Why Harris and Walz are headed to rural Georgia

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Aug 28, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

2025 DREAMING — Who might be AG in a KAMALA HARRIS administration? Ankush Khardori runs down some of the names Democrats are chattering about in his new column up this morning. Among the mentioned: North Carolina Gov. ROY COOPER, Massachusetts Gov. MAURA HEALEY, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, TONY WEST, VANITA GUPTA, LISA MONACO, SALLY YATES, PREET BHARARA, DAMIAN WILLIAMS and DOUG JONES.

DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT — “Israeli assault in the West Bank kills at least nine, Palestinian officials say,” Reuters

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 22: Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris waves to supporters on the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Delegates, politicians, and Democratic Party supporters are gathering in Chicago, as current Vice President Kamala Harris is named her party's presidential nominee. The DNC   takes place from August 19-22. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

VP Kamala Harris will be on a bus tour today culminating in a rally tomorrow in Savannah, Georgia. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

THE DEMS WENT DOWN TO GEORGIA — Later today, Harris and running mate TIM WALZ kick off their first post-convention campaign swing in southeast Georgia. The trip is a bit surprising on multiple levels.

For starters, it’s sending a firm message that the Peach State is in play. We’ll just gently remind y’all that wasn’t the case a little more than a month ago, when many Democrats (including some on what was then the JOE BIDEN campaign) had all but written the state off.

As Myah Ward writes this morning, sinking time, money and human resources into Georgia is a high-risk, high-reward strategy for Harris but one that is being hailed by the state’s Democrats. As Rep. NIKEMA WILLIAMS (D-Ga.) put it: “Coming to Georgia is an affirmation that we are still a battleground state, we are still in this.”

But also consider just where exactly Harris and Walz will be spending time today and tomorrow — a bus tour through southeast Georgia culminating in a rally tomorrow in Savannah. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats win elections in Atlanta and its growing and diversifying suburbs.

Not so, says QUENTIN FULKS, the campaign’s principal deputy campaign manager. He’s a rural Georgia native — and the architect of Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s winning 2022 campaign in the state, where the strategy was not only to win big in the Atlanta metro, but to work hard to lose by less in other parts of the state.

It’s a playbook that Fulks is now trying to run for Harris after being frustrated for years that his party has been “ceding” voters to Republicans — including Black voters who constitute about a quarter of Georgia’s rural population.

“You have to really stave down margins and go places even when you don't think you can win it outright,” Fulks told Playbook yesterday. “You know you're going to lose that county, but just showing up there can sometimes be the difference between 5 to 10 percentage points, or sometimes just putting an office there.”

NOT JUST GEORGIA: Harris’ team is looking to pursue a similar margins-focused strategy in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania — where Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN and Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO handily outperformed national Democrats in rural counties — and especially in North Carolina, which looks demographically a lot like Georgia.

The Tar Heel State’s rural counties could be the key to Democrats unlocking its 16 electoral votes for the first time since 2008, when BARACK OBAMA drove up Black turnout to record levels and held down defections among rural white voters.

As NBC’s Steve Kornacki unpacked yesterday, there are 17 North Carolina counties with a Black population of at least 35 percent. Obama won them in 2008 by 15.5 points in the aggregate, while Biden won them by only 11.2 points in 2020: “Whether Harris posts an Obama- or Biden-like margin in these counties could end up being the decisive question in North Carolina.”

Harris, to be sure, still needs to count on favorable demographic trends (i.e. growth in cities and suburbs) and a turnout advantage to win both Georgia and North Carolina. But she is sending a message by traveling the backroads and building infrastructure there (seven offices with 50 staff members in south Georgia alone), and it’s not just Democrats who are noticing.

“We see them putting resources in Forsyth County, a heavily Republican county,” GOP operative BRIAN ROBINSON told us last night. “[Some] Republicans are sort of confused: “Why are they wasting this money?’ And I'm like, they're not trying to win Forsyth County. They're trying to cut the margins.”

SENDING A MESSAGE: While casting a wide net for votes is a simple enough campaign strategy, it happens to fit in with Harris’ broader political thinking going back years. In April 2022, Eugene explored her developing obsession with traveling off the beaten path for a national Democrat, making trips to places like Greenville, South Carolina; Brandywine, Maryland; and Sunset, Louisiana.

