| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
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Donald Trump’s sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the start of the Republican convention. | AP | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | DONALD TRUMP is now a convicted felon. Late yesterday afternoon, a jury of 12 in Manhattan found Trump guilty of all 34 charges of falsifying business records brought by DA ALVIN BRAGG, who in March 2023 became the first prosecutor in America to criminally charge the former president. Read the historic verdict sheet There was a strange symmetry in how Republicans and Democrats greeted the news. Trump and his allies attacked the legal system and called the decision a travesty of justice. Democrats said it proved nobody is above the law. But the two sides agreed on the big picture. “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people,” Trump said in a stormy appearance after court. JOE BIDEN was in Delaware and remained silent. But his campaign echoed Trump. “[T]oday's verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality,” MICHAEL TYLER, the communications director, said in a statement. “There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box.” GOP TENSIONS: The Trump campaign is trying to convince the GOP that nominating a felon will have no electoral consequences. In a memo, Trump’s pollsters claimed they polled the seven swing states and found “President Trump’s lead fell by two net points among those asked how they would vote if he was convicted.” TONY FABRIZIO and TRAVIS TUNIS dismissed that finding as “insignificant.” Some Republicans we pinged last night say they are finding the same kind of shrug from their constituents. “Just got off phone with centrist/indy in my district and they called it a kangaroo court,” Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) told Playbook when we questioned whether the lack of GOP concern over the conviction wasn’t a tad performative. Other Republicans were taking a more data-centric view. KARL ROVE said on Fox News that “if [Trump] is found guilty, let’s not underestimate that there is a problem.” The most common reaction we heard from Hill Republicans was that nobody really knows the political effect and that everyone is waiting for more hard numbers before freaking out. “I’m skeptical of the ‘a felony conviction helps Trump’ narrative,” said a senior GOP Senate aide. “Just look at Rove’s comments. But It will help with the base obviously, just like the raid did. Unclear how it will affect swing voters.” A senior House GOP aide crystallized the most common view. “People just think it's all bullshit,” he said. “But folks at the strategic level will listen to polling. To expand, I think Trump has a million warts. They're baked in. Jan 6th was 100X this. No one needs another character flaw to oppose him. But when it comes to who'll make you better off, this changes none of that.” DEM DIVISIONS: What’s interesting is that that characterization from the House GOP aide comes very close to the Biden world’s view of the guilty conviction’s political effect. Biden aides spent this week lecturing the media for devoting too much coverage to the trial. When the conviction came yesterday, the campaign stuck to this the-trial-isn’t-that-important stance. “Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president,” the campaign statement said. Wait, doesn’t it matter quite a bit if the GOP nominee is a convicted felon or not? What makes this position harder to understand is that the Biden campaign tells us that it would like to be talking about Trump’s threat to democracy instead. But Trump getting convicted of trying to cheat in the 2016 election somehow doesn’t make the cut when it comes to that argument. While the entire Republican Party has a unified position that the verdict is illegitimate (save for LARRY HOGAN, who immediately paid the price) the Democrats remain hesitant about what and how much to say about it. Biden aides told us last night that there are three reasons for the hands-off approach: (1) There’s no need to spike the football when the conviction is already dominating the news; (2) polling suggests the race will turn on other issues, so seizing on the conviction could be a trap; and (3) they can always readjust if the conviction somehow turns into more of an anchor for Trump. Other Democrats look at this same set of facts and see a missed opportunity. Former Obama aide DAN PFEIFFER wrote last night that he doubts the polls will move much, that the docs case and the Jan. 6 case are likely more relevant to voters and that the case could fade into irrelevance. But he comes to a different conclusion than the Biden campaign. “I am not arguing that a conviction won’t matter,” he said. “I am arguing that we must make the case against sending a convicted felon back to the White House.”
