Why House Republicans are breathing easier

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Jul 16, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nick Reisman, Jeff Coltin and Emily Ngo

With help from Rich Mendez

Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) holds up copies of legislation.

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito told Playbook that Donald Trump is going to unify New York's Republican base and that they'll show up at the polls "stronger than we've ever seen." | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

New York’s battleground House Republicans were prepared for Democrats to make former President Donald Trump a liability this cycle.

But after a string of events that have gone Trump’s way, and an attempted assassination that rallied his supporters, the GOP is feeling much more confident.

It’s a major vibe shift for Republican incumbents who have spent the last year contending with a variety of Republican-induced pratfalls.

Swing district lawmakers in New York have had to answer for a parade of problems made worse by internal GOP squabbles, including a fight over the speakership and the ouster of George Santos.

“House Republicans have seen over the last 17 months or so that Washington, D.C., looked like chaos,” Long Island Rep. Anthony D’Esposito told Playbook. “House Republicans are at the point where we are a unified bunch.”

This is no easy task: Trump remains politically toxic for many voters in deep blue New York. A Siena College poll put his favorability rating at only 37 percent in the state, lower than President Joe Biden’s 42 percent rating.

But now Republicans are more than happy to draw a contrast with Democrats after two weeks of clamor over Biden remaining the party’s nominee.

“Donald Trump is going to unify the Republican base, they’re going to come out stronger than we’ve ever seen,” D’Esposito said.

POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin observed this phenomenon nationally, writing on Monday that opposition to Trump once rallied Democrats but support for him is now unifying Republicans.

In the Hudson Valley, Rep. Marc Molinaro also has expectations for a new version of Trump after Saturday’s shooting in Butler, Pa.

Molinaro pointed to Trump’s stated plan to rewrite his acceptance speech with a more conciliatory approach.

“I can’t imagine anybody coming this close to death, knowing that he had a target placed on him, hasn’t had a moment of introspection,” Molinaro told reporters during a virtual news conference.

That’s also in keeping with Molinaro’s own personal brand of campaigning, which takes a more decaffeinated view toward politics compared to other GOP officials.

Molinaro endorsed Trump this year, a departure from his earlier hesitation to embrace the smashmouth version of politics the former president practices. (Molinaro has said that he wrote in moderate former Republican Rep. Chris Gibson rather than vote for Trump in 2016).

The Trump factor still remains a worry for Republicans in New York, a state that is home to at least six battleground seats that could determine control of the House.

Still, Democrats are not necessarily expecting a kinder version of the Republican Party to emerge in the wake of bipartisan calls to lower the temperature.

Democrat Laura Gillen, who is challenging D’Esposito this year, said both parties must “stand up to extremism and hate.”

“But what we have consistently seen from Anthony D’Esposito is a record of prioritizing partisan politics over the best interest of constituents,” she said. “We need more people in Washington focused on fighting for hard-working families and engaging in bipartisan cooperation — that’s what I’ll do in Congress.”

And Trump’s selection of U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio can be just as alienating for voters, party officials argued on Monday.

Battleground New York, the Democrats’ joint fundraising committee, knocked Vance for his stance on abortion rights — a potential sign of where the party plans to focus its one strategy in the weeks ahead.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has kept his own conference unified on key policy issues, on X wrote Vance won’t meet the moment.

“He is an election-denying MAGA extremist,” Jeffries posted. “Another missed opportunity to bring America together.” Nick Reisman

IT’S TUESDAY: Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.

 

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WHERE’S KATHY? Making a public safety announcement in Glen Cove.

WHERE’S ERIC? Delivering remarks and presenting an honorary degree to writer Cindy Adams, then hosting his weekly press conference. In the afternoon, he will meet with the mayor of Benidorm, Spain, Antonio Pérez Pérez and participate in the PFNYC business leaders town hall, then he'll appear in a pre-taped interview on WHCR 90.3 FM’s “Rhythm and Soul Radio."

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Leviticus, bro. I’m Catholic.” — A bearded NYPD officer, to the Daily News, one of the recent cops to get a religious accommodation for facial hair, following a crackdown on beards on the force.

ABOVE THE FOLD

Mayor Eric Adams gives a thumbs up.

The mayor is in a comfortable position, looking ahead to reelection — at least when it comes to money. | Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office

ADAMS’ MONEY MACHINE: Mayor Eric Adams maintains a massive fundraising lead over his potential reelection challengers — but those would-be contenders are showing they’re on track to have the money to run serious campaigns, POLITICO reports.

