Why the big boot-Biden House Dem wave isn’t here yet

Jul 18, 2024

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

President Joe Biden walks down the steps of Air Force One.

President Joe Biden is continuing to face calls for him to step aside from within his own party. | Susan Walsh/AP

In the last 24 hours, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and, now, Barack Obama, have essentially given political cover to any congressional Democrat who wishes to speak out against Joe Biden.

That much-rumored flood of House Democratic statements still may not arrive.

Democrats had initially predicted that more of their colleagues would call for Biden to leave the ticket after today, the final day of the Republican National Convention. But now, with Biden’s campaign on the brink of collapse, many Democrats say there’s little political value to take that position publicly unless they have to.

Privately, a half-dozen House Democratic lawmakers and senior aides described a “writing on the wall” moment. Many lawmakers were already skeptical that individual statements would change the president’s mind, and now — with the tune potentially changing from inside the White House — they believe there’s even more reason to sit back and wait.

"Why pull out your knife if he's already bleeding out, unless you want to make a point of it at home," one aide said. Another person added there was no point in a member of Congress calling on Biden to step down when “at this point, everyone knows Pelosi, Schumer and Obama are handling it.”

Then there are the political effects. Plenty of battleground Democrats are uncertain about what would happen if they called on Biden to step aside in a state where they’re already closely working with the Biden campaign. (One instance of that: The Michigan state party booted Rep. Hillary Scholten from a coordinated campaign there. The decision was reversed after POLITICO inquired about the move.)

Another case in point: Out of 213 House Democrats, only 30 Democrats were willing to sign onto a letter from Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) this week registering complaints with the DNC’s plans to speed up Biden’s nomination process. And that letter didn’t even call for Biden to step aside. That’s far short of the goal for the letter, which was 50 signatories, according to one person familiar with the effort. And Huffman himself told us at least 60 supported it in total but were “nervous about their name on it.” The pressure campaign from state parties, the DNC and even local labor groups didn’t help.

In the end, the letter didn’t even get sent. One Democratic lawmaker put it like this: “Despite almost unanimous agreement about what needs to happen, colleagues are remarkably fearful of retribution if they put their heads above water.”

This could change, though, if Biden remains in the race by next week when Congress returns, when the full group of House Democrats plans to meet at 9 a.m. on Tuesday. Right now, that’s still an “if.”

In the meantime, Democrats are speaking out against the party leaders’ slow trickle of information as the state of their party becomes more dire. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) called it “shameful” that party leaders have not confirmed or denied recent reports about their interactions with Biden. “It’s a lack of leadership and it’s making all Democrats look bad,” Omar wrote on X.

— Sarah Ferris

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, July 18, where the Liz Lemon meme has never felt so apt — but we’re not yet desperate enough to eat this monstrosity.

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN MILWAUKEE!

Watch the full event from the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the RNC HERE.

The program featured Bayer’s Jessica Christiansen, senior vice president and head of crop science and sustainability communications, as well as a conversation with Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill for discussions about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election.

LATEST ON THE HILL’S TRUMP SHOOTING PROBES

Another day, another flurry of activity from Capitol Hill as it digs further into multiple investigations into the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump.

Judiciary Committee Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) included this detail in a letter he sent to FBI Director Christopher Wray today: That the Secret Service told law enforcement partners during briefings on July 8, according to whistleblowers who have come forward to the committee, that it had “limited resources” the week of Trump’s rally because the agency was involved in covering the NATO summit in Washington, D.C. An FBI spokesperson confirmed the bureau received the letter but declined to comment further.

Jordan also previewed for Wray a laundry list of questions he should be prepared to answer when he appears before the House Judiciary Committee next week about the shooting at Trump’s rally. Wray’s appearance was on the books before Saturday, but the focus of the hearing will now obviously be radically different.

Among the questions lawmakers have for Wray: Wanting to know details about how many FBI employees are involved in the bureau’s investigation into the shooting, questions about the security perimeter at the rally and the whistleblowers’ allegation.

Meanwhile, the FBI told the House Homeland Security Committee that Wray will not appear before that panel on Tuesday, a committee aide told POLITICO. Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) also asked Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to testify. TBD if those two officials show up.