|  The exterior of the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse is seen after Trump is found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York. | Alex Kent for POLITICO | HOW TO READ THE POLLS: There are two takeaways from the many pieces about the polls out today: (1) Don’t trust the polls that ask voters what they might do if Trump is convicted. “People are very bad at putting themselves into an alternative reality and predicting how they’re going to respond to some set of facts in an alternative reality,” MARK MELLMAN told us recently. “They have a hard enough time predicting what they are going to have for dinner tonight, let alone how they’re going to react to some new situation.” (2) In a closely divided election that could, like 2016 and 2020, be decided by just tens of thousands of votes — basically a football stadium — of course a felony conviction could matter. Anything could matter. The nerdier polling case for why this may be particularly important is this: Biden’s most conspicuous weakness is with previously Democratic-leaning young and nonwhite voters and with less-engaged voters brought into the system by Trump. Trump being a felon could push these groups to Biden. Ignoring our own rule No. 1, NYT’s Nate Cohn notes that these are exactly the voters who told pollsters a conviction would give them pause: “almost all of the unusual demographic patterns among young, nonwhite and irregular voters disappear when voters are asked how they would vote if Mr. Trump were convicted.” WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: Justice JUAN MERCHAN scheduled Trump’s sentencing for July 11, four days before the start of the Republican convention. The former president will have to meet with a probation officer who will conduct an interview to compile information for a pre-sentencing report. Opinions are wildly divergent about whether Trump will face jail time. The hawks believe Trump’s bad behavior during the trial — his multiple citations for criminal contempt, his attacks on the legal process, his lack of remorse for his crimes and his many indictments in three other jurisdictions — would weigh in favor of a prison sentence were Trump anyone else. A wide array of punishments are available to Merchan: prison, community service, fines, home confinement, etc. All the legal analysts seem to agree that any potential sentence would be stayed pending Trump’s appeals, which would likely be unresolved until after the election. All of which means that the big hypothetical question pollsters should now be asking is not whether you would vote for a candidate who is convicted of a felony, but: Would you vote for one who has been sentenced to prison? We will have six weeks to speculate about the political impact of that possibility. For more about the trial and its aftermath, listen to this week’s Playbook Deep Dive podcast, in which Ryan talks to Kyle Cheney and Ankush Khardori about the case: Apple … Spotify Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B drug pricing program is supposed to help vulnerable patients access medicines at qualifying hospitals and clinics. It’s meant to be a safety net for those who really need it. So why is the 340B program padding profits for large hospitals, PBMs and chain pharmacies? Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. Let’s fix 340B. | | | MORE TRUMP TRIAL READS … Crime and punishment: “There’s a real possibility Trump can’t vote in November,” by Ben Feuerherd: “Florida, like most states, restricts the ability of people with felony convictions to vote. But the state restores the right to vote for most convicted felons after they complete all aspects of their sentence.” The legal take: “Trump Bungled the Trial,” by Ankush Khardori: “They made a series of significant strategic and tactical errors before [MICHAEL COHEN] even took the stand that appeared likely to be the product of Trump — the client’s — decision-making.” The political take: “Trump needs to win votes from people who despise him. That just got harder,” by John F. Harris: “[M]any voters who don’t much like Biden received an emphatic, unambiguous reminder of why they don’t like Trump. The movement of even a small percentage of voters … could echo decisively through the balance of the race.” Inside the courtroom: “Trump was smiling. Then the whiplash hit,” by Kyle Cheney and Erica Orden: “The trial was over. And minutes later, the jury was gone. … The most jarring aspect of the moment was its mundane efficiency.” Inside the campaigns: “Biden campaign on Trump guilty verdict: He still could win,” by Jonathan Lemire, Myah Ward and Elena Schneider: “The message from the president’s team was more of a warning to Democrats not to get carried away.” … “Trump tries to spin guilty into gold,” by Lisa Kashinsky and Jessica Piper: “The former president has proven adept at fundraising off his legal troubles.
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … The longstanding divide between the House GOP’s MAGA-minded partisans and the Senate GOP’s more circumspect conservatives persisted in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s Trump verdict — and we expect it will continue over the weekend. Compare Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s reaction, tendered at 5:10 p.m., that talked about “shameful charges,” an “absurd verdict” and a “shameful day in American history” to Senate Majority Leader MITCH McCONNELL’s terse posting nearly four hours later: “These charges never should have been brought in the first place. I expect the conviction to be overturned on appeal.” Quicker on the draw were would-be successors JOHN CORNYN, RICK SCOTT and JOHN THUNE (who was delayed by an apparent lack of in-flight wifi). At the White House Biden will start and end the day in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. In between, he’ll return to the White House (via Dover Air Force Base) to meet with Belgian PM ALEXANDER DE CROO at 2:30 p.m. and welcome the Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs for a South Lawn celebration at 4:15 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will start and end the day in LA. In between, she’ll travel to San Diego to speak at a political event at 6:40 p.m. Eastern.