Adams’ campaign brought in $1.1 million from 1,472 donors over the last six months, according to a filing published Monday with the New York City Campaign Finance Board.

When you factor in the $4.1 million in matching funds that Adams has already reported he will qualify to unlock in December, and his $3 million on hand, he’s already nearing the spending limit set for the primary by CFB rules.

“The campaign team will continue tomorrow morning planning our final push so that we will be in a position to finish all campaign fundraising by October, a full eight months ahead of the June primary,” Adams political adviser Frank Carone told Playbook.

However, Adams is continuing to raise for his legal defense fund — a reminder of the federal investigation into his 2021 campaign that still looms over the race.

  • State Sen. Zellnor Myrie raised $326,000 from 1,838 donors in just two months. His report would qualify him for just over $1 million in matching funds if he hits the threshold by the next filing in October.
  • Former Comptroller Scott Stringer raised $425,000 from 2,113 donors in six months, as Playbook reported Monday, and would also be in line for $1.7 million in matching funds if he too hits the threshold.
  • Comptroller Brad Lander, who’s seriously considering a run for mayor, raised just $198,000 from 1,167 donors over the last six months. But he’s been raising for two years and is set for $2.4 million in matching funds. 
  • Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is in a class of his own, as he weighs a run for mayor. He still has $7.9 million in a state account, but would be limited in how he might spend that on a city campaign. — Jeff Coltin
CITY HALL: THE LATEST

Carlina Rivera shakes hands at a rally.

The race to replace term-limited City Council member Carlina Rivera in Council District 2 is the hottest in the city. | John McCarten/NYC Council Media Unit

CD-2 MOST WANTED: The race to replace City Council Member Carlina Rivera is the hottest council race in the city, and the neck-and-neck fundraising from three top candidates proves it.

Sarah Batchu, program director at the nonprofit Fifth Avenue Committee, has been raising since December and leads the field with $46,000 raised so far. She expects to qualify for $205,000 in public matching funds already, more than the $184,000 limit the campaign finance board puts on the primary.

Andrea Gordillo, development director at The Clemente Center, is close to maxing out too after raising since February. She brought in $43,000 and is nearly done raising too, with more than $172,000 expected in matching funds.

Those first-time candidates are keeping pace with Assemblymember Harvey Epstein, who’s looking to switch to the seat on the East Side of Manhattan. He reported raising $38,000 in just two months, and is all done fundraising if he wants, after qualifying for more than $214,000 in matching funds.

The one non-incumbent council candidate with the biggest fundraising period though was Rachel Storch, the COO at the Fifth Avenue Synagogue, and a former Missouri state representative, who’s running to replace Council Member Keith Powers in a neighboring East Side district. Storch brought in nearly $60,000, but her large average contribution size means she’s set to qualify for a comparatively measly $76,000 in matching funds. — Jeff Coltin

More from the city:

New York City’s social services agency will soon begin slashing safety net benefits to the lowest-income residents if they fail to meet work requirements. (Gothamist)

A deputy commissioner for international affairs in the Adams administration, Kristen Edgreen Kaufman, leads a nonprofit that funnels millions into the conservative Manhattan Institute. (Hell Gate)

Some 89 percent of all New York City apartment units list a corporate owner, and it can take a year-long investigation to find out who actually is your landlord. (NYCity NewsService)

NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY

In this Aug. 18, 2020 file photo, U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) addresses the media during a news conference, in the Queens borough of New York.

Rep. Tom Suozzi will appear together with Gov. Kathy Hochul today for the first time since the 2022 primary. | John Minchillo/AP

SPEAKING OF UNITY: Gov. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Tom Suozzi have moved on from their political feud.

The governor, who was challenged by Suozzi unsuccessfully in a Democratic primary two years ago, is set to appear in Glen Cove today to announce more than $1 million for the city’s police department.

The event will be the first time the two have appeared together in public since the 2022 primary.

The money comes as Hochul has sought to address public safety and crime issues — a topic Suozzi himself raised two years ago during the primary.

It’s no secret Suozzi’s challenge of Hochul created friction between them. They reconciled when Suozzi traveled to Albany last year ahead of his successful bid to reclaim his old House seat.

