| | | | |  | | By Emily Schultheis and Will McCarthy | Presented by SEIU-UHW | | 
Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders are looking to get a measure off the ballot by pulling its coalition partners in opposite directions. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo | WILL THEY STICK TOGETHER? Prosecutors and retailers worked together to qualify an initiative rolling back parts of the decade-old criminal-justice reform known as Proposition 47. The big question this week: How long can rural sheriffs and the board of Walmart share a common vision for fighting crime? Sheriffs and district attorneys have been calling for changes to Prop 47, the ballot measure that reduced sentences for non-violent offenses, since voters approved it in 2014. Retailers, including small shops, grocery chains and big-box behemoths, have grown more concerned about law-enforcement policy since a pandemic-era spike in some forms of retail theft drew new attention to the issue. They saw eye-to-eye on overhauling Prop 47 and qualified it for the November ballot through a coalition that combined the DAs’ political reach and the retailers’ cash. Now Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders are scheming to get the measure off the ballot by pulling the coalition partners in opposite directions. The Democratic-led Legislature is moving forward with a suite of bills addressing many of the retailers’ concerns, with a new crime category for serial theft and a crackdown on the resale of stolen goods. The DAs have called the proposals inadequate, arguing the only way to combat retail theft is to make changes to Prop 47, and the only way to make changes to Prop 47 is to take it back to the voters. Last week, Democrats announced they would add urgency clauses and “inoperability clauses” to the bill package, which would revoke the laws if voters approved the initiative. “If a ballot measure purporting to address retail theft and fentanyl issues is approved by voters this fall, aspects of these laws simply won’t be applicable and there will be conflicts,” Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas said at a press conference this afternoon. “We should solve our crime problem with carefully considered legislation that addresses the problem, because that’s how to solve this — not through blunt force, but through informed fixes.” The ballot measure coalition’s head said the move to add amendments appeared to be designed to force retailers to choose between the two lawmaking efforts. “There is absolutely no policy rationale for including them, except to put pressure on supporters and divide those seeking criminal justice reforms,” Greg Totten, CEO of the California District Attorneys Association, said in a statement. For the law enforcement officials behind the initiative, taking a hard line against Sacramento Democrats largely comes without cost: Many of the most vocal officials represent conservative-minded voters who are more adamant about tough-on-crime policy. But the stores, which would likely saddle the eight-figure cost of a ballot campaign, also answer to shareholders and consumers — meaning they may be more likely to consider the financial benefits of a compromise. “While there’s a lot of things that have been said publicly and privately, I also think there’s a lot more clarity about where people are at and where the conversations need to be had,” said the California Grocers Association’s Daniel Conway. Chief among them: “Going back to the ballot is probably the fundamental sticking point.” NEWS BREAK — A federal appeals court today rejected Uber’s challenge to California’s gig work law … The same court appeared disinclined to hold Joe Biden liable for allegations of complicity in genocide in Gaza … The California Attorney General’s office said the San Francisco prosecutors did not abuse their power when they decided not to file charges over a Walgreens shooting. Welcome to Ballot Measure Weekly, a special edition of Playbook PM every Monday focused on California’s lively realm of ballot measure campaigns. Drop us a line at eschultheis@politico.com and wmccarthy@politico.com, or find us on X — @emilyrs and @wrmccart.