The committee activity comes as Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will establish a bipartisan task force, which will include subpoena authority, to take the lead on the House’s investigation next week.

And while there are growing calls among top Republicans for Cheatle to step down or be fired — Johnson disclosed to POLITICO that he had called the White House Thursday to push for the latter — so far Senate Democrats aren’t ready to go there.

Ursula heard back from spokespeople for five of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats — Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, Montana’s Jon Tester, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown. The senators have each called for investigations into the shooting, but none — yet — have called for Cheatle to resign or for Biden to fire her.

— Jordain Carney with an assist from Ursula Perano

JOHNSON WARNS OF LEGALITY OF BIDEN TICKET SWITCH

Speaker Mike Johnson on Thursday suggested that Republicans could take legal action against any Democratic attempt to replace President Joe Biden on the ballot this year.

“I don't know how they can just wave a magic wand and make it go away without violating at least some great tradition and probably some statutory law itself, at least in some of these states,” Johnson said in an interview with POLITICO Playbook at the RNC. “There are some very unique statues out there and there are some real impediments to just making an easy switch like that.”

When asked if the GOP counsel could intervene, though, Johnson noted that elections are run entirely at the state level.

What else Johnson said: The GOP speaker summed up his difficult tenure since taking office: "I spend half my day as Speaker of the House and half my day as a mental health counselor." Asked about how many hours of sleep he got per night, he estimated about four or five per night.

"If I go to sleep there will be a coup on me,” he quipped.

— Anthony Adragna and Sarah Ferris

LANDRIEU WORKS THE PHONES

Mitch Landrieu, President Joe Biden’s campaign co-chair, has been dialing House Democrats in recent days who have privately voiced concerns about his presidency, according to two people familiar. At least some of the calls came after Biden spoke with a group of centrist Democrats in the New Democrat Coalition — a call that left several lawmakers upset about the president’s defensiveness.

— Sarah Ferris

THE SENATE DEM TAKE

Senate Democrats by and large are still holding back from calling on the president to step aside. Still, they know things are uncertain, to say the least.

“I don’t have a crystal ball,” Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) told reporters on Thursday when asked if she’s confident in Biden as the nominee. “But we will resolve all of that. And the fact is that the Democrats are very, very united on the danger that former President Trump poses.”

Pressed in a follow-up question on what it means for Democrats like her to not definitively say Biden is the right pick, she replied, “I can’t say definitively that Trump is going to win either, you know. So, things happen.”

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) remains the only Democratic senator to have called on Biden to step aside. However, our colleagues reported last night that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has relayed concerns from the caucus to the president.

— Ursula Perano

HUDDLE HOTDISH

Mike Johnson said he was only thinking one thing when JD Vance gave a shoutout to his mom on Wednesday night: “Don't cry on national television.” Johnson accidentally sat next to Vance’s mom on Wednesday night, where he introduced her to Trump, he said during a Playbook event.

Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss met Vance at the RNC.

Has Tina Smith found true love?

A fun throwback from a past Republican convention.

QUICK LINKS

More than 200 congressional staffers sign letter protesting Netanyahu address, from Brad Dress in The Hill

Jamie Raskin, a Key Democrat, Urged Biden to Reconsider Campaign, from Reid J. Epstein in The New York Times

Trump adviser says Project 2025 is 'pain in the ass' for campaign from POLITICO

J.D. Vance Left His Venmo Public. Here’s What It Shows, from Dhruv Mehrotra, Tim Marchman and Andrew Couts in Wired

Matt Gaetz and Kevin McCarthy bring their feud to the RNC, from Irie Sentner

GOP campaign staffer "liked" antisemitic memes, from Stephen Neukam and Stef W. Kight in Axios

Conservative group made last-ditch play to influence Democratic primary in high-profile Oregon congressional race, from Bryce Doyle in Oregon Public Broadcasting

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TRANSITIONS

Dylan Smith joined RH Strategic Communications as a senior public affairs strategist. He was previously communications director for Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.). He is also an alumni of the office of Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.).

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

Trivia

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