At the time, it was about reaching Americans that she talked about as being left behind by the federal government. She frequently rattled off mentions of Black, Brown, Native and rural communities while pushing for rural broadband and other initiatives.

Now, a rural bus tour is an acknowledgement that Harris and Walz have multiple new paths to winning 270 electoral votes compared to the Biden campaign. And since they are having no trouble whatsoever filling arenas in big, blue swing-state cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, a country diversion or two suddenly doesn’t seem like such a waste of time.

Robinson has his doubts as to whether it will work. But he also understands why they are doing it.

“It's not just about the voters in South Georgia they touch,” he said. “It's about the visual that goes to the rest of America of her being in the community, of her wanting to connect with rural America. … I think there's a symbolic push that goes well beyond the hands she shakes.”

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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IT’S HAPPENING I — Harris and Walz will conduct their much-anticipated first joint interview with CNN’s DANA BASH, airing tomorrow at 9 p.m.

IT’S HAPPENING II — DONALD TRUMP announced yesterday that he has agreed to the ABC debate with Harris next month, abiding by the same rules as his CNN debate with Biden. But if his Truth Social post suggested that the Trump-Harris dust-up over muting mics had been resolved, Harris’ campaign says it’s actually still an open question, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and John Koblin report.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — The NRCC is adding more than $1.5 million to its ad reservations as it plays both offense and defense in its bid to retain GOP control of the House. Texas’ 34th District, where MAYRA FLORES wants to unseat Democratic Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ, is newly on the list. And the NRCC is shoring up its reservations to protect Rep. ZACH NUNN (R-Iowa) in the Des Moines market.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — Sabato’s Crystal Ball is shifting its rating of the North Carolina governor’s race from toss-up to leaning Democratic, as JOSH STEIN builds a slight lead over MARK ROBINSON, J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik write. That leaves New Hampshire as the only gubernatorial toss-up; only one other race, in Washington state, is even remotely competitive.

There were some similar changes yesterday from the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor, who made the same shift in North Carolina and moved Washington from leaning to likely Democratic. In the presidential race, Amy Walter also moved North Carolina from leaning Republican to toss-up, while Minnesota and New Hampshire slid further out of reach for Trump.

 
WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House and the Senate are out.

What we’re watching … In the latest sign that the full story of Jan. 6, 2021, has yet to be told, new behind-the-scenes footage reviewed by Kyle Cheney reveals fresh and fascinating new details about how then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI and top Democrats reacted to the assault on the Capitol. The 50 minutes of tape was filmed by daughter ALEXANDRA PELOSI and turned over to the House Administration Committee by HBO this week. They show how the speaker focused almost immediately on Trump’s role in the riot and how to hold him accountable for it. “He’s got to pay a price,” she says in footage from the early morning of Jan. 7. In a statement yesterday, House Republicans said she did so to distract from “her failure to secure the Capitol grounds” ahead of the attack.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

On the trail

Harris will travel from D.C. to Savannah, where she and Walz will begin their Georgia bus tour.

Walz will also address the International Association of Firefighters convention in Boston at 10:30 a.m.

Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak about the economy and energy in Erie, Pennsylvania, at 3 p.m. and in De Pere, Wisconsin, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

 

CHECK OUT WHAT YOU MISSED IN CHICAGO!

On Thursday, POLITICO and Bayer convened four conversations at the CNN-POLITICO Grill at the DNC. The program featured Bayer’s Senior Vice President, Head of Crop Science and Sustainability Communications, Jessica Christiansen, as well as conversations with Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) about agriculture, food policy and how these issues will impact the November election. CATCH UP HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to members of the media at the US Department of Justice building in Washington, DC, on August 1, 2023. Donald Trump was indicted on August 1, 2023 over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election -- the most serious legal threat yet to the former president as he campaigns to return to the White House. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Special Counsel Jack Smith secured a superseding indictment against Donald Trump in his criminal federal election subversion case. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

JACK SMITH NOT BACKING DOWN — The special counsel landed a superseding indictment against Trump in his criminal federal election subversion case, a big step in Smith’s effort to keep the prosecution alive after the Supreme Court declared that presidents have sweeping immunity. The indictment shows that a new federal grand jury still found Trump’s alleged actions to overturn the 2020 election to be worthy of criminal prosecution, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report.

