THE CENTER HOLDS — Far-right parties in France and Germany made big gains in the European Parliament elections held over the weekend, reflecting rising skepticism of the European Union’s project in collective governance, and the political potency of issues like immigration. But even with significant far-right victories in France and Germany, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen looks able to maintain a centrist governing coalition — avoiding the political center’s worst nightmare of having to work with further right groups to maintain power in Brussels. Instead, the biggest shock of the night came from France, where the far-right National Rally won over 30 percent of the vote — compelling French President Emmanuel Macron to call snap national parliamentary elections a month before the Paris Olympics in an attempt to stem the nationalist tide before the pivotal 2027 French presidential race. Centrist parties held their own, however, continuing to battle the far-right’s slow rise, with 2027 emerging as a pivotal referendum on the EU’s future. The implications of the European elections for the United States may not be as far reaching. The stability of Europe’s centrist parties means foreign policy emanating from Brussels won’t change drastically in the months before the 2024 American presidential election. “If we would have had this really, really strong surge to the far-right [in Europe], combined with a potential Trump presidency, that could have major implications for geopolitics and Ukraine,” said Barbara Moens, POLITICO’s chief EU correspondent, who has criss-crossed Europe covering the elections. “But overall the policies and leadership [in Europe] will remain as it is when it comes to Ukraine security and other international issues,” she added. Nightly spoke with Moens to learn more about the outcome of the elections and what they might mean for the transatlantic relationship as America turns toward its own pivotal election later this year. The following has been edited for length and clarity. The European far-right made gains over the weekend, particularly in France and Germany, where those parties outperformed the centrist coalitions of Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. What’s the vibe in Brussels right now? Actually, there’s definitely a sense of relief in the political center here. The European political center had expected a very large surge to the far-right, and in a way, the center held. If you look at the centrist parties in the European Parliament, they still have a majority. There is a swing to the right, but it’s far less than expected, especially toward the far-right. So, there’s this sigh of relief among EU officials and diplomats. The second bit that everyone is talking about is what this means for von der Leyen. Does she have enough votes in the European Parliament to secure a second term? Let’s stay there. Where does von der Leyen stand now? Does she have a strong shot at keeping the European Commission presidency for another five years? Her party not only stayed the largest party in the European Parliament, but they actually gained some seats as well. That’s clearly a victory for them. However, that does not automatically guarantee her a second term. It’s a complicated process. First, she needs to have the support from a majority of the 27 EU heads of state to nominate her, and only then can she go to the European Parliament to secure a second term, where she also needs a majority. That will happen in July. Let’s focus in particular for a moment on France, one of the more shocking results of the night, where the far-right National Rally won over 30 percent of the vote. Central to the National Rally campaign was their young leader, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella. Who is Bardella, and what makes him such an effective leader for National Rally? In France, the far-right has generally been known for Marine Le Pen, whose father was the leader decades ago. She’s angling for the French presidency in 2027. In the meantime, we have Jordan Bardella, who is a young, very charismatic leader, within the National Rally. Their party just did extremely well in the national elections. They are now the biggest French party in the European Parliament, and they have done so well that Macron has called for new parliamentary elections in France, because he sees this signal from the French population as a national signal as well. Those new French parliamentary elections will be at the end of June and early July. As you mentioned, Macron took a big risk last night and called for snap French national parliamentary elections. What do you make of Macron’s move? France is a key European country. The fact that a far-right party has won European Parliament elections there is a key outcome of these pan-European elections, even though, as we said, the surge to the right overall in Europe has been more limited than what has been expected. And then, as you said, there’s this surprise announcement from Macron to dissolve the French national assembly and call new national elections, based on a European Parliament result. Nobody saw this coming. Normally these are two completely different sets of elections, so it was a huge surprise. Obviously, a lot of analysts and reporters are trying to interpret what the strategy of Macron is. One interpretation is he’s doing this big, big gamble, because he doesn’t think the far-right in France will be able to repeat that success in a national election. Another angle is that even if the National Rally becomes a part of the French government now, it might show that the far-right can’t govern, that they can’t be responsible. That might pave the way for another centrist government in the French presidential election in 2027, which is really, really key, because in the French system the president holds a lot of power. I don’t think you can underestimate the impact of having a far-right French president. What that would mean for Europe and NATO, is very, very far-reaching. You’ve been covering these European Parliament elections for months. In the end, what were the critical issues motivating voters across the continent? Well, it’s a hard question to answer! While these are elections for the European Parliament, the campaigns are very different across the 27 different European Union countries. I traveled to a lot of them throughout the campaign, and there’s a ton of variety. For example, in Finland it was all about defense and security and protecting Ukraine. In Rome, it’s all about migration because it’s so close to the Mediterranean Sea. These motivating issues are so different across the different countries, from inflation to housing to cost of living. Migration is certainly a central one, but there are really so many different issues. From the perspective of American readers, what should we make of the results of these European elections? Actually, I think it doesn’t matter that much for the United States. If we would have had this really, really strong surge to the far-right, combined with a potential Trump presidency, that could have major implications for geopolitics and Ukraine. But as we’re in this bleary-eyed morning, just after the election, it actually looks like Europe will have a little bit tougher migration policy, maybe a little less ambitious climate policy, but overall the policies and leadership will remain as it is when it comes to Ukraine security and other international issues. From an American perspective, it’s nothing to worry about. It’s potentially, even for the Joe Biden fans, somewhat reassuring, given that the European Union will continue to uphold the rule of law and democracy and political stability. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com.
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