| | | | |  | | By Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Ben Johansen | Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren PARIS — Before he departed France on Sunday, President JOE BIDEN touted the importance of alliances based on democratic values and expressed optimism that “that’s still who America is.” And then, just a few hours after Air Force One lifted off, the European continent, and France most of all, said it didn’t care. Sunday’s European Union elections, in which far-right parties sent a rebuke to centrist leaders aligned with Biden’s vision, felt like a political earthquake — one that could usher in even more disruptive aftershocks. Belgium Prime Minister ALEXANDER DE CROO resigned following his party’s poor showing; and, most stunningly, French President EMMANUEL MACRON went on television to call a risky snap election in just weeks that may completely reshuffle his government. But the ramifications won’t be confined to that side of the Atlantic. Rather, they’ll raise real questions for Biden: Mainly, will he too fall victim to the forces he’s warning against? During his five-day visit to France, Biden, citing long-standing protocol of not discussing other countries’ domestic politics while overseas, didn’t say anything publicly about the looming EU vote or the expected surge by far-right, Euro-skeptic parties. He didn’t comment after Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN was attacked by a man in Copenhagen on Friday, which was just the latest instance of political violence (national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN expressed some general concern about the incident to reporters). And when MARINE LE PEN, the leader of the far-right National Rally party reveled in the results on Sunday night — saying it closed “this painful globalist interlude that has caused so much suffering” — Biden released a minute-long video montage of highlights from his time with Macron. One administration official granted anonymity to discuss the matter said the White House isn’t going to overreact given that the EU results were — below the top lines — a mixed bag: While right-wing leaders delivered setbacks to some key G-7 leaders, others fared worse than expected. In a way, the president’s warnings here against isolationism and extremism look all the more prescient after Sunday’s vote. But the flip side is not comforting for the White House: It appears that a lot of voters on both sides of the Atlantic are tuning out leaders’ talk about democracy and values, increasingly frustrated with the government amid an economic rough patch. “It’s kind of a paradox, this EU election. The pandemic and war in Ukraine have shown us the need to band together. But people still vote with their national politics in mind,” said LAURA KRAUSE, the founder of More In Common, a nonprofit aimed at mitigating political polarization. “Citizens don’t look at who’s the best party to build a better Europe; it’s more about the current grievances around domestic politics.” Macron’s snap election gamble is twofold: He’s hoping that turnout will be higher in French elections than it was Sunday for the EU vote; and, secondly, that if the far right does secure a parliamentary majority, the potential dysfunction will help his party in the next presidential contest in 2027. “Any time you have an electorate asking the question, ‘What’s the worst that can happen?’, you sometimes find out,” said IAN RUSSELL, a Democratic consultant with clients in the U.S. and Europe. It’s also fairly evident what the worst that can happen is. If the current group of G-7 leaders, who meet later this week in Italy, are weakened at home or eventually ousted by right-wing leaders, it would all but assuredly damage support for Ukraine, even with EU Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN’s pro-EU coalition maintaining its majority. “In our system, Macron can say that foreign policy is the domain réservé — it’s my area — and can carve out space to still determine our course on certain foreign policy issues,” said LEONIE ALLARD, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But it’s still a huge blow if this [election gambit] backfires: How can you be credible if you want to be the front line against Russia if you have a right-wing government?” More immediately, the political upheaval in France means the country will be “more focused on domestic issues” going forward, said CAMILLE GRAND, a former NATO assistant secretary general of defense based in Paris. “Beyond the July 7 parliamentary election, if Macron does not manage to pull together a coalition, things might get much more complicated,” Grand continued. “But history is not written yet!” Biden, who made clear last week in France his determination to stand with Ukraine, is subject to many of the same political forces that are upsetting the status quo in Europe. And while the president — with his eagerness to move up the first presidential debate with DONALD TRUMP to late June — is showing he’s ready to take the fight head on, there is no guarantee voters will respond any differently than they just did across Europe. Krause is hardly the only observer of transatlantic politics who has noted the parallels. “What Trump and these right-wing parties in Europe have in common is they’re able to tap into people’s emotions and grievances in a way that liberal democratic parties have not,” she said. MESSAGE US — Are you MARINE LE PEN? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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| | CHANGING THE SHEETS: For over a year, the Biden campaign and its allies have dismissed Democratic concerns about the president’s reelection prospects. But now, Biden is changing course on a multitude of fronts, our ADAM WREN and ELENA SCHNEIDER report. He’s not conceding that the “bedwetters” are right, but his recent messaging moves — ditching the traditional debate structure, sitting down for interviews with major publications and directly referring to Donald Trump as a “convicted felon” — amounts to him changing the linens (ok, we are hitting the end of this metaphor’s use.) On the policy front, Biden has adopted a slew of fresh initiatives, including how Ukraine can use American weapons in Russia and executive action effectively shutting down huge swaths of the U.S.-Mexico border. Inside the Biden campaign, officials stress that this ramp up has been long planned. But they also acknowledge that they’re attempting to make up ground with key voting blocs. “It’s no secret that amongst those who are the most tuned in, Joe Biden is faring well,” one campaign official said. “Where we have to make up ground is among those who have yet to pay a lot of attention to the presidential election. That’s where the information gap is widest.” AND HERE WE GO: On Monday, the jury of 12 Delawarians began deliberations in the criminal trial of HUNTER BIDEN, who is facing three gun-related felony charges, our BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and JOSH GERSTEIN report. The group of six men and six women deliberated for about an hour before being dismissed this afternoon without a verdict. Biden’s defense team wrapped up its case earlier today after deciding not to call on him to testify. First lady JILL BIDEN, who has attended most of the trial, was also back in the courtroom today. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by our KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS, who reports that billions of dollars in infrastructure funding are finally flowing into towns and cities, nearly three years after Congress approved Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure law. And now, some vulnerable House Republicans who voted against the legislation are taking credit for the improvements, without mentioning their votes. Among them is Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.), who called the legislation a “socialist wish list” and a “fiasco” but celebrated the nearly $26 million grant her district will get under the law for a public transit project. Senior deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES and senior adviser to the chief of staff SALONI SHARMA shared the piece on X. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO WATCH: In New York over the weekend, budding pop singer CHAPPELL ROAN delivered a stark message during her performance at the Governor’s Ball Music Festival, looking directly into a camera: “This is a response to the White House, who asked me to perform for Pride. We want liberty, justice and freedom for all. When you do that, that’s when I’ll come.” Roan’s message, an obvious nod to the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, was met with a roar of applause from the audience of mostly young concert-goers. ARE WE GOING BACK TO THIS STORY LINE? President Biden’s approval rating has hit 37.6 percent in the latest FiveThirtyEight average — an all-time low for the president. His disapproval rating is at a staggering 56.6 percent, which also makes for a record high. In response, NATE SILVER asks the somewhat dormant question of whether Biden should drop out (he’s not going to). “Dropping out would be a big risk,” Silver posted on X. “But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask.”
