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BY STUART LAU AND PHELIM KINE
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GOOD MORNING, CHINA WATCHERS. If you mistakenly thought July would be just like any other quiet summer season, you were not alone. This is Stuart Lau covering the Europe-China file — but first, Phelim Kine has got you some top updates from D.C.
WHAT KAMALA HARRIS WOULD MEAN FOR CHINA
The fallout from President Joe Biden's decision Sunday not to seek reelection continues but there are indications Vice President Kamala Harris —whose self-chosen Chinese name is He Jinli (賀錦麗 ) —will maintain the Biden administration's China policy if elected in November.
Tight lips in Beijing. A Chinese translation of Biden's letter announcing his decision was circulating on China's Weibo social media platform within hours. But Beijing is steering clear of comment. “The presidential elections are the United States' own affairs. We have no comment on that,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Monday.
China treading carefully. "The first message out of the embassy in Washington [to Beijing] is to stress that you cannot assume Kamala will be at the top of the ticket —I think Hillary's loss in 2016 has made them cautious about assuming that something is a sure thing," said David Rank, former chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Beijing during the Obama administration and now head of China practice at The Cohen Group, a business consultancy firm.
Nationalist spin cycle. Biden's decision lit up Chinese social media with the "Biden exit" hashtag getting 370 million clicks within hours, Singapore's Straits Times newspaper reported Monday. Chinese social media commentary leaned toward Harris losing to Donald Trump in November. Expect government-backed online commentators to spin Biden's move as another data point in the Chinese government's broader narrative of an America in decline. Biden's decision "provides Beijing with further ammunition to amplify another recurring Chinese narrative: that democratic governance is disorganized," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Trade war skeptic. Harris has been a reliable amplifier of the administration's messaging on China, positions that broadly align with those she held prior to becoming vice president. As a senator, she criticized Trump's approach to Beijing, telling then-Vice President Mike Pence during the vice presidential debate in 2020 that Trump "lost that trade war" and that his tariffs hurt the American economy without rebalancing the U.S.-China relationship.
"Yes" to de-risking. But like other administration officials, Harris has advocated for "de-risking" from Beijing, a policy that encourages reducing the extent to which Western economies depend on China. "It's not about pulling out, but it is about ensuring that we are protecting American interests, and that we are a leader in terms of the rules of the road, as opposed to following others' rules," Harris said in an interview with CBS last year.
Support for Uyghurs and Hong Kong. Harris has also been outspoken on sensitive issues roiling the U.S.-China relationship. She regularly worked on legislation as a senator promoting human rights in Hong Kong. Trump signed into law a bipartisan bill she introduced with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) promoting human rights in Hong Kong and sanctioning Hong Kong officials implicated in "undermining fundamental freedoms and autonomy" in the territory. Harris' co-sponsorship of the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act helped make it law in 2020 and empowered the U.S. government to impose sanctions against "foreign individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses" in Xinjiang.
Taiwan defender. There is no record of Harris visiting Taiwan (or China) as either a senator or during her tenure as California's attorney general. She has, however, signaled that a Harris administration would likely continue unofficial support for the self-governing island, especially in the wake of increasing Chinese military threats. In September 2022, she said "we will continue to support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our long-standing policy."
Face time with Xi. Since becoming vice president, Harris has spoken with both Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te. Harris met briefly with Xi on the margins of the APEC Leaders Retreat in 2022 where she urged him to "maintain open lines of communication to responsibly manage the competition between our countries," she said in an X post. Harris met Lai at the inauguration of Honduras' President Xiomara Castro in that same year prior to Lai's successful bid for Taiwan's presidency in January.
Friend of the Philippines. Harris criticized China's ongoing harassment of Philippine vessels in Manila's waters in the South China Sea during a visit to the Philippines in 2022. During that trip, Harris visited an island adjacent to the waters where China's Coast Guard regularly menaces Philippine supply missions to its military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal and decried Beijing's "intimidation and coercion" in the region.
No upside for Beijing. Beijing's cost-benefit analysis of the Democratic and Republican party platforms mean that it will continue to avoid any substantive public messaging on the election. China's leadership is "still processing [Biden's decision], but sees fewer distinctions between Democrats and Republicans because neither is going to roll back tariffs or tech 'containment,' so their defensive —from their perspective —preparations continue," said former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rick Waters, the inaugural coordinator of the State Department's China House.