| | | | A message from SEIU-UHW: The Healthcare Minimum Wage Law is set to give hundreds of thousands of our caregivers a raise on July 1st. This pay increase is long overdue for workers and more important than ever for patients, whose care is being jeopardized every day by the short staffing crisis. A $25/hour minimum wage will ensure that facilities across the state can retain experienced staff and attract new workers to the field. Learn more. | | | |  | TOP OF THE TICKET | | A highly subjective ranking of the ballot measures getting our attention this week. 1. PROP 47 OVERHAUL: It’s a consequential week for the measure to roll back parts of Prop 47. After a frenzied few days last week, Democrats’ retail theft and public safety bills head for committee hearings on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the measure is also expected to formally qualify for the ballot this week. There’s likely to be plenty of action behind the scenes as the measure’s backers and Democratic leaders figure out next steps in any potential negotiations. 2. MEASURE J (SONOMA COUNTY): Animal-rights activists have qualified a measure that would make “America’s Provence” the first county in the country to ban factory farms. As POLITICO’s Ben Fox reports from Petaluma, the fight between people who shop at farmers markets and those who supply them may soon be coming to other regions where exurban growth encroaches on farmers’ turf. 3. TAXPAYER PROTECTION ACT: California’s Supreme Court heard oral arguments in eight new cases last week, but the political world is waiting on just one result: whether the California Business Roundtable’s measure to block tax increases survives to be the year’s biggest ballot fight. 4. PRISON LABOR: Even as it scrambles to protect Prop 47, the criminal-justice reform movement could notch a win with a constitutional amendment to prohibit forced prison labor. ACA 8, which would expand the constitution’s definition of “slavery,” comes up for a vote in the Senate’s public safety committee on Tuesday after passing the Assembly late last month. 5. MARRIAGE EQUALITY: Frank Schubert was called a “mastermind” for his work as chief strategist on the Prop 8 campaign banning same-sex marriage. But now that LGBTQ+ groups are looking for a rematch to remove the dormant language, Schubert hasn’t been contacted to work on a No campaign. Other big names from the 2008 campaign, including San Diego pastors Jim Garlow and Miles McPherson, are sitting it out, too, as our editor (and author of marriage-equality history “The Engagement”) Sasha Issenberg writes in POLITICO Magazine. 6. OIL WELLS: Proponents of a 2022 law that keeps new oil wells 3,200 feet away from schools and homes say they are confident in their polling and will accept no weakening of the law. It remains to be seen if oil companies will be able to strike a legislative compromise (with what appears to be minimal leverage) in exchange for withdrawing their referendum. 7. PERSONAL FINANCE: A bill mandating a high school personal finance course moved forward, potentially driving a parallel initiative from the ballot. Assembly Bill 2927 was referred to the Senate Education Committee last week after passing unanimously through the Assembly in late May. But proponent Tim Ranzetta said he would pull his initiative only if the bill was signed by Newsom and “the ink was dry.”
| | | DOWN BALLOT | | | ON OTHER BALLOTS — An Arizona ballot measure that would allow local police to arrest people crossing the U.S.-Mexico border will appear on the November ballot, after the GOP-led state legislature approved it last week … Oklahomans will vote on language that would strengthen the state constitution’s ban keeping noncitizens from voting, a proposal that’s made the ballot in a handful of states in recent years … Colorado’s governor signed a bill that would delay the statewide implementation of ranked-choice voting, should the electorate approve a ballot measure instituting the practice this fall … Third time’s the charm? In South Dakota, a measure to approve recreational marijuana will appear on the ballot after similar efforts were struck down in court (2020) and defeated by voters (2022) … As they cast ballots for European Parliament candidates on Sunday, residents of Limburg, Germany, voted in favor of a slightly more morbid proposal: a resolution to cull the city’s pigeon population.
