| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | Presented by |  | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → Liberals lose in Montreal. Cue the grumbles. → Is today the magic day for inflation's return to 2 percent? → The latest on Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET's security clearance. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
BY-ELECTION MADNESS — Two-hundred and forty-eight votes decided the winner in the high-stakes Montreal by-election that will get everybody talking.
Bloc Québécois candidate LOUIS-PHILIPPE SAUVÉ edged past the Liberal runner-up, LAURA PALESTINI, when all the votes were counted early this morning in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. The final poll result came in at 2:42 a.m. New Democrat CRAIG SAUVÉ, who pretty much made a victory speech long before the result was clear, trailed the winning Sauvé by 622 votes. → Final tally: Sauvé, 8,884; Palestini, 8,636; Sauvé, 8,262; Conservative LOUIS IALENTI, 3,676; Green JENCY MERCIER, 567; perennial independent by-election contestant JOHN "THE ENGINEER" TURMEL, 25. Stay tuned for a potential recount. Dozens of other independent candidates who joined the ballot in protest of the first-past-the-post voting system amassed more than a thousand votes. — A marked shift: The Bloc's Sauvé increased his party's vote share by nearly 6 points over the 2021 result. The NDP and Tories both improved, too. Palestini, not so much. She fell 15.73 points from DAVID LAMETTI's final election. — Status quo: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has insisted he's staying put, no matter the result in a formerly reliable Liberal riding a few removed from his own Montreal stomping grounds. But the grumbles from within, largely unnamed, will only grow. — Remember me? DON STEWART's arrival at his seat in the House on Monday offered an abrupt reminder of That Other Thing That Happened in June. The brand new Conservative MP entered the chamber to roars from his colleagues. Even the Liberals joined the standing ovation, a courtesy offered to by-election winners escorted into the chamber by their party leaders. But this winner's welcome came with a thud, several hours before polls closed in Montreal and Elmwood-Transcona, a pair of by-elections even more hyped than the Toronto-St. Paul's contest that spawned that summer to forget for Liberal morale. Trudeau wore a face somewhere between gracious and bemused. Not quite unleashed, though nobody was really looking at the PM in that moment. They will now. — The other by-election: New Democrats claimed a clear victory in the seat formerly known as DANIEL BLAIKIE's domain. LEILA DANCE fended off a Conservative challenge, maintaining most of Blaikie's vote share with a four-point margin. The Liberals were never competitive in the Winnipeg seat, but the hard-charging Tory candidate, COLIN REYNOLDS, scooped up most of the non-NDP votes. The Liberal candidate, IAN MACINTYRE, dropped nearly 10 points from the party's 2021 vote to 4.9 percent. The People's Party vote also cratered. — Status quo, part deux: Dance's win salvages NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH's claim, when he ripped up his governing deal with Trudeau, that only he can beat Tories. A loss would've been a disaster. But this was no blowout. — Vibe check: Most major parties can claim at least a moral victory this morning. The Bloc added to its caucus, the New Democrats held their ground in Winnipeg and put up big numbers in Montreal, and the Tories made it close on the Prairies. For the nervous nellies in Liberal ranks, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is the beginning. | | For your radar | | INFLATION WATCH — The last time inflation hovered this close to the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target, Conservatives at a policy convention had just rejected a motion recognizing climate change as "real." Two million Canadians had received a single Covid vaccine dose. In other words: It's been a while since March 2021. But August 2024 could be a cathartic moment in the country's years-long struggle with ever-higher prices. Just how cathartic? We'll know at 8:30 a.m., when Statistics Canada drops new inflation data for the dog days of summer. — Now there's a visual: Canada's consumer price index graph over the past four years resembles a Rocky Mountain peak — a pandemic-era climb that wavered between steady and spiky, and a gradual drop back to Earth. (And who can forget that brief period in 2020 when prices actually fell? Oh, for such cheap gas.) — The mythical mid-point: CIBC thinks year-over-year August inflation will come in at precisely 2 percent, a tick below the market consensus of 2.1. AVERY SHENFELD points to falling gas prices and shelter — aka housing — costs "finally showing signs of abating." → Talking points: Don't be surprised if a Liberal or two celebrates the Glorious Return to 2 Percent — taking plenty of credit, of course, for doing their part, much to the chagrin of their opponents. On Monday, FinMin CHRYSTIA FREELAND noted that wages have outpaced inflation for 18 months in a row. — Rate watch: BMO's DOUG PORTER has joined other economists in predicting an acceleration in the BOC's pace of rate cuts. The bank-econ consensus until recently was the central bank's target rate would settle at 3 percent in mid-2025. Now, Porter says TIFF MACKLEM will act "probably more forcefully, and almost certainly much sooner." He expects 10 consecutive cuts to land the target rate at 2.5 percent by July. Shenfeld goes further, projecting a rate of 2.25 percent by next June. | | | | A message from UnSmoke Canada: The best option is always to quit nicotine and tobacco use altogether, but smokers who choose not to quit should also be aware that alternatives exist. These alternatives still contain nicotine and are addictive. But, for those adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke, smoke-free alternatives provide an option that does not involve combustion - or "burning" - like smoking a cigarette does. Legislation can change how smoke-free products are regulated. | | | | | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | |
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE — The back-to-school vibes were real on Monday as the Hogue Commission returned for a monthlong stretch of public hearings.
