| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | APPOINTMENT VIEWING — We’re excited to note Eugene is among the reporters who will question VP KAMALA HARRIS later today in Philadelphia at an event organized by the National Association of Black Journalists. Harris’ appearance follows DONALD TRUMP’s July 31 appearance at NABJ’s annual conference in Chicago. Eugene will be joined on the panel by WHYY’s Tonya Mosley and TheGrio’s Gerren Keith Gaynor. Watch live at 2:30 p.m.
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House Democrats are concerned that Speaker Mike Johnson could find himself in a position where he could obstruct the counting of electoral votes. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | WWMJD? — Democrats have spent much of the 2024 campaign reminding Americans of what happened on Jan. 6, 2021. But on Capitol Hill, some are already getting worried about Jan. 6, 2025. They are hoping that Harris will win in November and they’ll flip the House, too — meaning it would likely be HAKEEM JEFFRIES holding the speaker’s gavel as the process of certifying a Harris victory gets underway. But it’s another scenario that is nagging top House Democrats — that Speaker MIKE JOHNSON might keep his majority as Harris wins and find himself in a position where he could obstruct the counting of electoral votes and possibly throw the election to the House under the constitutional provisions of the 12th Amendment. Johnson, after all, led House Republicans in filing an amicus brief after the 2020 election asking the Supreme Court to essentially overturn swing-state results, an effort personally blessed by DONALD TRUMP. Now, he’s leading a charge suggesting that undocumented immigrants are voting en masse in what Democrats view as a coordinated effort to sow doubt in the election and lay the groundwork for mischief. “It would be silly to ignore the history here,” said Rep. JOE MORELLE (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee who has led his party’s pushback on GOP voting claims. Adding to the anxiety is that Johnson, in the post-election period, might also be in a leadership dogfight where he might be compelled to prove his mettle to MAGA-minded members — not to mention Trump himself — by pledging to challenge the election results. A Johnson aide dismissed the Democratic concerns as an attempt to raise money to flip the House and said they were part of an alarmist narrative that helped lead to the two assassination attempts targeting Trump. Other Republicans close with Johnson told us they doubted the speaker would succumb to Trump’s wishes so easily. They noted he withstood MAGA pressure on Ukraine funding, and they drew a distinction between writing a legal brief as a back-bencher and moving to overturn the will of voters as a constitutional officer. Other roadblocks are in place, as well: For one, it will be Harris, as vice president, who will actually preside over the certification of electoral votes, as MIKE PENCE famously did in 2021. And under a 2022 rewrite of the Electoral Count Act, the law governing the process, it’s now much harder to object to the counting of votes. Rather than a single member, it now requires 20 percent of each chamber to proceed with an objection. Yet Democrats are still fearful, fretting over unresolved ambiguities in the Constitution and in the law surrounding the certification process, as well as the fact that Johnson could be in charge for Republicans come Jan. 6. Rep. JAMIE RASKIN, the Democratic constitutional law expert who tangled with Johnson over his 2020 brief, paraphrased the ancient Greek poet HESIOD: “He has the muses say something like, ‘We know how to tell the truth when we want to tell the truth. And when we want to tell lies, we know how to tell lies that seem like the truth.’ And that's how I view Johnson’s jurisprudence.” While Raskin and other Democrats were loath to speculate about how exactly Johnson and other Republicans could possibly wreak electoral havoc after voting is done, we’ve heard the following concerns circulating:
- That Johnson could try to rewrite the rules that govern the Jan. 6 vote-counting session. For the past century or so, the two chambers have unanimously adopted boilerplate, bipartisan procedures for the count. Our colleague Kyle Cheney suggested Johnson could decide to try to write his own, inserting provisions that would open up new avenues to challenge the results, or simply refuse to adopt a process at all, creating ambiguity and doubt.
- That Johnson could muster enough Republicans to object to certain contested slates of electors — and, if the GOP also holds the Senate, possibly gather the votes to throw those slates out. If neither candidate receives 270 electoral votes, the House could have authority under the 12th Amendment to choose the winner.
- That Johnson could delay the vote-counting session. While the Jan. 6 date is written in law, it’s the speaker who has to call the House to order first. Democrats worry that Johnson could essentially push pause — much as Trump allies worried after the 2020 election that then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI might do the same and go to the courts. (A related fear: What if there is no speaker at all on Jan. 6 — as there was two years ago, when KEVIN McCARTHY was struggling to win the gavel?)
- That Johnson could challenge the Electoral Count Act entirely. Under a novel legal theory, he could ask a court to rule that the law on the books cannot bind Congress from exercising its power under the Constitution — again defaulting to the process laid out in the 12th Amendment.