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| … MORRO BAY — Most environmentalists believe new battery storage plants are crucial for meeting California’s ambitious climate goals. But some are also concerned that, if misplaced, such plants could instead usher in a cataclysmic future involving toxic gasses, “thermal runaway” and a fire that can’t be doused with water. Voters in this sunny corner of the Central Coast are now being asked to determine what qualifies as an acceptable level of risk. Vistra Corp is hoping to convert the site of a defunct, former PG&E power plant in the center of a sleepy tourist and fishing town into a 600-megawatt battery storage project, citing the local connection to existing transmission infrastructure. That project has been winding its way through city government since 2020 and is currently awaiting a draft environmental impact report. But rather than risk an unfavorable decision from the five-member city council, an opposition group called the Citizens for Estero Bay Preservation garnered enough signatures to qualify an initiative that would leave the future of the battery plant in the hands of voters. Without the initiative, “three members of the council could overrule the citizens in town,” said Steve Ray, one of the leaders of the group. Members of the group say with a population of 10,000, Morro Bay is not an industrial town. In the most recent general plan, the power plant site had already been rezoned for open space and tourism. But more importantly, they believe the battery plant poses an existential risk to the future of the city. “We can put up with some burned homes,” Ray said. “The biggest danger is the town is going to be gassed to death.” The Citizens for Estero Bay Preservation have pointed to fires at battery storage plants north of them in Moss Landing and more recently at another facility in Otay Mesa near San Diego as evidence of the danger. Because of the way the chemicals used in battery plants react with water, fires are exceedingly difficult to extinguish and also release dangerous gasses. Ray said the fire risks associated with lithium-ion batteries make storage facilities “inherently unsafe in populated areas.” The Texas-based electricity and power company Vistra Corp declined to comment, but has called such safety events uncommon. It is unclear how they will push back on the burgeoning resistance as the issue moves closer to the ballot.
| | BLAST FROM THE PAST | | This March, Proposition B, which would have amended the San Francisco city charter to add more police officers and a police recruitment fund, was shot down at the ballot box. In the past, San Francisco has used the letter B for measures to … decouple cable car fares from other railway prices (1981, passed) … freeze the pay of city employees for one year (1988, passed) … allow for the construction of a ballpark at China Basin (1996, passed) … establish an affordable housing fund (2008, failed) … fund an earthquake safety measures bond (2010, passed) … and limit commercial activities at Coit Tower (2012, passed).
| | | | A message from SEIU-UHW: California’s short staffing crisis affects patients everywhere by delaying care and putting unsustainable strain on our caregivers. With the skyrocketing cost of living we’re seeing across California, it’s more important than ever to make sure healthcare workers are being paid a liveable wage. Not only will that help hundreds of thousands of workers take care of their families, it will improve patient care by keeping caregivers on the job and encouraging more Californians to join the industry.
Additionally, the impact on the state budget has been exaggerated, with much of the costs predicted to be offset by workers no longer relying on state-funded services like Medi-Cal after receiving higher wages. See this in-depth UC Berkeley Labor Center report for more details. | | | | | THE Q&A | | WITH CHRIS LEHMAN — A veto referendum on a 2022 law banning new oil wells next to schools, homes and hospitals is headed for the ballot. POLITICO spoke to a lead strategist for those opposing the measure about efforts to keep the law intact: Chris Lehman from environmental advocate group The Campaign for a Safe and Healthy California, which has raked in money from ex-Google chief Eric Schmidt. You’ve already been very visible for a “no” campaign, running ads much earlier on the calendar than we usually see them. How much is that about trying to get oil interests to pull their initiative? We didn’t do it to scare someone off the ballot, we did it to win the campaign. There are plenty of stories of California ballot measure campaigns where one side spends an obscene amount of money to get their point across, and you never hear from the other side of the campaign. I was the lead strategist of Prop 31 in 2022, when the tobacco industry was trying to do the same thing. They ended up orphaning their measure on the ballot and we ended up getting 63 percent of the vote. Here the opposition has already spent over $20 million, a wild number for early June. Why are you so confident you can win this thing? The truth is that Californians do not want oil wells next to babies, schools and places where people live. They don’t want that, because they know it's toxic. Our challenge strategically is to make sure that Californians know that’s what this measure does. I'm confident that we have enough money to get the truth out. What has been the objective of your spending so far? Right now, we’re also hyper-focused on getting in front of policy and opinion leaders. One person we approached early on was a retired politician named Arnold Schwarzenegger, and he was right there with us. We have over 400 organizations and the current governor and the former governor, one from each party. We just got the California Teachers Association, got the Democratic Party. We have had generosity from philanthropists; the Graton Rancheria gave us a huge boost. [The California Independent Petroleum Association] is going down a path that’s going to lead them to a loss, whether they know that or not, I don’t know. If they want to run into a buzz saw, they are welcome to do that.
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