— Not much on the docket: An opening statement from Commissioner MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE and the assorted lawyers repping various intervenors, followed by presentations from commission lawyers meant to define terms and frame conversations to come. The mood in the room was far from urgent. For example, the Bloc Québécois didn't show up to make a statement. When an AV technician dropped something, the clatter passed for the morning's most exciting moment. Hogue set the terms for this phase of her work into foreign interference's role in federal politics, which will focus on the present and future — not the past, which she dispensed with in earlier hearings. → Caveat alert: Hogue expects "overlap" with her earlier probe of what went down during the 2019 and 2021 elections. — Who's up today: A pair of MPs who sit on the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which calls itself "a place where like-minded legislators come together, united in the belief that only by standing together and demanding accountability from China, will democratic countries uphold the rules-based system." Conservative GARNETT GENUIS and Liberal JOHN MCKAY will testify, along with a rep from the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections. — Security clearance: Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET told reporters earlier this summer that he was filling out the paperwork for security clearance that would allow him to view unredacted national security reports on foreign interference. Without reading those reports, Blanchet can't add his two cents to the contradictory takeaways from JAGMEET SINGH, ELIZABETH MAY and a host of Cabinet ministers. WESLEY WARK, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, reminded us of Blanchet's efforts. Playbook asked the Bloc for a status update. A spokesperson only said Blanchet has submitted all the necessary paperwork. | | | Where the leaders are | | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU chairs a Cabinet meeting and then meets with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL THANI.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND attends the Cabinet meeting and then later on QP. — Playbook was not provided with an itinerary for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE. — A public itinerary for Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET did not make our inbox. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to the media at 2 p.m. in the House foyer, ahead of QP. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY attends Parliament. | | DULY NOTED | | | |  Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly on Tuesday in Ottawa. | AP | | Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY takes part in a fireside chat in Ottawa with YULIA NAVALNAYA, chair of the advisory board of the Anti-Corruption Foundation. — This evening, House Speaker GREG FERGUS hosts journalists and MPs at his Gatineau Park residence for an off-the-record reception. — iPolitics and Earnscliffe co-host a "Housewarming" for the Hill at the Métropolitain. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | | 
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen handed out the top jobs on her team today. | Jean-Francois Badias/AP | — Our colleagues in Europe have the very latest on URSULA VON DER LEYEN’s new European Commission. — LISA KASHINSKY, MERIDITH MCGRAW and ALEX ISENSTADT report: “DONALD TRUMP briefly followed the first attempt on his life with calls for unity. This time he’s going straight to a far more brazen message: Democrats’ rhetoric put my life in danger.” — “There is no such thing as immaculate home-buying, so let’s welcome the new mortgage rules,” the Globe’s ROB CARRICK writes on Monday’s updates from Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND. — Here’s CHRIS NARDI on the first day back: Conservatives accuse Liberal government of disobeying order from House of Commons. — KYLE BAKX of CBC News reports that Alberta is returning C$137M to Ottawa in unspent funds to clean up inactive wells.