Smith streamlined the case somewhat by excising some particular allegations against Trump, but he kept all four charges — indicating that he thinks the high court’s new standard “doesn’t pose a major impediment.” The revised charges emphasize that Trump’s actions were taken in a personal, not official, capacity and, among other changes, omit allegations that Trump tried to use the Justice Department to subvert democracy Read the 36-page indictment

Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON spoke out about her conservative colleagues’ immunity opinion, indicating to Norah O’Donnell in excerpts from a “CBS News Sunday Morning” interview that the court had elevated presidents above the law: “I was concerned about a system that appeared to provide immunity for one individual under one set of circumstances, when we have a criminal justice system that had ordinarily treated everyone the same.”

ALL POLITICS

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Oklahoma Democrats flipped the Tulsa mayor’s office, as two Dems narrowly boxed out a Republican and headed for a runoff election. More from the Tulsa World

GOP’S BEST NEWS OF THE DAY — A new AARP poll finds the Maryland Senate race tied, with LARRY HOGAN and ANGELA ALSOBROOKS at 46 percent apiece. The moderate GOP former governor is pulling a quarter of Democrats.

AD OF THE DAY — Montana Democrat MONICA TRANEL filmed her latest ad inside an Airbnb that she says is owned by GOP Rep. RYAN ZINKE — blaming him for “profiting off the housing crisis.”

2024 WATCH

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a campaign rally at the Desert Diamond Arena, Friday, Aug. 23, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

It's unclear how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s embrace of Donald Trump will affect the race, but both campaigns see upside. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

RFK JR. IS HERE TO STAY — After dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Trump, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. has successfully gotten off the ballot in some swing states. But in four of them — Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin — Kennedy may not be able to withdraw, NPR’s Stephen Fowler reports. And those are some of the states in which polling indicated that Kennedy might most hurt Trump. The Wisconsin Elections Commission voted yesterday that Kennedy would remain.

But Kennedy is also here to stay as a prominent Trump surrogate: The Trump campaign is tapping him and TULSI GABBARD, both former Democrats, as honorary co-chairs of his presidential transition team, NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Rebecca Davis O’Brien scooped.

It remains to be seen how Kennedy’s embrace of Trump will affect the race, but both campaigns see upside. Democrats spy an opening to lump them together as weird, fringe conspiracy theorists who will turn off moderate swing voters, NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas reports. But Republicans are doubling down on reaching the disaffected, anti-establishment voters — many of them young white men — who might not otherwise vote Trump and could make a difference for him at the margins in a close race, Semafor’s Dave Weigel reports.

More top reads:

  • Whiskey tango foxtrot: At Trump’s event at Arlington National Cemetery, his campaign staff berated and physically pushed a cemetery staffer because the campaign was trying to film or photograph things against the rules, NPR’s Quil Lawrence and Tom Bowman scooped. The cemetery confirmed there was an incident and a report filed. But the Trump campaign pushed back vociferously: STEVEN CHEUNG called the allegation “defamatory” and threatened to release footage proving his point (they haven’t done so yet), alleging that the cemetery staffer was “clearly suffering from a mental health episode.” CHRIS LaCIVITA told the NYT that the person was a “disgrace.”
  • The left eats its own tail: The Sunrise Movement is still refusing to endorse Harris, WaPo’s Maxine Joselow reports, as it waits for a more concrete climate policy (and Middle East) platform from her. Yet it’s also making plans to contact 1.5 million young people to urge them to vote for her.
  • One to watch: Democrats are launching a new super PAC, Democracy Defenders, that will bolster legal efforts around election-related issues, NBC’s Mike Memoli reports. JIM MESSINA is the chair, and other people involved include NORM EISEN, TJ DUCKLO (leaving the Harris campaign) and ALLEGRA LAWRENCE-HARDY.
  • Quote of the day: The New Republic’s Greg Sargent had JAMES CARVILLE on his podcast, where the Democratic strategist says he’s grown somewhat bullish on Harris, he thinks North Carolina and even Florida are in play, and Dems are winning on culture-war issues and becoming the candidates of change: “The most thunderous sound in all of American politics is the sound of a turning page.”
 