CHINA-UKRAINE
FIRST TRIP TO BEIJING: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will visit China this week. It will be his first trip to Beijing since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Stuart reports with Kyiv Correspondent Veronika Melkozerova.
Bring Beijing into the fold: Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the main topic of discussion will be “the search for ways to stop Russian aggression and China’s possible role in achieving a stable and just peace.”
The Chinese foreign ministry provided little detail apart from an announcement by spokesperson Mao Ning saying Kuleba will be in China from today to Friday. Kuleba's visit came upon invitation from his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, state media Xinhua reported.
What could happen? Kuleba’s visit comes as Ukraine grows increasingly concerned about its own future, as U.S. and European military support is not enough to give them the military breakthroughs they need against Russia.
Timing: The visit was announced a day after U.S. President Biden, who's been leading international efforts to help Ukraine, announced he would not seek reelection.
Bridges to mend: Kuleba's trip also comes weeks after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly criticized Beijing for helping Moscow sabotage a peace conference in Switzerland last month.
BÃœTI BOWS OUT
BRUSSELS' LEAD CHINA LAWMAKER RETIRES: Reinhard Bütikofer has shaped the European Parliament's — and Brussels' — stance on China like no other. A perennial critic of the Chinese Communist Party and an ally of the Taiwanese government, the Beijing-sanctioned lawmaker chaired Parliament's committee on China and led the Greens' work on the EU's anti-coercion instrument.
Some 15 years after the retiring politician first joined Parliament, the EU is "failing better" on China, Bütikofer told our colleague Antonia Zimmermann in an interview, citing Irish dramatist Samuel Beckett.
How Brussels toughened up on Beijing: Reflecting on the evolution of the EU's China policy over the course of his Brussels years, Bütikofer recalled that during his first term, an Italian conservative lawmaker advocating for appeasement chaired the China committee. Two terms later, Bütikofer took up that post — and was added to Beijing's sanction list.
The Parliament saw an "ever-growing centrality of discussions relating to China," he said, adding that "the number of dimensions where China plays a role has also only steadily increased."
And Beijing toughened up, too: Bütikofer recalled his first meeting with the Chinese ambassador in 2009, who had, to the MEP’s surprise, invited him for lunch. When Bütikofer sought to clarify his position on Taiwan at the beginning of the meeting, the ambassador brushed those divergences aside, commenting "alright, let's get down to business."
"No Chinese ambassador would say that anymore today," Bütikofer said. "The attitude toward the European Parliament has become more rabid."
Three key factors that defined Parliament's stance on China, according to Bütikofer. MEPs since 2019 started to address Taiwan more intensely, succeeded in stalling the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment and awarded their human rights prize to jailed Uyghur economist Ilham Tohti.
Lack of unity? Asked whether the bloc's lack of unity weakens its stance on China, Bütikofer argued there is "no unity, but more unity."
There's a "significantly higher" amount of unity on issues related to China than previously, he said — pointing to the EU's "pretty strong array" of trade defense instruments and its Economic Security Strategy, and its Global Gateway program that seeks to rival China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
On the Commission's probe into Chinese EVs: Bütikofer defended the EU executive's duties on imports of made-in-China electric vehicles against calls to be more cautious for fear of retaliation from Beijing. "There are two ways to escalate. You can provoke an escalation through aggression and through submissiveness. Appeasement is also a method to provoke escalation," he argued, adding that "defending the rules of international trade set by the World Trade Organization should not be denounced as escalation."
Brussels — which is "not as helpless as some pretend" vis-à -vis China’s economic policy — should conclude "partnerships of resistance" in key economic sectors, such as hydrogen technology and raw materials, with like-minded countries, according to Bütikofer, who cited Japan as an example.
Next term's priorities: Advancing the bloc's Economic Security Strategy, which seeks to thwart attempts by countries like China or Russia to beg, borrow or steal proprietary technology, will be a key task for the new Commission. The EV probe will be "pointing the way" on what's next for the strategy and the EU's efforts to combat unfair trade practices, said Bütikofer, arguing that it'll be key to "effectively refute propagandistic distortions." Correctly implementing legislative proposals — such as the Chips Act — and ramping up collaboration with partners will also matter, he said.