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | |  The Biden administration has given Ukraine the green light to strike within Russia using American-made weapons. | Alex Brandon, File/AP Photo | WAR IN UKRAINE BIDEN GOES THERE — After weeks of mounting pressure from Kyiv, Europe and Capitol Hill, the Biden administration has given Ukraine the green light to strike within Russia using American-made weapons, Erin Banco, Alex Ward and Lara Seligman scooped. It’s a momentous decision that the White House is also keeping very limited in scope, for fear of escalation with Moscow: It applies only near Kharkiv, where Russia is mounting a major offensive, not deeper into the country. The U.S. hope is that Ukraine will be able to take out Russian missiles heading for Kharkiv. Civilian infrastructure is still off the table as a target. Loosening the restrictions will provide Ukraine with added “military value,” one senior Pentagon official told members of Congress earlier this month, Lara, Connor O’Brien and Alex scooped. That was “even before the Kharkiv campaign began.” And the shifting front lines of the war this month gave U.S. military officials more grist to argue for easing up. 2024 WATCH SIREN FOR BIDEN — A new Emerson poll of New York finds Biden beating Trump by 7 points, or just 6 with third-party candidates included. The Empire State’s midterm results, and the changing coalitions of the two major parties, make this a bit less of a surprise. But still, Biden barely outside the margin of error in New York is striking. And the latest national poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist has Biden winning by 2 among registered voters head to head, but Trump jumps to a 4-point lead in a wider field. Notably, it’s JILL STEIN and CORNEL WEST, not ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., dragging Biden down. UP FOR DEBATE — “CNN Will Buck Tradition and Put Commercial Breaks in Biden-Trump Presidential Debate,” by Variety’s Brian Steinberg COUNTER-PROGRAMMING — Trump and Kennedy are both expected to have live town halls on X and NewsNation, Axios’ Sara Fischer reports. CASH DASH — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is aiming to pull in at least $10 million for Trump at a series of fundraisers tapping into his donor base later this year, per NBC’s Matt Dixon. JUDICIARY SQUARE RECUSAL REFUSAL — “Chief Justice Rejects Call for Alito’s Recusal in Jan. 6 Cases After Flag Incidents,” by NYT’s Abbie VanSickle: “The justices make those calls on their own, Chief Justice [JOHN] ROBERTS wrote in a letter to Democratic senators. … The chief justice also rejected a request to meet with Democratic senators to discuss ethics.” In a podcast interview with The New Republic’s Greg Sargent out this morning, Sen. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) says he thinks Senate Judiciary hearings on the matter would be appropriate, but realistically they can’t force the justices to appear. Whitehouse also indicates that as they probe Trump’s conversations with oil executives, it potentially “may be appropriate to refer the matter to the Department of Justice.”
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE
|  The plans for Joe Biden’s executive order on immigrations are in their final stages. | Ryan Sun/AP Photo | INCOMING ON IMMIGRATION — The big White House crackdown on immigration — including a controversial move to close the border to asylum-seekers when numbers get too high — could come as soon as Tuesday, AP’s Colleen Long and Seung Min Kim report. The plans for Biden’s executive order are in their final stages (though not done yet), as he seeks to stake out both tough-on-immigration political ground and the policy space to take action if border crossings spike later this year. Some of the policies could come directly “directly from a stalled bipartisan Senate border deal,” and echo Trump’s conservative moves as the U.S. has shifted right on immigration. Another idea for helping slow the flow of migrants: getting Greece and Italy involved. CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scooped that the U.S. plans to reroute some Latin American immigrants processed through Safe Mobility Offices to Europe instead — though the numbers would be small, perhaps fewer than 1,000 total. Canada and Spain already accept some immigrants this way too. AMERICA AND THE WORLD KICKING OFF TODAY — Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will meet with Chinese counterpart DONG JUN in Singapore at an annual conference, Bloomberg’s Philip Heijmans previews. THE BEST-LAID PLANS — “How America Inadvertently Created an ‘Axis of Evasion’ Led by China,” by WSJ’s Ian Talley and Rosie Ettenheim: “Western sanctions and export controls ... have inadvertently birthed a global shadow economy tying together democracy’s chief foes, with Washington’s primary adversary, China, at the center.” MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The Houthi rebels have again stepped up attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the U.S. and U.K. responded yesterday by hitting more than a dozen facilities in Yemen, AP’s Lolita Baldor reports. MORE POLITICS POLL POSITION — A new set of polls from the Cook Political Report/GS Strategies/BSG Swing State Project shows Democrats leading in five key Senate races — from 2 points in Michigan to 12 points in Wisconsin. These are the same polls that found Biden struggling against Trump. Some of the Senate Democratic incumbents’ strength can be attributed to greater name recognition than their opponents (nobody is above 50 percent), Amy Walter writes. But not all of it. Notably, the presidential/Senate discrepancy is almost entirely due to low-information/unengaged voters. WHAT THE DSCC IS READING — “How Republicans in Key Senate Races Are Flip-Flopping on Abortion,” by NYT’s Jess Bidgood and Lisa Lerer POLICY CORNER
