What’s next for Rubio

Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Jul 16, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Kimberly Leonard

Sen. Marco Rubio listens to former President Donald Trump speak at a campaign rally.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) listens to former President Donald Trump speak at a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on July 9 in Doral, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday. 

In the end, Florida was the problem.

Former President Donald Trump revealed here in Milwaukee yesterday that Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio was his running mate. That means Marco Rubio is staying in the Senate, at least for now.

Rubio’s Florida residency remained a consistent concern for fellow Floridian Trump and his campaign, two people familiar with recent conversations between the two men told Playbook. Though Trump is far from a stranger to litigation, he apparently was worried about potential legal hurdles that might arise with a Rubio ticket, given the 12th Amendment’s language that says president and vice presidential nominees need to come from different states or otherwise they will lose their shared home state’s electors.

It’s a setback for Rubio, who sought the White House himself in 2016 before being crushed by Trump. Rubio was supportive of Vance on social media, calling him a “fantastic” pick. “Americans will soon see this is an incredibly intelligent and talented man who is completely committed to making America great again,” he wrote. Rubio did not know that Trump wouldn't be picking him when he appeared alongside him at a rally in Doral, Florida, last week — when the former president teased him all night about being on his short list.

The decision freezes Florida politics — for now. It means Gov. Ron DeSantis won’t get the all-important job of appointing Rubio’s replacement, which would have had cascading implications for several 2026 races. And Trump is also signaling that he sees Vance as the heir to the MAGA movement, complicating possible presidential runs for Rubio or DeSantis in 2028. But it isn’t all bad news. Rubio remains a senior senator, currently serving as vice chair of the Intel Committee and as part of the Foreign Relations Committee.

And while Floridians in Milwaukee say they’re bummed Rubio didn’t get the nod, it’s his very experience in the Senate that makes them think he may be a top prospect for secretary of state if Trump wins in November. As a former 2016 presidential candidate and 2024 VP shortlister, Rubio would have the advantage of having already undergone significant vetting for a different position in a possible second Trump term.

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis called the possibility that Rubio would be considered for secretary of state a “no brainer,” and said that while he would have liked to have seen him make the ticket, he could understand why the campaign wouldn’t want to derail Trump’s recent momentum by facing possible new legal challenges.

Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) said he and Rubio campaigned together in 2022. “We had an ability to talk about geopolitical positions, the various nuances, and how domestic and foreign policies are intrinsically linked," he said.

When Playbook caught up with Palm Beach County commissioner Michael Barnett, who was the former GOP chair for the county, he had just heard the veep news. Not long before, he’d finished an interview with Newsmax where he’d expressed that he hoped the GOP ticket would be Trump-Rubio. He too raised the prospect to Playbook of Rubio joining a future Trump administration as secretary of state, where he could lead on issues from the border to Cuba policy, but added that he could still be valuable to Trump by remaining the senior senator from Florida.

“My understanding is he's always been supportive of President Trump, especially during his four years, on matters involving South America, Central America,” Barnett said.

THIS WEEK: Playbook is on the ground at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Send tips to kleonard@politico.com about Florida-focused get togethers, speaking slots and anything else of interest to our readers.  

 

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

TODAY IN MILWAUKEE — The Republican Party of Florida is starting the day with a breakfast headlined by Senate President-Designate Ben Albritton. They’ll also get a briefing from Trump campaign political director James Blair and chief pollster and senior adviser Tony Fabrizio.

This afternoon, DeSantis will participate in a Moms for Liberty town hall, and tonight there’s a reception for Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson.

LAST NIGHT IN MILWAUKEE — Patronis held a reception at the Red Rock Saloon with the Republican Party of Florida, where a live band played and a mechanical bull rocked in the corner. Guests took home RPOF beer bottle openers as swag. Patronis, who threw hats with his name on them into the crowd and gave brief remarks, has indicated he’s interested in running for governor.