Again, these worst-case scenarios are all quite unlikely — starting with the improbability of a situation where Harris wins and Republicans have majorities in both chambers. But the chances for havoc during the electoral vote count four years ago seemed unthinkable, too. So Democrats aren’t leaving anything to chance. Senior lawmakers are already privately meeting to game-plan for all the different ways the post-election period could go sideways. They’re also raising their worries with donors, urging them to give generously to make sure the party flips the House and nips any potential drama in the bud. “I have faith in people,” Morelle said, sharing his belief that Johnson would “do the right thing” in a contested scenario. “But we’re prepared for any eventuality and … we’ll be in a position to press forward and make sure there’s a peaceful transfer.” Read more on Dems’ Jan. 6 anxieties Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at noon and will take up a long list of bills at 2 p.m. — including emergency spending for veterans benefits, as Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley reports — with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up several bills, including a push to roll back the EPA’s tailpipe emissions rule. The Senate is in, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings. It will have procedural votes on a judicial nomination at 11:30 a.m. and Democrats’ in vitro fertilization bill at 3:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- The House is back today and will try to feel its way forward on a continuing resolution as Oct. 1 approaches. Sunday’s foiled assassination attempt of Trump (more on that below) has introduced a new complication: a potential Secret Service funding boost. As CBS’ Scott MacFarlane reported, the Biden administration had already put in an anomaly request for the agency before the incident. And senators said yesterday they were ready to meet the Secret Service’s needs — if they can be justified. Many members don’t see the agency’s failings as a fiscal matter. More from NBC
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: As the clock ticks closer to America’s semiquincentennial, more than 200 members today are joining the Congressional America250 Caucus — a bipartisan, bicameral group that is set to support America250, the official entity changed by Congress with organizing the anniversary celebration. Co-chairs include Sens. SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO (R-W.Va.), LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.), as well as Reps. ROBERT ADERHOLT (R-Ala.), DWIGHT EVANS (D-Pa.), MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) and BONNIE WATSON COLEMAN (D-N.J.).
- GLP-1 weight loss drugs are the biggest thing in pharmaceuticals in a generation, and no one in Congress has been watching their rise (and their rising prices) closer than Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.). Today Sanders is convening a HELP Committee discussion on the prices that Americans (and taxpayers) are paying for blockbuster drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, particularly vis-a-vis prices in other countries, ahead of a high-profile hearing next week with Novo Nordisk CEO LARS JØRGENSEN.
At the White House Biden will take part in a wildfire briefing at 11:15 a.m. and will meet with World Bank President AJAY BANGA at 2:15 p.m. On the trail Trump will have a town hall in Flint, Michigan, at 7 p.m., moderated by Arkansas Gov. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS. Harris will travel to and from Philadelphia, where she’ll take part in a campaign event at 2:30 p.m. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak in Sparta, Michigan, at 1:30 p.m. and in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will speak in Macon, Georgia, at 10 a.m., participate in events in Atlanta in the afternoon, and have a rally in Asheville, North Carolina, at 6:30 p.m.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRUMP CARDS
|  Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe Jr. said his agency’s plan to protect Donald Trump was “exemplary.” | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — Alleged gunman RYAN ROUTH fired no shots and never had a line of sight to Trump before he was apprehended and later arrested, the Secret Service revealed yesterday, per ABC. Local law enforcement released body-camera video of the moment Routh was arrested. Though acting Secret Service Director RONALD ROWE JR. said his agency’s plan to protect Trump was “exemplary,” as Kimberly Leonard and Josh Gerstein report from West Palm Beach, Florida, he also acknowledged that the Secret Service is undergoing a “paradigm shift” to be more proactive in the wake of the Pennsylvania assassination attempt against Trump, per NBC. Though Trump was unharmed this weekend, experts tell Betsy Woodruff Swan that the incident was another security failure. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON wants the task force investigating the Butler shooting to broaden its remit to West Palm Beach, NOTUS’ Oriana González and Reese Gorman scooped. Biden and Trump had a call yesterday about bolstering the former president’s security. And security has increased at Trump’s Chicago hotel, Liz Crampton, Shia Kapos and Emily Ngo report. Reporters are starting to dig deeper into Routh’s history — and the golf club’s. Early in Trump’s presidency, officials warned him about the safety of his golf courses, which have long worried the Secret Service and security experts, WaPo’s Carol Leonnig, Josh Dawsey and Isaac Stanley-Becker report. That left him more vulnerable to an unstable person like Routh, who we’re now learning was the subject of a tip to the FBI in 2019, was distrusted by other foreign fighters in Ukraine, was again flagged to U.S. authorities in 2022, wrote a book that