| | IMMIGRATION GROUPS TURN UP THE HEAT: Immigration advocacy group FWD.us launched a new digital and TV ad campaign on Monday, profiling a family who would benefit if Biden moves forward with affirmative relief for long-term, undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, our MYAH WARD writes in. It’s part of outside groups’ larger push for the White House to move ahead with the new policy. And it notably comes right after Biden issued his executive action to effectively shut down major sections of the border. As Myah and LISA KASHINSKY reported last week, Biden is weighing “parole in place” for some undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, which would shield them from deportation and allow them to work legally while they pursue a path to citizenship. His officials see potential political gains in taking this action soon, pointing to former President BARACK OBAMA’s summer rollout of DACA before the 2012 election. NORTH STAR BOUND: PATRICK GAGE, former candidate for county commissioner in Hennepin County, Minnesota, has joined the Biden campaign as its political director in Minnesota, he announced on X Monday.
| | THE GREATEST JOB BIDEN HAS EVER CREATED: Joe Biden is not only generating a historic jobs market, he's ensuring that people remain in the right job for them. On Monday, UConn Men’s basketball coach DAN HURLEY turned down a six-year, $70 million deal to go pro with the Los Angeles Lakers — opting to stay in Storrs as the Huskies look to three peat, the first time since JOHN WOODEN’s UCLA teams tore through the sport in the late 1960s. It’s great news for our resident UConn fan SAM STEIN, who wrote this item would say there was never any doubt in his mind but who was — like a total lunatic — studying the video footage of Hurley at the BILLY JOEL concert over the weekend looking for clues about whether or not he was going.
| | JUST IN CASE: Biden administration officials have discussed a unilateral deal with Hamas to secure the release of all five American hostages being held in Gaza if current ceasefire negotiations with Israel fail, NBC’s MONICA ALBA, CAROL E. LEE and COURTNEY KUBE report. Such negotiations would not include Israel and instead be mediated by Qatari interlocutors. It’s unclear what the United States would give in exchange for the release of hostages, but officials noted Hamas could have an incentive to cut a deal with Washington because doing so would likely further strain relations between the U.S. and Israel. AND SPEAKING OF: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN returned to the Middle East on Monday. His arrival came as a Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal hangs in the balance. It also took place after an Israeli operation rescued four hostages being held by Hamas, but killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians, AP’s MATTHEW LEE reports. If that wasn’t enough on the diplomatic plate, Blinken’s trip also comes after a key member of BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government, war cabinet minister BENNY GANTZ, resigned on Sunday. GENUINE GOOD NEWS: Violent crime dropped significantly in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same time last year, new FBI data shows. Overall, violent crime dropped 15.2 percent, with murder decreasing by 26.4 percent, rape by 25.7 percent, robbery by 17.8 percent and aggravated assault by 12.5 percent. The data from the Bureau’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program is a welcomed sign for the White House, which has sought to counter the Republican-led insistence that crime is rising.
| | | | The Quiet Voice in R.F.K. Jr.’s Ear: A Former Aide to the Clintons (NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien) The U.S. Economy Reaches Superstar Status (The Atlantic’s Rogé Karma) France’s far-right forces hold talks on teaming up to beat Macron (POLITICO's Victor Goury-Laffont)
| | | SNL alum and University (Irvine, CA) High School baseball standout WILL FERRELL frequently played Bush on the show. His impression was so good that the former president actually believed a slip-up that show writers invented: that he used the word strategery. “I had dinner with Lorne Michaels, the head of Saturday Night Live,” Bush said in an interview with JIMMY KIMMEL in 2017. “And he said, 'I put a great speechwriter on you, and he came up with ‘strategery.’” And I said, 'Wait a minute, I said ‘strategery.’ And he said, 'No, you didn’t say strategery. I said, 'I damn sure said ‘strategery.’” From then on, the meeting of top national security officials in the Bush White House was renamed “The Strategery Meeting,” according to Time Magazine. A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it! Edited by Sam Stein and Rishika Dugyala.
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