|  IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel intends to make his agency's free, step-by-step tax filing program permanent. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo | THE TAXMAN COMETH — The Inflation Reduction Act’s massive infusion of funding into the IRS will pay new dividends for taxpayers in the coming years, as the agency announced that it will make its free, step-by-step tax filing program permanent, per CNN’s Katie Lobosco. In its pilot season, Direct File was used by 140,000 people across 12 states this year, and it will ramp up access over the next few years, starting with at least some taxpayers in every state in 2025. The optional program amounts to a direct government competitor to TurboTax and other private services, which charge significant fees for users to file their taxes easily. It’s a win for progressive and populist Democrats eager to have the federal government provide more visible solutions directly to consumers. On the flip side, as CNN notes, “Republicans, concerned that small businesses and the middle class could be targeted by IRS auditors, have made several efforts to chip away at the agency’s funding.” More top reads:
TRUMP CARDS A DIFFERENT TRUMP CASE — “Trump Can Proceed With Lawsuit Against His Niece, Court Rules,” by NYT’s Michael Grynbaum: “The case concerns MARY L. TRUMP’s disclosure of financial documents to a team of reporters at The New York Times.” SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Legal panel: Jonathan Turley and Tom Dupree. Panel: Julia Manchester, Juan Williams, Roger Zakheim and Marc Thiessen. NBC “Meet the Press,” guest-moderated by Peter Alexander: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Panel: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Lanhee Chen, Jen Psaki and Amy Walter. CBS “Face the Nation”: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum … Preet Bharara … Scott Anderson. CNN “State of the Union,” guest-anchored by Kasie Hunt: RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump … Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Kristen Soltis Anderson, Bakari Sellers and Scott Jennings. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). Panel: Michael Warren, Sarah McCammon, Daniella Diaz and Bob Cusack. MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Harry Litman … Christina Greer … David Ignatius. ABC “This Week”: Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Julie Pace and Jonathan Martin.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Joe Donnelly will step down as U.S. ambassador to the Vatican in July, Adam Wren scooped. Nancy Pelosi still isn’t interested. Donald Trump endorsed Kelly Armstrong for North Dakota governor. Royce White has had trouble paying child support. Ade Salim Lilly pleaded guilty to harassing members of Congress with 12,000 calls. OUT AND ABOUT — The late Joseph Lieberman was honored at the New Jewish Home’s “Eight Over Eighty” gala Wednesday night in NYC, where Hadassah Lieberman accepted on his behalf. David Remnick also paid tribute to Lieberman’s life and political legacy. Also SPOTTED: Ruth Messinger, Letty Cottin Pogrebin and Kenny Barron. — Laurie Saroff, Rachel Miller, Tizzy Brown, Hana Greenberg, Lilia Dashevsky, Tracy Tolk, Jennifer Schneider and Robin Burns launched the Capitol Jewish Women’s Network at Forbes Tate Partners. The coalition aims to bring together Jewish women working across the political/PR field for collaboration and networking in a nonpartisan space. SPOTTED: Sarah Bittleman, Emily Kastenberg, Emma Zafran, Jenn Miller, Melanie Egorin, Lindsey Rubin, Samantha Price, Manya-Jean Gitter, Quinn Hirsch, Hadar Arazi, Hannah Singer and Paige Schwartz. TRANSITIONS — Quentin Savwoir is joining the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center as director of program and strategy. He previously was national political director at Run for Something. … Tomás Kloosterman is joining the State Department as senior adviser in the Office of Global Partnerships. He previously was special adviser for public engagement at the Small Business Administration. WEEKEND WEDDING — Sofia Herring, deputy director of member services for House Appropriations Republicans, and Dylan Jones, comms director for Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.), got married Sunday at Westfields Golf Club in Clifton, Virginia. They met while working on Capitol Hill in 2019. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) … White House’s Jennifer Berlin … Charlie Meisch ... Debra DeShong … NPR’s Deirdre Walsh … Ali Noorani … Julie Moos of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs … POLITICO’s Haseb Alim … Clark Judge ... Elizabeth Dos Santos of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart’s (R-Fla.) office … Matt Berman … Amy Pfeiffer of Rep. Andy Kim’s (D-N.J.) office … Michael O’Connor of Williams & Connolly … Marilyn Tavenner … CNN’s Sara Sidner … former Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) … former Del. Madeleine Bordallo (D-Guam) (91) … Dan Pino … Al From … DCI Group’s Maegan Rosenberg … Erik Telford … Sara Carter … HSGAC’s Allison Tinsey … Phil Elwood … Newsbusters’ P.J. Gladnick … Susana Castillo of D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s office … Brad Bosserman Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: Hospitals that participate in the 340B program contract with more than 33,000 pharmacies to dispense the program’s drug prescriptions. More than 40% of these pharmacies have financial ties to one of the three largest PBMs – CVS Health, Express Scripts and OptumRx. 340B hospitals and the PBM-owned pharmacies they contract with are profiting off discounted medicines while uninsured patients are left paying full price for their medicines. Let’s fix 340B so it better helps patients. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