| | | | A message from UnSmoke Canada:   | | | | | PROZONE | |
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In other news for Pro readers: — Okonjo-Iweala seeks accelerated process to win second term. — ‘Smoke and mirrors’: The US gambit to raise climate aid from corporations. — TikTok launches fight for its life in court. — U.S. Treasury unveils additional sanctions on Intellexa Consortium. — Newsom accuses Nevada, Arizona governors of parroting Big Oil talking points. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Crestview VP MUHAMMAD ALI, former MP MONTE SOLBERG and retired photographer ROD MACIVOR.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. — Spotted in the fishbowl: Sweaty people, wearing business garb on a warm day around the Hill for the first time in months; boisterous protesters, crowding the Wellington Street staircase to West Block (and pestering your Playbook host as though he were an MP); Liberal MPs MICHAEL COTEAU and YVAN BAKER, lunching at the West Block caf across from Tory MP LARRY BROCK; Tory MP RAQUEL DANCHO, back in the chamber with her first intervention since welcoming baby ELIZABETH into the world; author and teacher J.D.M STEWART, sitting in the House gallery to watch his brother, newbie MP DON STEWART, take his seat in the chamber; Liberal MP CHARLES SOUSA, sporting a post-summer beard; Government House Leader KARINA GOULD chuckling amid QP chaos with Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Tory House Leader ANDREW SCHEER; Nunavut Premier P.J. AKEEAGOK, also in the gallery; Poilievre's chief of staff, IAN TODD, walking out of the Bridgehead on Sparks (and holding the door for a Hill reporter). → Musical chairs: Conservatives shuffled the caucus seating plan in the House. SHUV MAJUMDAR moved up one from the back row. He replaced ROBERT KITCHEN, who dropped back to the sixth row. RYAN WILLIAMS and RANDY HOBACK switched spots. Hoback moved to the third row, directly behind Poilievre. Williams is in the second, nearer the speaker. SCOTT AITCHISON is still in the third row, but now four seats closer to Poilievre. PHIL LAWRENCE filled the second-row seat left vacant when LARRY BLOCK jumped up to the front row. The former occupant, RACHAEL THOMAS, is formally on the back row. Thomas recently had a baby, too (BRIELLE). GERALD SOROKA dropped from the fifth row to the sixth. → Later, at The Met: PMJT dropped by Former Cabmin DON BOUDRIA's 40/50/75 bash at the Métropolitain, which drew a healthy dollop of current and former colleagues, as well as the networking Hill crowd hungry for their fix on the first Monday of the House's fall marathon. Stay tuned for the mega-spotteds following tonight's "Housewarming" at the Met, which falls on the same evening as Speaker GREG FERGUS' reception for MPs and journalists at his Gatineau Park residence. Noted: Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE will headline a Friday evening party fundraiser at the Scarborough Convention Centre. Rural Prosperity Group, an initiative attached to Compass Rose meant to "deepen ties and foster dialogue with the federal government, businesses, and civil society," launched via Mailchimp newsletter. Former Conservative MP CANDICE BERGEN is chair. Former Sen. DENNIS DAWSON is vice chair. Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER introduced a private member's bill on online harms (which she teed up last week at a press conference, and via Substack). Media mentions: CP's DYLAN ROBERTSON is back at work on the Hill after a pair of surgeries … NYC-based Canadian reporter KALEIGH ROGERS joins The New York Times as a polling reporter. Farewells: FRANCES LANKIN announced that she will retire from the Senate on Oct. 21. In memoriam: TONY WHITFORD, former Commissioner of the Northwest Territories, has died. | | | | A message from UnSmoke Canada: Governments should help adult smokers quit. But quite simply, for those who choose not to quit tobacco and nicotine altogether, openly recognizing the potential of smoke-free products such as nicotine pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco playing their part in smoking harm reduction is something Canada needs to consider when it comes to legislative change. Recent regulatory decisions implemented by the Minster of Health severely limit access to those adult smokers who are looking to make an informed decision that’s right for them. Learn more how Canada can become a global leader and accelerate change. | | | | | On the Hill | |
9 a.m. The Senate national finance committee kicks off with an all-star lineup of watch dogs and commissioners: PHILIPPE DUFRESNE, CAROLINE MAYNARD, STÉPHANE PERRAULT, HARRIET SOLLOWAY, SANDY TREMBLAY and KONRAD VON FINCKENSTEIN.
11 a.m. The House operations committee will spend its first hour focused on rural and remote postal service. 11 a.m. The House human resources committee will study federal housing investments. 3:30 p.m. The House finance committee is studying changes to capital gains measures. On the witness roster: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Confédération des syndicats nationaux, Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec and NOW Housing. 3:30 p.m. The House ethics committee will discuss committee business. 3:30 p.m. YULIYA KOVALIV, ambassador of Ukraine to Canada, will be at the House defense committee as it holds a briefing on the threat analysis in Ukraine and the Baltic region. 6:30 p.m. The Senate energy, environment and natural resources committee will meet to take Bill C-49 through clause-by-cause consideration with help from PATRICK BUTLER, JESSICA GINSBURG and SIDNEY PETERS. Behind closed doors: The House official languages report will look at a draft report on economic development. The House health committee will focus on committee business and also consider a draft report on breast cancer screening guidelines. Other House committees meeting in camera: science and research; transport, infrastructure and communities. The Senate’s transport and communications committee will look at a draft report on climate change and also consider a draft agenda. The Senate fisheries and oceans committee will discuss a draft agenda. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Monday’s answer: On Sept. 16, 1974, 32 women were sworn in as the first female officers in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Read more on Troop 17, which got a shoutout in Monday's question period (and tipped off at least one trivia correspondent).
Props to ANGUS TOPSHEE, NANCI WAUGH, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS, MCCARTNEY LEE, LAURA JARVIS, LISA KIRBIE, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY and AVIGAIL RUCKER. BRANDON RUSSELL and BOB ERNEST also landed Friday’s Q. Today’s question: “You don’t come here and piss on my rug.” Name the PM who was summoned to Camp David to catch heck for comments he made on U.S. soil. Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