encouraged Iran to kill Trump, and “was well known for getting into armed confrontations with police.” Politically, the fallout from the incident could offer Trump another momentum reset after a bad debate week, Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook and Stephanie Lai report. But Trump and Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) lashed out at Democrats: Trump blamed his political opponents for inflammatory rhetoric, and in the same Fox News interview declared them “the enemy from within.” His running mate wrote in an essay on X that calls to tone down rhetoric were really just as much about fighting censorship from Democrats and the media. More reading: “Trump, Outrage and the Modern Era of Political Violence,” by NYT’s Peter Baker … “‘The most complex, dynamic and dangerous threat environment I’ve experienced,’” by Betsy Woodruff Swan, Kyle Cheney and Natalie Allison … “Suspect pleads not guilty in alleged murder-for-hire plot against Donald Trump,” by ABC’s Aaron Katersky (yes, that’s another threat) THE ECONOMY INTERESTING BELLWETHER — Nevada is often a canary in the coal mine of sorts for the national labor market. But right now, things in Las Vegas and Reno look pretty good, Reuters’ Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir report — a sign that the landing may indeed be soft. JUDICIARY SQUARE IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED — An Arizona judge rejected MARK MEADOWS’ bid to move his criminal election subversion prosecution from state to federal court, CNN’s Zachary Cohen and Devan Cole report. His effort to do so in Georgia has also failed previously, though he’s taking it to the Supreme Court. 2024 WATCH
|  Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-Minn.) bills were the highest profile on AI in elections. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — Though the worst fears about artificial intelligence-generated deepfakes have yet to materialize in the election, the most pivotal period is yet to come — and Congress has failed to act, Mohar Chatterjee reports this morning. Last year, spurred by warnings from experts, lawmakers from both parties sounded ready to take action to protect elections from AI, perhaps by banning deepfakes or requiring content labels. But nothing looks likely to happen before November, and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is already talking about extending those efforts beyond 2024. It’s a remarkable flameout “for what was supposed to be a top priority — protecting elections from a powerful tool of deception,” Mohar writes. The upshot is that this election’s only guardrails against AI shenanigans are the states that have passed legislation and enforcement actions from the FCC and FEC based on existing rules. But those are limited. More top reads:
- Endorsement watch: Harris’ meeting with the Teamsters yesterday was tense at times, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman reports, as she was pressed on the Biden administration’s labor record. Union president SEAN O’BRIEN said an announcement of its endorsement — which is still not guaranteed — could come as early as tomorrow.
- Getting down to business: Vance and Walz will both address the nation’s CEOs at a Business Roundtable meeting this week, Hailey Fuchs reports.
MORE POLITICS SURVEY SAYS — Republican KELLY AYOTTE leads Democrat JOYCE CRAIG by 3 points in the tossup New Hampshire gubernatorial race, per the latest Saint Anselm College poll. But Democrats look fairly comfortable in the state’s two congressional contests. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — House Democrats are starting to grow more confident on playing offense in the Midwest. And now House Majority PAC is pumping $1.4 million into ads to try to unseat Rep. JOHN JAMES (R-Mich.), Sarah Ferris reports for Nightly. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Did a TV ad for Montana Republican TIM SHEEHY doctor his shirt to remove the logo of a think tank, whose views on privatizing public lands Democrats have seized on? HuffPost’s Chris D’Angelo says there’s a pretty strong case for it. AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Smoke rises after an Israeli shelling on an area in Lebanon next to the Israeli-Lebanese border, Sept. 16, 2024. | Leo Correa, File/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — It’s a familiar story by now: The U.S. is having trouble succeeding on multiple fronts to tamp down violence and tensions in the Middle East. The latest struggle came yesterday when AMOS HOCHSTEIN warned Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU against ramping up the simmering conflict with Lebanon, per Axios’ Barak Ravid. No matter the U.S. entreaties — which included Hochstein telling Israel that a broader war wouldn’t help displaced Israelis get home — Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT responded that “military action” was “the only way” forward, NYT’s Liam Stack reports. Gallant, who is separately in danger of being fired by Netanyahu, threw cold water on hopes of a negotiated solution. As fears of an Israel-Hezbollah war grow, the Israel-Hamas war is still raging, of course. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN travels to Egypt today to try to make progress toward a cease-fire, per Bloomberg’s Iain Marlow. But it’s a sign of how dim the prospects look that the U.S. is not projecting an optimistic message about the path to peace; Blinken doesn’t have a stop in Israel on his schedule. More top reads:
- Immigration files: The latest federal data shows Border Patrol arrests at the southern border ticking up nearly 3 percent to more than 58,000 in August, per the AP. The number indicates that Biden’s radical restriction of asylum is continuing to keep illegal border crossings relatively low — but also that the significant declines may be leveling off.