On working with the next U.S. president: "It would be unwise not to seize all opportunities for cooperation with the U.S., but it would also be unwise to ignore the fact that we are not always singing from the same hymn sheet, especially when it comes to trade policy," Bütikofer said.
What's next for Büti: While he has no "concrete plans" to announce — yet — the 71-year-old aims to keep working on China, Indo-Pacific and relevant issues.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
MELONI PLANS CHINA TRIP NEXT WEEK: Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is expected to visit China as early as next week to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to European diplomats. This comes as Meloni’s government is making enemies both in the European Union and NATO, while Rome is seeking to normalize ties with Beijing after its decision to pull out of the Belt and Road initiative.
BEIJING HITS OUT AT EU’S IRON LADY: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen‘s strong remarks last week to deter China from invading Taiwan “contain gross interference into China's internal affair,” Chinese Foreign Ministry’s top Europe official Wang Lutong said on X. “Playing with fire on Taiwan is highly dangerous. Meddling and even trying to join forces is by no means a right choice for Europe,” he added.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
CHINESE EMBASSY BLASTS PENTAGON ANTI-VAX OPS: The Chinese embassy in the Philippines has condemned the "severe damage" caused by a secret Pentagon operation that sought to sow distrust of China's Sinovac Covid vaccine during the worst days of the pandemic. "To spread disinformation through deceptive propaganda, and to frame and suppress other countries through manipulating public opinion and perception have become the U.S.' go-to tactics," the embassy's spokesperson said in a statement Monday. The State Department referred China Watcher to the Pentagon for comment. The Pentagon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
TRUMP PRAISES XI AS 'BRILLIANT', 'FIERCE': Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump took time during his rally in Michigan on Sunday to lard praise on Xi. “I say he’s a brilliant man … he's a fierce individual," Trump told the crowd. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are both "smart, tough —they love their country or they want to do well with their country," Trump added.
STATE CONDEMNS ANTI-FALUN GONG REPRESSION: The State Department marked the anniversary of the start of the Chinese government's "campaign of repression" against the Falun Gong spiritual movement in a statement on Saturday. Beijing has "targeted Falun Gong practitioners and their families in a campaign of abuses and rights violations" for 25 years, said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. The Chinese government rejected that allegation. "There is no so-called religious persecution in China at all —’Falun Gong' is not a religion, but an anti-human, anti-science, and anti-society cult which has caused serious health problems and deaths among people they duped," said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu. Beijing launched its anti-Falun Gong campaign in 1999 after thousands of the group's adherents silently protested in central Beijing in support of recognition of the group as an officially-recognized religion. That crackdown has included allegations that detained Falun Gong followers have become victims of a state-backed forced organ harvesting program.
SULLIVAN: CHINA CAN EXPECT NEW SANCTIONS: The U.S. government is preparing more punishment for the Chinese government's role on "team Russia" as a supplier of dual-use technology enabling Russia's war on Ukraine, said national security adviser Jake Sullivan. "You can expect to see additional sanctions measures [targeting China] as we watch this picture continue to evolve in the coming weeks," Sullivan said at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday. Beijing threatened unspecified countermeasures. "China firmly rejects all kinds of illicit unilateral sanctions… and will take all measures necessary to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Monday.
BLINKEN, WANG WILL MEET IN LAOS: Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Laos this week. "I speak to [Wang] on a fairly regular basis, and I'll be seeing him next week, in fact, in Laos," Blinken said at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday. The State Department confirmed a looming Blinken-Wang bilat in Laos. "We do anticipate that he'll have an opportunity to engage Wang Yi" at the ASEAN event, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink told reporters Monday. Blinken's short list of issues to raise with Wang and ASEAN counterparts include "the ongoing crisis in Burma … promoting adherence to international law in the South China Sea and speaking out against Russia's illegal war against Ukraine," Kritenbrink said.
IN HEADLINES
FINANCIAL TIMES: Taiwan's military drills turn serious as China threat escalates.
NEW YORK TIMES and WIRED CHINA: The billionaire criminal who secretly profited off Jack Ma's deals.
NHK: Marcos says Philippines won’t back down on South China Sea claims.
WALL STREET JOURNAL: China's leaders point to economic threats but show no sign of changing tack.
MANY THANKS: To editor Christian Oliver, reporters Antonia Zimmermann, Veronika Melkozerova, Eric Bazail-Eimil, Joe Gould, Miles J. Herszenhorn and producer Sasha Schroeder.
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