POLICY CORNER

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks with reporters after casting a tiebreaking vote on the motion to proceed to the Inflation Reduction Act budget reconciliation bill at the U.S. Capitol Aug. 6, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO via AP Images)

A new poll shows that Kamala Harris has mostly erased Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID — With the cost of living still top of mind for many voters, the Harris and Trump campaigns are leaning into different kinds of messaging. Notably, Harris has mostly erased Trump’s advantage on the economy, per a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that finds them within the margin of error on the issue. Harris’ ads are going populist and personal, emphasizing her middle-class roots and time working at McDonald’s as contrasted with Trump’s billionaire ties, NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas writes.

On the flip side, Vance on the trail yesterday leaned into anti-China sentiment by trying to link Harris to Michigan state funding for an electric-vehicle battery project, The Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc and Craig Mauger report from Green Charter Township. He also criticized her and Biden more broadly for not doing more to tame inflation while in office.

On the issues: Harris and Trump have some common ground in embracing tariffs and industrial policy, NYT’s Ana Swanson writes, a break from old free-trade orthodoxies. But Trump would likely go much further, and in the eyes of many economists, his idea for a potential 10 to 20 percent tariff on all imports could “deliver a much more devastating jolt to world trade,” NYT’s Patricia Cohen writes.

Harris and Trump have huge differences on tax policy: WSJ’s Richard Rubin digs into her plans and finds that she seeks to effect a major shift of the tax burden from parents and low-income Americans to corporations and the wealthy. And they also bring “the sharpest clash in antipoverty policy in at least a generation,” NYT’s Jason DeParle reported earlier this week, with starkly different views of the government’s role.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

UKRAINE LATEST — “Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to present plan to Biden to end war with Russia,” by Reuters’ Olena Harmash and Tom Balmforth

WHAT WENT WRONG — “Biden approved Gaza pier despite internal pushback, watchdog finds,” by WaPo’s Dan Lamothe: “The troubled humanitarian mission faced early concerns within the U.S. government, including a warning that rough seas could pose serious challenges.”

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR officially paused relations with the American and Canadian embassies as the North American ambassadors criticized a judicial overhaul for undermining democracy, the L.A. Times’ Kate Linthicum reports from Mexico City.

THE BEST DISINFECTANT — “The Haditha Massacre Photos That the Military Didn’t Want the World to See,” by Madeleine Baran in The New Yorker, in a companion piece to season 3 of “In the Dark”: “When U.S. Marines killed twenty-four people in an Iraqi town, they also recorded the aftermath of their actions. For years, the military tried to keep these photos from the public.”

CONGRESS

HOW CONGRESS BROKE — Former Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), once seen as a Republican rising star, talks to WaPo’s David Ignatius about why he left Congress. His family being “swatted” late last year was the turning point, he says. “We’ve turned Congress into a ‘green room’ for Fox News and MSNBC, instead of being the key institution of government,” Gallagher adds.

PULLOUT FALLOUT — “Congress Demands Sullivan Testify on Afghanistan Withdrawal,” by Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Immigrant families in limbo after judge puts U.S. program for spouses on hold,” by AP’s Valerie Gonzalez and Gisela Salomon in McAllen, Texas

 

DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Vivek Murthy warns that many parents are in crisis and need more government help.

Brian Kemp is raising money for Donald Trump tomorrow in Atlanta.

Mike Lawler may have mixed up his Cuomos.

Tim Walz has thoughts about gutters.

Kamala Harris is getting support from YIMBYs, Swifties and celebrity chefs.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would like you to know that Cheryl Hines is not a Trump fan.

IN MEMORIAM — “Bob Carr, longtime Michigan congressman, dies at 81,” by Michigan Public’s Brett Dahlberg: “[The Democrat] gained a reputation as a critic of the Vietnam War. … Carr sponsored more than 2,000 bills during his time in Congress, but he also had some biting criticism of the body.”

“Arthur Gregg, Army trailblazer and Fort Gregg-Adams namesake, dies at 96,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer

NEW FELLOWS — The George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs has named its 2024-2025 Distinguished Terker Fellows: Marco Davis, president and CEO of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, and David Sanger, White House and national security reporter for the NYT.