- It’s official: U.S. troops are all out of Niger, other than embassy guards, per the AP.
VALLEY TALK TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — At the much-anticipated opening of TikTok’s legal bid to block the law that would force its ban or sale, a panel of federal judges had some skeptical questions for the company, WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Eva Dou report. But they also lobbed tough questions at the government, making it hard to tell which way the case might go. BEYOND THE BELTWAY CLICKER — “Migrants Are Settling in Thriving Blue Counties — Not the Red Counties That Need Them,” by Bloomberg’s Elena Mejía and Shawn Donnan
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kamala Harris was endorsed by Scientific American. Donald Trump launched World Liberty Financial. Rachel Vindman deleted that tweet. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is being investigated by NOAA over that whale carcass. Joaquin and Julián Castro had quite the 50th birthday celebration. Cole Emhoff had quite the 30th birthday celebration. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Plans unveiled for National Mall memorial for slain journalists,” by WaPo’s Michael Brice-Saddler FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Next week’s Clinton Global Initiative meeting in NYC is announcing a host of notable new bold-face names who’ll speak at the Clinton Foundation event. They include first lady Jill Biden, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Katie Couric, Stephanie Ruhle, Clarissa Ward and Bill Gates. — Chris Cillizza is launching a new show in November on Monumental Sports Network, where he’ll talk with politicians and other Washington figures about the role sports have played in their lives. Early guests will include Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) and Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.). OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a casual meet and greet at APCO’s global HQ yesterday morning with LA Mayor Karen Bass: Mignon Clyburn, Tim Roemer, Brandon Neal, Dan Meyers, Judy Bird, Engel and Candice Tolliver Burns, Michelle Russo, Rick Wade, Jess O’Connell, Kelly Williamson, Courtney Crowder, Janette Yarwood, Belinda Coleman, Yolanda Caraway and Richard Caesar. TRANSITIONS — Robyn Jackson is joining Ford Motor Co. as government affairs comms manager. She previously was comms director for Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and is a Dan Kildee alum. … Lindsey Baxter Griffith, Alex Breckel and Evan Chapman are launching Clean Tomorrow, a new nonpartisan nonprofit to boost clean energy and slash emissions, Robin Bravender reports for Pros. The trio are Capitol Hill, Energy Department and environmental advocacy alums. … … Kate Riley has been named the next president and CEO of America’s Public Television Stations, as Patrick Butler retires. She had previously been VP of government and public affairs. … Karen Suárez Jiménez is now an associate for D&P Creative Strategies. She previously was a CHCI postgraduate legal fellow and worked for the Senate Indian Affairs Committee. WEEKEND WEDDING — Mitchell Rivard, chief of staff for Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), and Scott Zumwalt, managing director at Bully Pulpit International, got married Saturday at the St. Regis in a ceremony officiated by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Mitchell’s former boss. The couple met in 2014 at an event hosted by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Reps. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) and Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Jim and Janet Blanchard, Michigan state Rep. Jason Morgan, Andrew Bleeker, Storm Horncastle, Tammy Haddad, Jesse Rodriguez, Scott Mulhauser, Phil Elliott, Jeff Marootian, Abby Livingston, John McCarthy, Matt VanKuiken, Liz Johnson, David Reid, Laurie McKay, Nick Hawatmeh, Andy Flick, Liz Boyd and Matt Mazonkey. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) (91) … Steve Scully of the Bipartisan Policy Center … David Litt … Richard Wolffe … NBC’s Henry Gomez … Anna Taylor … WaPo’s Rachel Roubein … Anthony Coley … Kimberley Fritts of Cogent Strategies … Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum … Natalie Edelstein Jarvis … Sarah Selip of 917 Strategies … Marin Cogan … Scott Nulty of Shield AI … Cole Lyle … Brian Patrick of Rep. Bill Huizenga’s (R-Mich.) office … Don Baer (7-0) … Palantir’s Morgan Gress Johnson ... Doug Johnson … former Justice David Souter … Carol Kresse … retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni … Courtney O’Donnell … former Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) … Matthew Boyse … David Wade … Steve Kerrigan … POLITICO’s Crystal Thomas … Stephen Power … Courtney Laydon … Sam Weinberger Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly identified the organizers of a “week of action” on behalf of the Kids Online Safety Act. It was organized by parents and advocates. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