“I am so grateful to Governor Hochul for supporting law enforcement and especially for today supporting my hometown police department!” Suozzi said in a statement to Playbook. “The Governor and I are both committed to supporting public safety and law enforcement.” Nick Reisman

FAFSA COMPLETION, COMES TO COMPLETION: The Board of Regents took the final step in ratifying a statewide mandate for the Federal Application for Free Student Aid at its meeting on Monday. The measure was passed down to the board from the state Legislature. It was part of a deal struck between Hochul and legislative leaders in the enacted budget earlier this year.

Now that the Board of Regents approved the measure, schools will be required to report data on the number of students that complete either a FAFSA application; a Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors for undocumented students; or an opt-out waiver. While the districts are required to distribute information about the applications and waiver and collect data on how many students filled them out, it is not a requirement for high school seniors to graduate.

At Monday’s meeting, many Regents welcomed the resolution, but some expressed concerns over collecting data on students, particularly undocumented students. Others shared concerns regarding guidance counselors who are already struggling with heavy caseloads in some districts.

Commissioner Betty Rosa noted that the state will be working with SUNY, CUNY, the Coalition of Independent Colleges and Universities, and organizations like My Brother’s Keeper to assist families and districts with the financial assistance process.

Chancellor Lester Young said he would like to see the state dedicate funding to pay for college readiness counselors so that school counselors are not asked to take on more.

“I think we are kidding ourselves if we think that we're going to make a dent in this using the same people, just giving them more to do,” Young said to the Board. “So this is something for us to think about as we go forward.” Katelyn Cordero

More from Albany:

Hochul is exploring a statewide ban on cellphone use in schools — a move she acknowledged may draw pushback from parents. (POLITICO Pro)

Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar’s newly announced run for city comptroller is raising eyebrows in Big Apple political circles. (New York Post)

As the state has backpedaled on congestion pricing, it has made no progress on nearly half of its other transit-related climate goals. (New York Focus)

KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION

Josh Riley, New York's 19th Congressional District Democratic candidate, speaks to supporters.

Josh Riley is running a new 30-second ad today as part of his run for Congress against Rep. Marc Molinaro. | Heather Ainsworth/AP

ON AIR UPSTATE: Democratic candidate for Congress Josh Riley is reintroducing himself to upstate voters with a biographical 30-second spot that will hit airwaves beginning today, Playbook has learned.

Riley, a former U.S. Senate counsel facing off again against Molinaro, is the first Democrat of the general election season to be on TV in the state. (GOP Rep. Nick LaLota was the first up on cable and broadcast; D’Esposito is up on cable, according to AdImpact.)

“Promise” portrays Riley as deeply rooted in the district he seeks to serve, noting he is descended from generations of local factory workers. It’s part of an initial six-figure ad buy that includes digital.

“I’m running for Congress with a promise: I’ll never take a penny from corporate PACs because I’m fighting for neighborhoods like Birdsall Street — not the special interests,” Riley said in a statement, referencing the street in Endicott that he was raised on.

Molinaro has attacked Riley as a Washington insider, this year and in 2022.

“I walk by Josh Riley’s house on Capitol Hill,” the Republican freshman told Playbook in a recent interview. “He’s a fraud and decided to parachute into the district thinking he could buy it.”

Riley’s first ad doesn’t make reference to Molinaro. Not surprising for a purple-district campaign, it also doesn’t mention either political party. — Emily Ngo

More from Congress:

City Hall mistakenly thought migrant buses were being sent to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s office in 2022, newly released emails reveal. (Gothamist)

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
NEW YORK STATE OF MIND

Cuomo’s campaign was reimbursed another $485,000 from the state in January for his legal defense, and he’s seeking even more. (POLITICO Pro)

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown criticized a $5 million infrastructure grant for sidewalks in the wealthy suburb of Clarence. (The Buffalo News)

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is already facing two legal challenges to a measure he signed Monday regulating transgender athletes. (POLITICO Pro)

SOCIAL DATA

Edited by Daniel Lippman

MAKING MOVES: Raphy Jacobson, press office intern with Attorney General Tish James, is joining The Wisco Project in a communications role.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT’s Shane Goldmacher … CBS’ Ben TracyJake Lemonda … Queens Public Library’s Lisi de Bourbon … NYCCFB’s Eric FriedmanAnna Scaife of the Office of General Services … Larry SeabrookSheel TyleLydia RebehnMatt Zingsheim(WAS MONDAY): Irin Carmon ... Thomas AminoffJori Epstein ... Gilbert S. Palter

Missed Monday’s New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here.

 

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