MEDIA MOVES — Brandi Buchman is joining HuffPost as a reporter on the national desk, covering a justice beat. She previously was with Law & Crime. … Matt Berg has joined Crooked Media to write the What a Day newsletter, covering general politics and reporting for the podcast. He previously co-wrote and anchored POLITICO’s National Security Daily newsletter. … Morgan Phillips is now a politics reporter for Fox News, focusing on national security. She previously was a congressional reporter for the Daily Mail.

TRANSITIONS — United for Democracy, a progressive Supreme Court reform advocacy group, is adding Meagan Hatcher-Mays and Dan Kalik as senior advisers to expand the organization’s work ahead of the election. Hatcher-Mays most recently was at Indivisible, and Kalik most recently was at Swing Left. … Ian Choiniere is now senior advisor for government affairs for North America at Syensqo. He previously was director of product advocacy at the American Chemistry Council. … Richele Keas is now senior director of media relations at the Catholic Health Association. She previously was at the National Alliance on Mental Illness. …

The Economic Innovation Group has added Sam Peak as manager of labor and mobility policy and Courtney Mattison as director of operations and events. Peak previously was senior policy analyst at Americans for Prosperity. Mattison previously was VP of operations at the Taxpayers Protection Alliance. … Lisa Hansmann is now principal at VC firm Engine Ventures. She is also a senior adviser at MIT and is a Biden White House alum. … March of Dimes is naming Cindy Rahman as interim president and CEO and Amanda Williams as interim chief medical officer.

ENGAGED — Alex Damato, VP of policy at Charter Communications, proposed to Sam Runyon, policy comms director at ExxonMobil, on Saturday on the roof of the Met in NYC. They met in 2015 while both working for Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.). PicAnother pic

WEDDINGS — Andrew Briz, editorial director of newsroom engineering at POLITICO, and Maha Kamel, a program officer at the State Department, got married Saturday at DAR Constitution Hall. They met at El Centro in 2019. Pic by Samia’s StudiosAnother picSPOTTED: Isabel Dobrin, Rishika Dugyala, Kristen East, Kamran Rahman, Annie Yu, Taylor Giorno, Dana Shubat, Anthony Aslou, Sophia Aziz, Negina Sawez, Jeff Zimmer, Elain Shubat, Samin Mirfakhrai, Ahmad Khalil, Rashad Nimr, Rolando Cuevas, Suzanne Gaber, and Andrew McGill and Margaret Harding McGill.

— Andrew Hanna, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and a POLITICO alum, and Olive Eisdorfer, who recently completed a clerkship at the Supreme Court of Virginia, got married in Richmond on August 4. They met through a dating app. Pic by Sam EisdorferAnother pic

— Kamran Daravi, a government and public affairs consultant at Kamran Daravi Consulting, and Christy Ross, a senior account manager at Insight Global, got married Aug. 18 at the Ritz-Carlton in Laguna Beach, California. They met in 2017 when Kamran moved to D.C. to work in the Trump administration, where he worked in the White House Domestic Policy Council, the State Department and HHS. InstapicsSPOTTED: Roma Daravi, Eric Hargan, Charlton Boyd, Laura Nasim, Trevor Kellogg, Alex Campana, Hunter Morgen, Megan Small, Jim Frogue and Ashley Mocarski.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.) … WSJ’s Ken ThomasSheryl Sandberg Pat PelletierEmma Tomaszewski of Rep. Mike Thompson’s (D-Calif.) office … American Airlines’ Ben Halle R.C. Hammond … POLITICO’s Chinelle Ekanem … WaPo’s Silvia Foster-Frau and Marty Kady … NBC’s Sarah Carlson Brooke … Semafor’s Morgan ChalfantMallory JaspersGary ShapiroJessica Herrera-FlaniganEllen RatnerEllen Carmichael Gugenberger Hilary Halpern … former Defense Secretary Bill CohenThomas Winslow … FT’s Rhonda TaylorCallie Strock ... Ann Jablon ... Robert Simpson ... Lindsay Gill ... Arlet Abrahamian David Youngblood (45) … Robert Elman Janet McUlsky Jay Wegimont … American Conservation Coalition’s Brooke Ogles … White House’s Silas WoodsMichelle Crentsil

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