIGHT has accepted a full-time job as a communications and public affairs specialist with the Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Longtime CBC Ottawa newscaster LAURENCE WALL signed off from the airwaves as he enters retirement.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

A message from MOWI:

True reconciliation in Canada must include opportunities for shared economic prosperity and advancement with First Nations. Government can support advancing reconciliation with a regulatory environment that supports First Nations opportunities and reduces Canada’s carbon footprint. A draft transition plan that enables the salmon farming sector to thrive, does both.

We cannot overstate the costs to local communities, and the provincial and national economies, if a new transition plan draft creates questions about our long-term operations. MOWI’s coastal safe salmon farming contributes over $955 million in economic activity, including more than 2,698 Canadian jobs.

MOWI’s impact reaches beyond the communities where we create jobs or our financial contributions to the economy.

Salmon farming provides Canadians and their families with high-quality, affordable, healthy, and sustainable choices at grocery stores and restaurants across the country.

We need the certainty of a minimum 6-year extension to continue to serve our families, and yours.

 
ON THE HILL


Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Office will publish a new report: “Costing asylum claims from visa-exempt countries.”

9:30 a.m. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault is in Longueuil, Quebec, to make an announcement about wildlife habitat protection and restoration.

10 a.m. The House finance committee has a four-hour session to hear from witnesses on Bill C-69. 

10 a.m. Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez will be in the Hammer to make an announcement at the Port of Hamilton.

2 p.m. Guilbeault and Immigration Minister Marc Miller will hold a press conference in Montreal after making a health-related funding announcement.

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: “Pumper” made the first full steamboat transit of the Rideau Canal, leaving Kingston on May 22, 1832 and arriving in Bytown on May 29.

Props to MATT DELISLE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, GORDON RANDALL, BOB GORDON, CAMERON RYAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Friday’s question: On this date in history, CHARLES WEBBER said: “PEI [Prince Edward Island] will survive it, no problem whatsoever. But it will change, that’s inevitable. Everything changes.” What was he talking about?

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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