He told the crowd gathered that he was “madder than hell” about the attempted assassination against Trump and said it made him “more determined to serve.” Asked specifically by Playbook whether he wanted to announce a run for governor right then and there, he demurred, though he acknowledged that Trump’s say in the 2026 governor’s race would be “critical” for whoever gets it.

SPOTTED: State Reps. Fabian Basabe, Randy Fine, Michelle Salzman, state Sen. Jay Collins, former state Rep. Anthony Sabatini.

REDISTRICTING FIGHT — “Florida urges judge to dismiss lawsuit over redistricting in South Florida,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders. “The Florida House and Secretary of State Cord Byrd last week urged a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit alleging that seven South Florida state House districts and three congressional districts are unconstitutionally gerrymandered. Attorneys for the House and Byrd disputed allegations that the Legislature violated equal-protection rights in the way it drew districts that would elect Hispanic candidates.”

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

VOTERS ABROAD — “Meet some of the Americans who live overseas and vote in Florida elections,” by Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry. “Lost in any story about Americans considering leaving the country because of our political situation is the fact that there are already more than a million Americans living overseas who voted in our last presidential election, and no state had more votes come from overseas and military members living abroad than Florida.”

FOOD FIGHT — “Bye-bye, bake sales? USF plan would restrict campus banners, fundraisers,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Divya Kumar: “The policy says all food and drinks at events ‘must be obtained from, packaged, and/or prepared by an approved food service vendor and anyone wanting to sell food must be licensed to serve food in the state of Florida. Any fundraising activity must also display where the funds are going and what percentage of funds will be donated.’In addition, the policy says any ‘literature’ distributed must contain the name of the party responsible for producing and distributing it, and may only be distributed in outdoor public spaces in manners that do not ‘litter the campus.’”

CAMPAIGN MODE

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: Co-Chair Committee on Platform Mike Waltz walks on stage on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes   place from July 15-18.

Co-Chair Committee on Platform Mike Waltz walks on stage on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Leon Neal/Getty Images

FLORIDA HIGHLIGHTS AT RNC — “U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz and state Sen. Joe Gruters, both in party positions, appeared on the [stage] to establish the party’s platforms and officially empower delegates to nominate their choice for President,” reports Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles. “Waltz, the first federal official from Florida to take the stage, spoke as vice chair of the RNC’s Platform Committee. ‘This platform is historic because it was written with one group of people in mind, the forgotten men and women of America,’ Waltz said.”

Earlier in the day, Rep. Kat Cammack spoke at the Republican Party of Florida breakfast, where she urged people to unify but also called on Democrats to apologize and take “accountability” after they called Trump a “threat to democracy” and President Joe Biden told donors it was time to “put Trump in the bullseye.”

Cammack described the assassination attempt as an escalation after tech companies tried to remove Trump from their platforms, Trump’s two impeachments then indictments and convictions. “And then two days ago they shot him,” Cammack said, though investigators haven’t yet announced the motive of the 20-year-old gunman.

“I don't know about you, but I’m very pissed off,” she said to cheers. “I think you can absolutely feel upset, anger — and still yearn for unity.”

In his NBC interview with Lester Holt, Biden did say that it was a “mistake” to use the word that he did. The president explained that he was referring to the need to focus on Trump’s agenda and falsehoods he made during the debate, but said his characterization of Trump as a threat to democracy was still true.

Later, during the evening lineup, Rep. Byron Donalds used his primetime speech to stump for “school choice,” sharing how his mother and grandmother saved and made sacrifices so that he could attend private school when he was growing up in Brooklyn.

“Donald Trump believes every parent deserves a choice and every child deserves a chance,” Donalds said onstage.

DESANTIS 2028? — “DeSantis to meet with Iowa Republicans, a nod to 2028 ambitions,” reports Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs, Stephanie Lai and Hadriana Lowenkron. “Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to speak at an Iowa Republican Party event during the GOP convention in Milwaukee on Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter. DeSantis’ presence at the lunch event is seen as a key sign of his interest in running for president in 2028, the people said, who were granted anonymity to disclose a private conversation. Historically, presidential candidates have wooed Iowans during the GOP conventions in advance of their White House bids.”

WHAT’S IN A WORD? — “Focus group: Florida swing voters confused by abortion amendment,” by Axios’ Yacob Reyes: “The language used in the referendum left some voters confused and thus unwilling to support it, even those who consider themselves ‘pro-choice.’”

— “Northeast Florida Republicans say RNC’s ‘tone has shifted’ following Trump’s assassination attempt,” by WJXT’s Scott Johnson.

— “Rick Scott raises over $3M in Q2, with double that for a super PAC,” reports Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski.

— “Laurel Lee raises $769K in Q2, brings cash on hand to nearly $1.4M,” reports Florida Politics’ Janelle Irwin Taylor.

— “RNC delegates confident of Trump win, DeSantis to join WA fundraiser,” by Seattle Times’ Jim Brunner.

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

Donald Trump raises his fist as he walks.

Former President Donald Trump raises his fist as he prepares to depart Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024. | Photos by Francis Chung/POLITICO

HOME SWEET HOME — “Florida delegates put Trump over top at RNC,” by USA TODAY Network — Florida’s C.A. Bridges: “Delegation Chair Eric Trump, the former president's son, cast the votes Monday afternoon.”

ANOTHER TRUMP WIN — “Judge dismisses Trump’s Mar-a-Lago classified docs criminal case,” by POLTICO’s Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Betsy Woodruff Swan. “Judge Aileen Cannon has dismissed the federal criminal case against Donald Trump charging him with amassing highly sensitive national security secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate and then obstructing government efforts to reclaim them. Cannon, in a 93-page ruling, concluded that special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment violated the Appointments Clause of the Constitution … Though the trial had already seemed highly unlikely to proceed before the end of the year, her ruling virtually ensures it. And if Trump wins the 2024 election, he’s expected to unravel the case altogether.”

In a statement provided to POLITICO’s Gary Fineout, Trump attorney Chris Kise said Cannon had “made the right call for America, adding that “Jack Smith must now respect the rule of law, shut down his office, and end this unconstitutional abuse of power.” Smith’s office said it will appeal.

Where were you … Trump was on the phone with Rep. Byron Donalds when he learned about the case being thrown out. “He was excited, obviously,” Donalds said of Trump. “He said, ‘Judge Cannon obviously made a great decision. Really happy with the decision, and now hopefully that puts a lot of this stuff to bed.’” Trump sat between Donalds and Vance when he reached the convention stage in Milwaukee after being formally introduced later in the night.

Rep. Matt Gaetz’s take… He sees Cannon as a potential Supreme Court pick, he wrote on X.

$4.5 MILLION AND COUNTING — “Top Florida GOP fundraiser launches GoFundMe for Trump rally shooting victims,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Jim Rosica. “Meredith O'Rourke of Tallahassee, also Trump's top finance person, is listed as the organizer of the online fundraiser, which on Monday morning blew past its $1 million goal with $4 million in donations listed.”

...HURRICANE HOLE...

TRYING TO MOVE FORWARD — “Battered by Hurricane Idalia last year, Florida village ponders future as hurricane season begins,” by The Associated Press’ Dorany Pineda and Rebecca Blackwell. “Almost a year later, many people in Horseshoe are asking themselves: Do I sell and move? Should I buy a recreational vehicle to live in on my property? Do I have the means to rebuild on stilts, as code requires? As they ask these questions, U.S. officials predict this year’s hurricane season in Florida will be busier than usual.”

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— “Miami-Dade investigating Copa America security failure in preparation for World Cup,” reports WLRN’s Daniel Rivero.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Rep. Michael BilirakisAlexis Fowler, ethics and compliance office with Citizens Property Insurance Corporation … former state Sen. J.D. Alexander ... Doug Martin, president of Gray Fox Strategies ... former Rep. Ross Spano.

 

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Kimberly Leonard @leonardkl

 

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